Donald Trump's chances of winning election slump after RNC speech
Donald Trump's chances of winning election slump after RNC speech
I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative
inb4 BIDEN COPIUM HAHAHA etc and etc
You think everyone is just tired of this shit? Both these dudes are older than my grandfather when he died. I am fucking tired boss. It shouldn't be this crazy just to get sensible candidates who are actual human beings. It really shouldn't.
If only the well wasn’t poisoned with REPLACE BIDEN NOW OR WORLD WILL END ALSO KAMALA SUCKS bullshit, 5-10 times every hour, some of it coming yesterday still with fresh Cyrillic in its video description, we could have an adult conversation about what a good Democratic strategy would be, so that the end of the world doesn’t get elected
God yes I've seen so much of this lately.
Trump wouldn’t be the end of the world. Don’t be so dramatic. He would be the end of The United States, and at most the human race. But there’s basically no chance he could destroy all life on earth.
The well is poisoned due to capitalistic interests even though we all like to think it’s incompetence.
Yeah that's an issue. But it's also actually a fucking thing.
REPLACE BIDEN NOW OR WORLD WILL END
an adult conversation about what a good Democratic strategy would be
I'm not voting for either candidate, I am voting for the people around Biden and against people that support P2025. Pretty simple.
As someone who didn’t think Biden was a good choice in 2020 I fully agree, his administration seems to actually make things better!
Absolutely correct. But even if the choice is a shitty one it's also a very easy one. If you want fascism, vote for Trump. If not, vote for Biden.
Or whoever the Democratic nominee is
There’s a perfectly reasonable conversation to be had about replacing Biden being a better strategy. 10 seconds of thinking will lead one to realize that figuring out the strategy, and then switching to it, is way better than dumping Biden and then figuring out the strategy afterwards. And, it’s notable that all the same outlets who are openly hostile to democracy in the United States were the ones that were pushing so hard on the backwards version of the strategy, until the more gullible parts of the Democratic Party apparatus eventually picked it up and started running with it.
The forward strategy is still fine. The loud preemptive drumbeat of hard criticism of Kamala that is now emerging, though, should hopefully serve as a big loud blaring fucking wake up call to anyone who is sincerely interested in defeating Trump who is still echoing the backwards version.
If a hypothetical person with all your favorite attributes got elected, after 2 years of propaganda you'd be complaining about how awful they are.
Idk the Drop Biden propaganda isn't really landing with me, and I dont do any other media besides Lemmy. Plus, working in construction has me surrounded by Trumpets everywhere and its not convincing me at all. I'm not immune by any means, but I'm not a fair weather fan either.
I can't keep up. Is Trump losing or is Biden losing? It changes every 5 minutes.
America is losing
You got me there.
Biden was and will be another good president. Stop allowing perfection to be the enemy of good.
Honestly id take the Enclave from Fallout at this point. At least then we get eyebots, power armor, and vertibirds. Plus I want to release FEV Curling 13 into the water supply of Utah to see what happens.
Am Canadian. Does that mean we are winning? Cause it seems like we are losing, just more politely.
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Sorry to bring the mode down eh.
The answer is no one knows. If you care, vote and don't be complacent. Even if the news decides they think they know, they still don't know.
This is the answer.
They're competing to be unelectable and both winning.
In a race to the bottom I never bet against trump. Literally if Biden stops talking today I bet he'd have a better chance of winning by the end of it.
The person losing more is the one that most recently opened their mouth and reminded voters who they are.
While it looks like half the country is split between this dipshits, in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.
One of those issues is that both options are fucking awful, so who's "losing" harder is matter of witchcraft at the moment as things violently spiral into the ridiculous
in reality the majority of Americans agree on a shockingly high number of issues.
And it's exactly why I say this every single day in some comment or another: I FUCKING HATE PROPAGANDISTS!!!
What you said is absolutely true and without the likes of Fucker Carlson, Sean Hamface, and Laura Inbread, we'd actually have some fucking semblance of unity and solidarity... But no, we get divide and conquer... Hate hate hate hate. Fox primetime is literally the "two minutes hate" from 1984 with an ever changing Goldstein.
Biden is not really that awful as an option, as far as it goes. If he is in decline, he steps down after the win. It's not like Biden as a choice is comparable to donnie as a choice. They are night and day.
Now, trying to sell Biden as a product to "independents" (aka, the low info) because we sell politicians like the way we sell consumer goods like fizzy sugar water - that's not so great, since the bothsiderists keep acting like they are equally bad options.
Just vote, volunteer to help give rides to people that wouldn't be able to vote without it. If everyone votes, there will be no chance for the racist rapist with 34 felonies that has said on record that he will be a dictator.
Trump is a sore loser. Does that help?
Trump is losing and they want Biden to drop out.
Same, it's like bad actors are muddying the waters on purpose, ignore it all. Vote
Trump is losing.
Losing implies that something happened. Like in a race a contestant is visibly ahead, or in gambling you have more chips than someone else or your money is all gone.
They're lying cause Trumps winning to the point high level democratic members are openly admitting Bidens gonna lose. All this is pitiful window dressing.
Not because he's a fascist child dilldler, because of his last speech.
The people that vote for trump don’t care.
Christ, they wear diapers and put fake ear bandages on. You think they give a damn about what’s actually right?
Trumpism is nothing less than a fascist cult.
Look what was the big things coming out of the RNC.
No one cares except MAGA country. It is boring.
The William Hill odds of a Trump victory in November lengthened from 2/5 (71.4 percent) on Thursday before his convention address to 8/15 (65.2 percent) on Friday.
Trump is still significantly favored.
Paying out higher (better) odds means you think they’re less likely to win
The article says P(Biden wins) < P(Harris wins). It isn't saying anything directly about P(Biden nominated) or P(Biden wins | Biden nominated) but it does imply that P(Biden nominated) is low.
I think the chances of Harris vs Biden winning are incorporated into this percentage. But it doesn’t separate out the factors such as likelihood of being the nominee vs likelihood of winning the GE. So we can’t say anything definitive about that without more information on how it’s being calculated.
Yeah, I messed up the notation in my original post. I have replaced it.
Okay, Democrats, what's the play here then? Better ride this news with some really strong moves to amplify the impact. Don't fuck it up, PLEASE.
Expecting the Dems to do a 180 and actually not fuck up is a bold expectation. JFC we need more agile leadership...
One of my favorite quotes about Democrats (other than that they form circular firing squads) is that "Democrats will never pass up the opportunity to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory."
:(
CNN, NBC, and NPR are working overtime to glorify second coming of Lord Agolf Shitler
Newsweek seems to be the only publication making these claims. We’ve had some 2-3 weeks of Newsweek reportage of the Trump campaign floundering, its wheels falling off, and it circling the drain. Given Newsweek’s right-wing ownership and recently poor reputation for facts, it does feel like an op (perhaps to lull progressive campaigners into a false sense of security?)
That's just headlines too. The actual articles point the other direction.
So I think we are in a post 2016 news cycle so even though an assassination attempt is kind of historic, it’s not that big of a deal in 2024 when I’m sure next week we will get another huge earth shattering news. Maybe this time Putin finally croaks.
I'm an insomniac and the news came through while most of my country would be asleep. There's been news I've woken my sleeping partner up for, because it's been historic or 'in the run '.
Jan 6 was one of those days.
This wasn't. And yeah it had just happened and then the event was over so, nothing really ongoing. But I literally read what I needed to about it and moved on.
On reflection, America has used up all my sense of surprise, and I'm ashamed to say, compassion for them.
I watched Sandy Hook unfold and cried. I remember that day. But the many, many that came after? Just another headline.
I'm not hyper focused on the news; there's plenty going on in my country of interest or more relevance to me.
But I think it's odd that the attempted assassination of an American President in my lifetime... Just isn't surprising or interesting to me. I just have a 'well that tracks for that place' attitude. Putin? Now that would be something.
But I think it's odd that the attempted assassination of an American President in my lifetime... Just isn't surprising or interesting to me.
Not here either.
I have heard one person who wasn’t some friend/family I was specifically talking to about it, even mention it. And she clearly didn’t give a shit. She referenced it for like 5 seconds talking about something else and then never returned to the topic.
It’s fucking wild. I think everyone has just tuned out of the crazy shit politics news machine… which of course brings its own brand of danger. ☹️
Polls mean nothing, vote as if the end of the human race was at hand.
Let's all hope that donnie's chances slump to zero.
So when he droned on about Hannibal lecter, was he trying to talked about Hannibal Barca?
(I don't want to listen to the speech)
No. He literally thought that Hannibal Lecter, the fictional murderer and cannibal from the film "The Silence of the Lambs", was both dead and also a great person. And no, the person who portrayed the character of Hannibal Lecter, Anthony Hopkins, isn't dead either. Also, that was a speech from a few weeks ago I think, and not the RNC speech, which was also unhinged and devolved into a Trump rally attacking Biden and prominent leftists rather than the "call for unity from a changed man" we were promised by bad faith right wing media outlets.
Trump's brain is just as much a pile of mush as Biden's is at this point, but at least I know in the moments of lucidity that Biden has, he's effective at the job and does the right thing. Can't say the same for the 34 time convicted felon running for re-election after he failed to steal the last one.
IMO the senility of either candidate is beside the point because they both have teams that will keep things running when they can't. Hell, those teams keep things running even when the president can because it's not a job one person can do alone.
The difference is Trump's team is openly planning fascism while Biden's team has to at least pretend to be opposed to that or risk more people accepting that neither party wants to oppose the ruler class.
The only time a president being lucid matters is when the president disagrees with their team, that disagreement matters for the people, and the president is on the good side of the disagreement.
And in this case, I can't see any disagreement a lucid Trump has with his team having a good option for the prime or any disagreement a lucid Biden has with his team having a worse outcome than Trump's team gaining power.
The Hannibal Lecter thing was back in May, unless he did it again.
Over the same period, Biden's odds of securing reelection later this year deteriorated substantially to just 12/1 (7.7 percent) as the president faces pressure from within his own party to withdraw from the race.
Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite, but his odds have lengthened a touch – now 8/15 to return to the White House.
Yeah...
what's with the guys wearing cheese hats is that a wisconsin thing?
definitely a wisconsin thing. I had a foam cheesehead when I was a kid.
Their local football team uses it and Wisconsin is known as the cheese state.
As someone mentioned, Wisconsin is known for cheese, lots and lots of dairy farms and whatnot out there.
I actually have a coworker who came from Wisconsin and he will walk around drinking a 1/4 gallon of milk regularly lol
Well that's a click bait title. It's based on betting markets that the head line completely misinterprets. The article itself admits Trump is still the favorite by far.
I’m sure that pleases you to know.
Not really.
Trump’s dopey fascist face kinda looks like the Halloween 4 mask.
C'mon man, that's how he always looks.
The whole thing has a Saul Goodman commercial vibe.
I’ve been tracking the odds on Betfair. They have moved from 1.54 to 1.58 (decimal odds, 1 is dead cert, 2 is 50/50), so very marginally less likely Trump win. ‘Slumped’ they have not.
Harris is at 5.4 and Biden way behind at 15.5.
Can you explain these decimal odds a bit more? I'm confused.
This site has an explanation, examples, and a converter.
Where are you looking and when did it say it was updated?
Here's what I see on Betfair; updated as of July 13th it says:
(Note they sum to more than 100%, because of the "house cut" nonreciprocal nature of the odds)
If there are more recently updated numbers that now say 1.58 decimal, that would mean the odds of Trump winning have dropped from 78% to 63%. I'd say that's a fuckin slump.
(Also note - that doesn't mean they think Biden has a 10% chance of winning if he stays in. It means the chance he will stay on as the nominee times the chance he will win in the election is 10% -- although looking at their odds for who the D nominee will be, it looks like they also think he has a lower chance of winning than Kamala, if he is the nominee.)
Just from my own screenshots yesterday and today. I have a couple of really small bets in play.
The only sad thing is that it seems like they're (still?) only talking about the other side's policy, rather than backing their own policy based on its strength.
Just "I'm not the other side" (but at least with policy rather than personality)
What are they talking about? Polls show Trump ahead.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
That fuckin ear-rectangle 👂
As encouraging as this may sound, it doesn't change anything. VOTE!
If voting were sufficient then we wouldn't be in this mess.
So yes, do vote, but you have to do more than that, too.
If your vote didn't matter, try wouldn't be trying to make it harder (or blocking efforts to make it easier).
VOTE
I've basically given up worrying about federal politics; I STILL VOTE IN FEDERAL ELECTIONS, but it's clear they're too solidly captured by special interests to do much there. I've shifted my focus to local/municipal politics and found a lot more success there.
Yup the idiots will still vote for him no matter what happens. Aliens could pop out of his skull and claim they've been operating him all along to destroy the earth and they'd still vote for him.
He could perform an abortion on live TV and his ratings would skyrocket.