Longtime GOP Pollster: Trump’s Campaign Is Over After Debate

I don’t know, it’s too soon to call it. We’re not even at the October surprise yet, probably Vance is getting replaced. Harris win depends on voter turnout

Yeah, this type of "reporting" is infuriating to me. Claiming the election is in the bag is just a shitty attempt to depress voter turnout.
I won't trust that Trump has lost this election until Harris is sworn in as POTUS.
- I won't trust it until I read it in his obituary. Until then he's going to be claiming stolen election every single day.
- And you don't even need to win to be president!
  You just need to have it be close enough to have the supreme court call it in your favor, just ask Al Gore about that one.
  (And for anyone confused: the odds that our bought-and-bribed-for supreme court would vote for anyone but Trump are pretty much lol, lmao.)
- Personally I think it’s much more self-serving than that. In case this come true, that pollster wants to make a name for himself by being the first to predict it.
It will be comical if JD gets replaced by brainworm specialist RFKJ
Do you really believe they’d put vance on the couch?
I don't see how Vance getting replaced that late in the game helps Trump.
- It actually plays into the Harris point of Trump churning through staff that he feels like aren't doing enough for him. And I can't imagine he removes JD and then puts him in his cabinet or something, to which I would expect JD to flip back to his pre-VP-audition stance on Trump and spread the word of what is happening "behind the curtain".

The final debate of the 2016 presidential race came as Hillary Clinton threatened to shut the door on Donald Trump and as Donald Trump threatened to unleash a torrent of attacks and accusations about the "rigged" election process.

Debates. Mean. NOTHING.

Clinton beat trump in every debate, it’s all about voter turnout man
- My feeling is that Clinton’s big problem was that she had a low ceiling and low floor because of 20+ years of smears; even though she was definitely qualified, there was just too much generalized negative baggage. I knew many democrats that believed something big would come out because republican muckrakers had spent so many years seeding that field. When Comey decided to break all tradition over nothing it just reinforced that perception.
  Harris doesn’t have that, she has a high ceiling for perception. More people have no idea who she is and the more she can be the one to define herself while Trump looks crazier and crazier the better she’ll do. And the debate feeds that unlike Clinton.
- Actually it's about the demented electoral college, can we string up any of the electors that refuse to vote the will of the people?
- She also beat him in votes, but our country doesn't honor the will of the people.
- Exactly.
- Didn't Hilary win the popular vote?
I would have agreed a few months ago, but tell that to Joe Biden.
- Fair. But tbh I wasn’t paying attention to him until then (except through decisions, which were still better than we had in a long time.) I assumed the MAGA feces-throwing was the usual gaslighting until I saw it.
  Howabout [In a typical two-party presidential debate where the candidates are both under eighty years old] they mean nothing.
  Kerry won all his. Hillary won all hers. The race is unchanged and will boil down to who gets out to vote and how successful republiQan election stealing efforts are.

I wish that was the case, but the orange turd is not easily flushed.

It's like all of his rants about low-flow toilets were accidentally metaphors.

This isn't news. It's a talking head on a TV show.

It’s in the news cycle though 🤷‍♀️
- That's the same thing as "it's in the news cycle" when a fox talking head says anything.
  It's not news.

Let's make sure it is. Vote, get active, get involved

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This is how the snowball started rolling with Biden right after the first debate. I doubt there are enough R's with spines to make it a trend, but here's hoping.

There's a big difference in their performances, though. With Biden it was more a question of "is this guy even going to be alive in January?", vs Trump who's just the same old idiot he has always been, and just finally met his match.
- I don’t think he’ll lose any die-hards, but continuing this could depress turnout. It will affect the margins of “undecideds” though.
There is zero chance that Trump chooses to step aside. Literally zero.
- To some degree that's irrelevant at this point as ballots are printed or at least printing. No matter what it will be Trump/Vance people see in their pamphlets. But the more republicans think he should have dropped, the less motivated they'll be to bother voting.

Yeah, I’ve seen this movie right after “you can grab pussy” locker room talk. Don’t listen to any of this bullshit.

#VOTE

Do not boo. Stay focused. Vote.

This race is exactly tied 50-50

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

You need to do everything you can to help Harris win! Donate and volunteer! Go do a web search how to do it right now! I mean RIGHT now! Go!

Honestly trump dropping out is pretty much the worse thing that can happen to Kamala.

Just like the worst thing that could have happened to trump was Biden dropping out.

The only reason anyone could convince themselves trump or Biden was a good enough candidate, was if the only other option was trump or Biden.

Replacing trump wouldn't just gain more republican votes, it'll cost a lot that are only voting Kamala to stop trump.

trump just won't do it, and no one will force him out

GOP is trump now. If he drops out 60% of the Republican voters would just write in ~~Jesus~~Trump anyway.
- i wonder if voting trump out here would kill trumpism for good or are they too deep in orange shit to quit and will double down
It's too late for Trump to drop out now. Many state filing deadlines have passed, and I recall reading there are some states with extremely early mail-in voting where ballots are already being printed. Trump's only path off the ballot is if God exercises His Ultimate Veto.
- I really don't think so.
  Like. I remember something about how (at least in some states) you're really voting for a party ticket. And then the party that wins gets that many electoral college voters from that party who then vote. And I believe the only requirement is they vote for the party that won the votes to appoint them as electorers, and that's not even a requirement everywhere.
  It was the small piece of truth that led to Trump's false elector plan last election. The only reason it didn't work, was his false electors weren't legitimately appointed.
  So trump could both not be able to remove his name from ballots, but still drop out of the race and no longer be the candidate.
  It's two different things with an incredibly strong correlation, but they don't always have to be the same.
  I didn't bother to dig in and verify that tho, I may be wrong. But I didn't spend the time to do it and went off memory because trump just ain't dropping out no matter what.
Except Trump's famous "They're eating cats and dogs" line came from JD Vance. The craziest part of the debate wasn't even Trump's to fully own. JD Vance quite possibly is worse than Trump in regards to likability.
So if Trump drops out, who the fuck in the Republican field replaces him? Ron Desantis?
We were all saying Biden would never do it.
- Biden was/is beholden to his donors, they threatened to cut him off and he had zero chance without their money, he wasn't a strong enough candidate.
  trump is funded by foreign dictators, billionaires, and domestic idiots.
  They're not cutting off his funding no matter what. So he won't be forced to drop like Biden.
  Plus the only thing keeping trump out of jail is he's a presidential candidate, dudes going to do everything he can to hold onto any scraps of immunity he can get. Biden doesn't have to worry about that

I think nobody can really predict who will win until January. Watching polls may help people feel better but this is much more than national polls

Offtoping here for a little bit, but Kamala's short campaign just 100 days before the elections feels more fitting to the media cycle. In a year almost everything can be forgotten, and when it comes to undecided, the closer your peak performance is to their actual vote means a lot. People get bored being fed the same thing for long, and if the stamina of the campaign is a finite resource, it's better spent after the last corner because you get people still recall what you did at the polling booth.