I know we generally kind of reject electoralism here but how do yall see 2024 going?
Some of trumps recent remarks are keeping me up at night again. The Israel situation was keeping me up a l little bit ago and now it's this dip shit again and his psychopath cronies
I'm projecting big losses for the working class, like every election, of every year.
Of course that's why i generally don't put much stock. But the blood poisoning comments are the most blatant comments he's made in awhile
Trump: “They are poisoning our blood! Believe me! Very many people are saying it!”
Biden: “We live in a racial jungle, Jack!”
Trump/Biden: kills shitloads of workers to enrich capitalists every day of their presidencies*
Yea and bidens response was "I don't like the language but he's not wrong"
He was talking about securing a future for American children last time, he's been an open fascist for 8 years now, nothing has stuck yet. 2016 he led crowds in chants of "lock her up" about jailing his political opponents and stadiums followed him in chanting it, because as soon as liberals indicated theybwere offended by it it was the most effective message in the country.
In fact he's now quadrupled down on it because once again his bases top priority is he continue to do things that upset liberals and now that liberals have told them you can't say immigrants poison the blood of a country he will lead his crowds in chants of it going forward.
Trump wins and it's the Dem's fault as always because they have done absolutely positively nothing of value for any real person in America or the world at large. They could do literally anything, literally ONE FUCKING THING, and beat Trump. They could raise the minimum wage. They could pick literally any human rights issue that's under attack in the US and make it law. They could give everyone $1000 bucks. Anything. Literally anything, and they would win.
They won't though, so they're gonna get destroyed and they're gonna blame us.
I for one place the blame squarely on the parliamentarian.
Bit idea, we all vote for the parliamentarian since they apparently have more political power than every elected dem combined.
it's the Dem's fault as always because they have done absolutely positively nothing of value for any real person in America or the world at large
Record numbers of unemployed
Record numbers of homeless
Record high student loan debt
Housing market is fucked
Infrastructure is fucked
None of those plans have done a god-damned thing aside from making people like you pull a
Student Debt Relief
Good punchline.
Great, so can you explain how any of those things materially help people continue to pay rent, healthcare, student loans (I can't wait to hear how you think that the student debt relief somehow actually did anything material for student debt relief), buy groceries, etc? I'd love to hear you explain how that fancy list of hilariously named things actually accomplished anything.
don't forget curing cancer
None of those helped anyone at all
Trump's going to win and is going to try to do a lot of scary shit but this is a country that couldn't mail out paper masks in a pandemic. He'll manage to kill some people via spectacular violence and institute a geographically patchy reign of terror but he will neither produce a broad effective program nor will he have institutions capable of executing it
The country will of course be further destabilized (and who knows what that'll entail) but perhaps more importantly what Trump will do is grind the United States of America's inner workings to a halt and, God willing, asphyxiate it like an immobilized shark
death to the bourgeoisie and their collaborators, long live the red terror
armchair warrior
@
Armchair bootlicker
How's it feel suckin' down boot for a party that would feed you to a pack of rabid coyotes if it improved their election odds by .000000001%?
You are just another RuZZian Putinist/Trumpist useful idiot depressing the Democratic turnout. For the sake of democracy, delete your account.
i cannot tell the future, except in this one, extremely specific case:
In the year 2024, I will not be casting a ballot for Genocide Joe
Biden realizes the decisive Arab vote in Michigan and Minnesota will cost him the election more than the Zionist-Jewish vote and pivots to Palestine. In a moment of tenuous solidarity, the USS Gerald Ford allows Ansar Allah militants aboard so as not to be the direct force enforcing the blockade on Caesaria Port.
If Biden chews Khat live on air and says "Death to Israel" I will vote for him
The United States will be the same country in the same decline.
I think Bernie can still win if he starts doing …
Biden won 2020 by tricking younger voters to come out and vote in The Most Important Election of Our Lifetime™ and they're not dumb enough to fall for it again. Why keep voting for a party that is incapable (and unwilling) to fulfill its promises once they're in power?
Well actually the president doesn't have any real power you see
Well wait, some '@' lib here was telling everyone how Biden actually did a lot of great things for everyone
And you know it was a lot of significant, meaningful change when you have to scream about how it's amazing
The only thing I can tell you is that the media circus will be much less. Trump has less of a platform and the democrats don't want Biden to speak publicly. Neither side has a real primary or the possibility of another candidate.
It is wild to me that Trump's existence as public figure was attached so tightly to his Twitter account
His twitter account and the massive amount of attention he was afforded by the media whenever he opened his mouth. That is no longer the case. In part because lf the trial, in part because of the last two elections
I think between fast descent into full fascism and break neck speed descent into full fascism that the latter will win.
imo it's too early to tell. Americans have the memory of a goldfish, I don't think anything that happens before the final candidates for each party are chosen matters. Sure the dems have absolutely lost some people over Bombin' Biden's support of Israel, but I don't think that really matters to most american voters. It's looking like it'll be Biden vs Trump again, but without a bunch of residual goodwill towards biden and Trump has the advantage of not being on the defence this time (court cases notwithstanding but I don't know how much those will factor in. If anything he can spin it as being under attack by the entrenched powers etc etc). Right now if I was a betting man I'd say trump has the lead, but with still almost a year to go anything could happen.
Bad
Opinions of the youth don't matter and they'll go amnesic in six months time regardless, older middle class cracker suburbanites vote more, and they don't care about genocide or border camps, they'll vote for Biden because of the money the US is sucking up from Europe and the residual aftershocks from Roe vs Wade
Trump will be too bogged down with court battles to focus on effective anti-dem campaigning, and for every Arab vote Biden loses he'll pick up evangelical zionist dominionists from bumfuck Michigan
Turnout will be slightly lower but not unprecedented, the zionist lobby will recover in a years time, pro-Palestinian voices will slowly and quietly be purged from media and academia, and all the pseudo-left culture commentators will be activated and start preaching for the cult of harm reduction
Biden will win a comfortable victory
Fuck, now I want a drink.
I don't get everybody saying trumps gonna be bogged down.
Everytime he gets charged with something it galvanized his base.
Other republican nominees actually started attacking him until Colorado ruled he can't be on the ballot because he was proven to have tried to instigate an insurrection (don't kill the messenger that's what the ruling said not me) and every news anchor on msnbc and CNN agree its good for Trump and all his opponents are back to defending him.
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
I'm probably just biased because I think trump is hilarious but I feel he's gonna blow Biden out the water
Sometimes he can be because he's such a buffoon. Nothing funny about what he's said recently though. Stuff that people like Stephen miller have most likely been feeding him
Idk, kinda feeling like Trump's chances are/will be dwindling with all the shit dragging him down. Biden has kept the peace domestically relative to Trump - I feel like everyone was pretty tired from the constant turmoil during Trump. The economy is kinda in the tank in some regards, and better in others, but for the suburbanite voting block dealing with housing prices I think Joe has lost a lot of support. I was thinking I'd throw Joe a bone for pulling out of Afghanistan, forgiving at least part of student loans, and showing up at some picket lines... But this genocide shit tanked it for me. What good is domestic stability if it's at the cost of others? Then again, he hasn't started any new wars and has held to peace agreements elsewhere... Trump might decide to invade the Congo or some crazy shit.
At the end of the day I just really hope both Trump and Biden croak from heat stroke at outdoor rallies in what will probably be the new hottest summer ever.
Yep.
But I will say though, the Afghanistan pull out wasn't exactly botched either. The nature of the occupation itself was always going to end similar to what happened.
I still wouldn't bet on Trump not launching an invasion, he's pretty impulsive. And he'd probably just continue the proxy war and genocide. Fuck I hate this country.
You're more optimistic than I am.
Biden barely won and has done nothing to expand his support since then, and has actively pissed off anybody who cares about the climate, workers rights or genocide.
If my assessment passes as optimism, we are fucked.
been following that ettingermentum guy that Chapo has interviewed before for his electoralism takes from getting the 2022 election right and I think he thinks that Biden could probably just barely squeak out a win against Trump rn. Dems best chance is to take Biden to the farm upstate and kill him and run literally anyone else, except Hillary, against Trump.
I think Biden barely winning is plausible, but the question is what happens after that? Another January 6-tier meltdown, civil war, nothing?
Another meltdown, but even more of a joke. If Trump couldn't pull it off as a sitting president, he absolutely won't pull it off from the outside
While I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats are dumb enough to push Biden, I think he'll be replace with someone more palatable in the convention.
Not to ever give dems too much credit but this seems like the worst of all strategies.
Spend a year blasting the message "you might not like him but you have to vote for him because it's the only way we stop fascism, oh wait no actually this other guy you also don't like is ACTUALLY the only way to stop fascism so now you have to vote for THEM even though you don't like them"
the election will be determined by a future crisis, and not israel / palestine. there are black swans and white crows.
Trump's back
the swing states are literally the only part that matters, ignore popular vote polling.
I'll be shocked if he keeps MI because Palestine
Georgia...the less said about how rabid the local GOP is the better. I'm convinced they'll pull something absurd to try and "stop the second steal" and end up in court again.
NC is probably safe Biden.
The split votes states are probably not going to change much.
Minnesota shouldn't be considered a swing state imo, but people keep it on the list for some reason.
Nevada, also under the I don't understand this state category.
Pennsylvania, I see Trump winning here. Biden is especially hurt by RFK if he actually ends up on the ballot here (no clue why)
Wisconsin seems increasingly down with the local GOP's shit.
I think there will be 6 close races. WI, MI and PA in the North and AZ, NM and GA in the South. A straight north-south split would leave Trump a few points shy of 270, he'll need at least one of those northern states to win. It will be very close and I agree that Pennsylvania or Michigan goes to Trump since democrats can't do electoral math. If the Dems lose both while taking the Southern swing states the two could tie at 269 which is the funniest outcome.
Wisconsin is absolutely sick of the GOP and hasn't voted for a Republican in a statewide election since Trump won, except for fuckin Ron Johnson for some reason. The GOP has a crazy advantage where they can lose the popular vote and get close to a supermajority in the state legislature, but since you can't gerrymander the vote for president I'd say it will probably go Biden, especially since there aren't many Muslim voters and a lot of the decisive voters that let Trump win had been Obama voters, so it was probably more of an anti-Hillary vote in 2016 than outright support for trumpism. That said, the 35% of people who are still enthusiastic Trump fans are incredibly motivated and increasingly willing to work with straight up Nazis
The national security state vastly prefer Biden over Trump, so Biden will most likely be president barring him being incapacitated somehow by virtue of being a walking corpse knocking on death's door.
I'm really not sure, I think there is a pretty active crowd that hates Trump more than Biden. However, I see Israel being a potentially killing blow. I'm like 70 percent trump 30 biden at this point.
Trump will likely win, white people in America are basically all high in Hitler particles
Democrats double down on Biden and sit back as their voters bad-jacket anyone that defies them.
Germany:
The AfD get huge wins in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg. The likelihood of them actually getting into government is low. The Left party and the patsoc splitter BSW (name likely to change) will take votes from each other and probably both manage to get either barely above or below 5%.
The Socdems and Greens eat shit, and if the FDP's membership vote on dissolving the traffic light coalition, the early elections will almost certainly lead to a grand coalition of a reaganite CDU and the SPD. The left party is also highly likely to get like 3% or 2% and probably wither away in such a scenario.
Austria:
I don't know enough about their politics, but I'd give the KPÖ (Communist Party) a 50% chance of getting into the national council. They had a big surge, but the socdems elected a Bernie Sanders style sheepdog that gave off the impression of being more left wing than he is. The fash will probably win, but the government will be formed by the conservatives, socdems and maybe liberals in one alliance.
Rest of the world:
Putin probably wins a huge landslide. The yanks wallow in misery from their own elections. A man named Chad won't win the Chadian election.
Brandon wins with a comfortable lead over Desantis. I think the legal shit Donnie is in might actually prevent him from winning. The people yearn for brunch.
Even if Trump somehow isn't the nominee, which absolutely isn't going to happen, Niki Haley is looking like number 2 after DeSantis has been conclusively shown to be a weird ass elf shoed wearing freak who has been flip flopping on culture war stuff.
But trumps gonna be the nominee, even if he's in jail (literally 0% chance that happens) he'll still be the strongest republican candidate.
I can't see Desantis winning nomination unless some genuinely earthshattering stuff happens in the Republican party where some state parties go rogue and put him on the ballot instead of Trump. Or weird stuff happens with electors going rogue like in 2016, like those democratic electors voting for Colin Powell, or the one vote for Ron Paul from Texas.
And honestly, maybe at this point. I don't think Trump is truly well liked among the GOP ghouls, they just care about winning.
I just picked desantis as the nearest competitor to trump but I suppose it could be nikki haley or whatever. I personally think they still need trumps energy but could be wrong. That's the shittiest part about all this. Nothing really matters despite who wins.
edit: but if Trump wins I do think it signifies a more accelerated path towars fascism
I'm voting for both Trump and Biden
Locally I've been voting for communists for seven years, no sign of revolution so far
If trumps runs as republican i think he wins for sure, the current palestine crisis have caused a bunch of voter apathy in not just leftist but also muslim voters in important swing states and the only dem strategy to get people to vote is threating that Trump will kill/deport all muslims/lgbt+ people. Which to me is a losing strategy.
Now if republicans dont run trump i honestly dont see them winning any way, all their candidates are just weak.
I think dems have a good chance to win if they stick to the old plan to not run Biden for 2024. How ever i do think its posible for trump to win as an independent if the Republicans dont run him and dems go fir Bidem again.
I think the current Status quo will continue of US states passing increasing fascist policies and the US trying to do all it can to keep their empire together, i dont see Trump or Biden having that radical of a diference maybe Trump will escalate the China cold war and Biden would instead focus on trying to contain Russia, the Middleeast policy will be the same.
all their candidates are just weak.
Haley was polling ahead of biden, for what nothing that's worth.
i'm just going to assume desantis or someone worse will win and send me directly to a death camp based on my internet history, so anything less than that will seem great by comparison
Jokes aside, I do think Biden will win again if things are largely the same as they are now.
If the economy tanks, he'll be in trouble, but outside that I don't see any reason why he wouldn't beat the same opponent again. I just don't think there's enough anger against Biden to turn the tide. Everyone thought the Dems would get crushed in the midterms but actually did great, and inflation was arguably worse then.
There's a pretty significant chance that one or both of Trump and Biden dies before 2024 and that would be the funniest outcome, so here's hoping.
Trump probably wins and everything continues to get worse as America plunges ever closer to its collapse. Alternatively, Biden ekes out a win and everything continues to get worse as America plunges ever closer to its collapse.
Wonder if it's a good idea to get the fuck out of here
Anywhere else in the West is no escape
If I could escape this crumbling machine I would have already
It's our responsibility to stay and fight it if we are able