How long do you think that the USA has left before it collapses?

Collapse takes decades. It's happening now and has been since 9/11.

- Reagan did shit that was easily reversible but never got reversed
  W committed us to multiple wars costing trillions of dollars and making us even more enemies than we already had
Why particularly 9/11?
- Clearly defined shift in foreign policy that also began hollowing out our economy in earnest, very easy to point to as a tipping point

I'm not a doomer but the US it outlasting us. The Russian empire had almost a century of peasant rebellions before the USSR. China had longer. We're not even close.

To be fair technology (particularly communications technology) is far more advanced and people are way more urbanized
- Yup, those are factors that make it harder. A society that is not used to rebellion isn't going to do a big one like that. Not without smaller ones preceding it, normalizing it. I don't know how we get there. Maybe summer of 2020 was a step to it. Maybe Rodney King was an earlier step.
What's different now is climate change imo.

This is leftist cope pretty much.

Some people say China will collapse imminently.

USA is strong in many ways.

Idk a lot of it is living here and looking around going “This can’t possibly continue like this indefinitely, right?”
- Don't worry, things can and will get much, much, much worse. Most Americans have a roof over their heads, plenty of corn syrup to fill their bellies and enough treats to keep themselves occupied. The US is definitely declining, but an outright collapse is still very far away.
- Mate, look at countries with way worse conditions than the US, like Haiti, yet shit has been continuing indefinitely
- I do keep thinking about cost of living, there has to be some pressure release right? Some relief?
USA is in hyper late stage capitalism. It is anything, but strong
- Is your movement recruiting and training over 60,000 fighting men per year? https://recruiting.army.mil/pao/facts_figures/
  Does your movement control the international monetary system?
  Does your movement tap the internet backbone?
- hyper late stage capitalism
  
  It's actually in disco neofeudialism and will therefore last a few hundred years more before Brasil becomes a hegemonic power, read theory
I don't think the "US will collapse any day now" in the way anti China propaganda uses the term collapse. But the US is in the midst of its collapse. Decline is a better word to grasp the pace that this is occuring at but i think collapse is the appropriate word for what is happening.
- That's fair.
  It was the unipolar hegemon, and now it's still the biggest power overall, but there are other players. And African nations etc. have a choice of who to affiliate with; the US-led West isn't the only option.
What are you then? Who told you to come post here?
- You posted a question in askchapo, where comrades invite answers to their questions.... I am sorry if my answer made you upset.
- Who told you to come post here?
  We don't always require an invitation to come in; that's a common misconception about us.

!remindme 10 years

Defining collapse, to me this means US balkanization.

IMO it will happen when the US gets a few large scale climate related disasters like the Texas snowstorm etc but over a dozen(more than 1 a month) going on continuously for about 3-5 years would be enough to destroy the country.

I believe it is a certainty because the US government is not capable of mobilizing resources to deal with these disasters, at the end of the day the capitalist class will not allow it. This already happens anyway, Puerto Rico got fucked and Trump withheld resources, nothing was done anyway. You'll be told to leave or flee or get fucked. Everyone will cheer when Florida goes underwater but will they deal with the consequences of mass migration etc? You can expect headlines like this in the future Trump complains to senators that Puerto Rico is getting too much hurricane relief funding If this isn't a sign of collapse than what is it? The "richest" nation in the world counting pennies for disaster relief while e.g giving unlimited no questions asked funding for the military.

Anyway as for the timeline, well climate change is showing signs of nothing except getting worse, nothing is being done and nothing will be done until it is too late, you can look into solar reflection is the goto example, I am all but convinced the US will do it unilaterally and fuck up everything because literaly better to gamble the fate of the world than to talk about changing capitalism, degrowth etc.

So if you want a date? It is hard to say, we are on the very pessimistic path, you can look at all the depressing headlines if you want confirmation, everything is always "faster than expected" or "scientists shocked" etc even accounting for the usual MSM sensationalism this message is even stronger among the academic circles, before 2050 is already quite likely, but almost certainly "collapse" will happen before 2080.

Climate change dictates this will happen and to argue against it like saying its "cope" and whatnot would be saying that a country going through multiple disasters and mass migrations has not collapsed yet because technically there are still 50 states and some geriatric dipshit 80 year in sitting on a table somewhere being called a "president".

Long enough to outlast your youth and the best years of your life, if you still are in the prime of it.

At least one more century just going off of historical examples, the most recent one being the British Empire/UK

probably before i would be able to get money out of a retirement account

Gotta define collapse.

The domestic system of governance? Already collapsing.

The ability of the state to project military power? A decade or two for most of the world, an extra decade for South America.

A formal entity called the United States with structure derived from its constitution? Could be a thousand years.

A formal entity called the United States with structure derived from its constitution? Could be a thousand years.
My pet theory is that the US will eventually go the way of the HRE. Just like there was an emperor, there's going to be a president in Washington DC for centuries to come. He's going to be a very important person who'll have soldiers in fancy uniforms saluting him, but the centre of real political power will have moved somewhere else.
- Like boardrooms?
- And I just thought about Rome again

This reminds me of how there's multiple dates that historians place the end of the Roman Empire at and all say something slightly different. The date picked creates a certain interpretation for the end of the empire. For example, some often use the moving of the capital to Constantinople under Constantine (i think like 310-ish AD) as the end of the Empire in the sense of a cohesive entity centered in Rome as we think of it. The Western Empire still existed for 100+ years and the Eastern Empire for like a 1,000 years after that. I think that paints an interesting picture of what decline looks like on that scale.

Timeframes in the modern era are sped up for a lot of reasons (communications tech, and climate change mostly) but its really hard to put a timeline on something like decline and collapse, even in history, let alone when trying to predict future

In a lot of ways, i feel that what American Balkanization is going to look like has already occured to a significant degree. The Federal government took little real action or responsibility during COVID, and is choosing inaction as a minority party overturns abortion rights ceding more power to states. They're also inactive while wild slates of anti-trans laws get passed in the most reactionary states and their extreme abortion restrictions. The Federal government's policy is basically "your on your own ~~citizens~~ consumers." I think that process will continue, but i think it looks more like this than states breaking away and forming new countries. I think the federal government will continue to be a middle man for collecting and dispersing tax dollars and running the military to keep the war economies going and facilitate imperialism. When the US can no longer do the later

we'll be deep in collapse. Hard to imagine when it will be, or what that will look like

Something i noticed in Texas thst i think highlights another aspect of this process. The US has a rural urban divide in political affiliation. In Texas the Republican stare government has been trying to extert more power over the major city governments that are run by democrats. They withheld Federal disaster relief money from Harris County (Houston) after Hurricane Harvey and recently took over Houston's school district. No federal intervention on these overstepping of powers.

- I’m not sure how useful parallels with Roma are
  I agree, i think in general people make too much out of percieved historical parallels. Thie point i was trying to make was more about how difficult it is the create a timeline of decline and/or collapse even in history, where we already know what happened, let alone when trying to predict the future.
  I don’t really see the US state collapsing
  I agree with this in the sense that i don't think the Balkanization will take place in the US in the way its traditionally concieved of, with US states breaking off and forming their own countries. In a sense the state would still be intact - collecting taxes, dispensing money to the states, and operating the military. But i do think tge federal gov has shown a trend of doing nothing on what should be national problems (pandemics, environmental disasters) and i think that will continue.
  Without UBI or some kind of concessions to the working class, the state probably will collapse,
  I'm not as optimistic about concessions generally, but i could see what you're talking about, and if anything remotely approaching a concession happens it would probably be the kind of UBI you're talking about. It feels less like an outright concession than a necessity to make the kind if society where "you will own nothing and like it" work the way the ruling class want it to, but thats probably me splitting hairs over the term concession.
  The other possibility is outright fascism, although I think the demographics of the US make a fascism based in white supremacy or Christianity basically impossible now.
  I hope you're right about that. I think we could see some states have christo-fascist governments in the kind of soft Balkanization i think is most likely. Minority rule in the US is the norm, not the exception, and there have been conscious moves on the stare level for over a decade to strengthen minority rule byvthe right in every state with a Republican government. The repeal of the protections imposed on firmer Confederate states by the Voting Rights Act by the Sumpreme Court opened the floddgates after they were already pushing legislation to promote minority rule.
  Like i said I'm not as optimistic about concessions happening at this point in the US, and i think that a lack of that, plus the ruling class's insistence on confrontations with China and Russia say a lot for the possiblity of seeing fascism rather than concessions.
  It's really hard to predict. It will probably he slower, more boring, and far worse than whatever our best preductions could possibly be.

However many days I have left to live +1 more day. Because that’s how much the universe hates me.

If collapse is defined as swathes of the country either being abandoned or placed under indefinite martial law and if current trends in terms of housing, education, health, wages, pollution, infrastructure and climate change continue

Then around 20-25 years, 10-15 years if the worse case scenarios for climate change become reality

if the worse case scenarios for climate change become reality
essentially guaranteed at this point

Going based on pure vibes and ass-pulling:

Irreversible decline: We are here.
"The sick man of [continent]": By 2050s.
Losing most imperial possessions: A few decades after "The sick man of [continent]"
Minor Balkinization (secessionist movements): ~2070s
Major Balkinization (rump state surrounded by successor republics): 2100-2110s
Formal end of these United States of America: The rump state could easily truck along for centuries, especially if one of the successor republics manages to conquer the rump state and retroactively claims itself as a continuation of the rump state.

My vibes-based analysis is unable to incorporate climate change into its analysis, but climate change will obviously speed up the timeline.

How long did it take the Roman empire to collapse? I think about this daily

How often do men think about the Roman empire?
Men: Here's how the Spartacus rebellion could have succeeded...

us federal government says significant chances of societal collapse due to climate change in certain areas plus civil unrest by mid 2030-2040, so ill say if its going to happen any time soon, itd be then

Based on?
- Idr, was a report posted here at some point from the department of homeland security I believe
- In addition to what others have answered, Gwynne Dyer's talk Geopolitics in a Hotter World talks a fair bit about this too. Most governments are preparing for climate unrest in the coming decades.

Long term possibility (aka 'the bad ending') is that the fash project comes to full fruition and the US is able to circle the wagons in the north and stay alive another 50 years before the full biosphere collapse.

Short term possibility (but not a 'good ending') is that a black swan event happens, like a nuclear exchange or a devastating disaster like the clathrate gun going off, and supply chains are disrupted so heavily and so fast that the federal government can't maintain power. This I could see happening ten years from now.

a devastating disaster like the clathrate gun going off, and supply chains are disrupted so heavily
isn't clathrate gun = instant extinction?
- maybe just a clathrate gigafart then, like from the permafrost

What does that look like to you? The US's capacity for imperialist projection is currently retracting rather quickly. Is that collapse? Does it need to be totally incapable of anything other than local projection?

Or is this internal? Truly dramatic political change? Revolution? An end to the formal entity The United States of America? Food systems failure?

About 47 minutes, if we're lucky.

Sooner than you'd think, longer than you'd expect

Too fucking long

at least 10 minutes idk

Long enough to kill us all

depends how thing go in 2024, 2028 and 2032

What do you mean?

The country itself won't collapse anytime soon. But it will probably balkanize and become a smaller version of itself in the coming future. I could see that happening by the end of this century or earlier.

Not in my lifetime (genX) nor my kids lifetime.

Decline is happening but will take a while for collapse.

Really depends on the strategic calculus of the Global South. Give the US too long and they'll establish manufacturing capabilities again. Move too quickly and the white wing is gonna start mass murdering everyone.

What is white wing ?
- it's just a pun, referring to right-wing white reactionaries as the white wing
- Right wing autocorrect?

I dunno, how long did it take for the Roman Empire to be at its peak to when it just became references in the history books of the nations that came after?

About that long.

The height of Rome was 117.
Constantinople fell in 1453.
- That’s why the question of “how do you define collapse” is important.
  New York, Pennsylvania and Maryland might well hold on as “The United States of America” with DC as the capital and something based in our constitution for another thousand years, but if the rest of the country has broken off I’d call that a collapse.

5 long

less than you think

how long? NOT LONG. because what you reap... is what you sow...

depends on what you mean by "collapse." i think we're probably going to see a constitutional amendment that essentially declaws most or all of the non-military powers of the federal government in the next 50 years. i think we're already seeing the mass social murder of the poor, and i believe it will escalate without stopping as long as it doesn't touch the middle class.

Which mass social murder?

The rest of the world will have to collapse before the USA does.

Somewhere between two years and two millenia

The US will carry on.

We on the other hand can only serve to grease the gears of the great death machine if nothing is done to stop it, and there are always enough bodies left to keep this going.

You really believe that the USA is eternal?
- I dont believe it’ll be this sudden collapse, it seems to keep finding ways to stay on top no matter who the costs are, even when it’s its own citizens. Americans arent “god’s chosen few’ just last on the list of bodies to throw in the grinder.
I just know you got a fuckin boner typing that
- I dont the like the cope of thinking the US will allow itself to collapse instead of sliding into fascism cause it makes it seem like the thing to do is await inevitability.
  If you do nothing, nothing will happen.

If we mean secessionist movements start breaking off, I feel like it’s be anywhere from very late 20s-early 30s if a full economic depression hits, or the 50s/60s if it declines at a linear pace

I think this baby's got a lot of juice still kickin' in her. Probably at least another 50-60 years.

Going to copy my answer from lemmygrad

The US has many years left. If anything, Europe will "collapse" before the US as the USA consumes it through the process of vassalisation to keep itself alive. First the US will try win the the inter imperial rivalry between itself and it's allies (the EU and it's biggest member states, Australia, South Korea, Japan), which seems to be going well on the EU front given the Ukraine war. The EU is being successfully vassalised and has lost energy independence after the nordstream gas pipeline bombings, and is being forced to give it's current weaponry to Ukraine, and buy US made weapons to replace those outgoing arms. Then the US will shift focus to China, and try to beat them.

I know people want to be optimistic, but the US is still a superpower. If you asked communists in the 1950s and early 60s, they probably also thought that the US had little time left, given the progress of the USSR, the rise of anti colonial movements, and the US still struggling massively with internal issues. But in the end, it was the USSR that collapsed, and the neoliberals got their "end of history" moment, until 9/11 happened.