The odds of Trump securing victory over Biden have lengthened from 2/5 on Thursday to 8/15 on Friday, according to William Hill.
I have no idea about William Hill. But the odds they describe sound about right to me, and the Nate Silver thing and the summary of Trump’s speech sound informative
You think everyone is just tired of this shit? Both these dudes are older than my grandfather when he died. I am fucking tired boss. It shouldn't be this crazy just to get sensible candidates who are actual human beings. It really shouldn't.
The William Hill odds of a Trump victory in November lengthened from 2/5 (71.4 percent) on Thursday before his convention address to 8/15 (65.2 percent) on Friday.
Newsweek seems to be the only publication making these claims. We’ve had some 2-3 weeks of Newsweek reportage of the Trump campaign floundering, its wheels falling off, and it circling the drain. Given Newsweek’s right-wing ownership and recently poor reputation for facts, it does feel like an op (perhaps to lull progressive campaigners into a false sense of security?)
So I think we are in a post 2016 news cycle so even though an assassination attempt is kind of historic, it’s not that big of a deal in 2024 when I’m sure next week we will get another huge earth shattering news. Maybe this time Putin finally croaks.
Over the same period, Biden's odds of securing reelection later this year deteriorated substantially to just 12/1 (7.7 percent) as the president faces pressure from within his own party to withdraw from the race.
Donald Trump remains the overwhelming favorite, but his odds have lengthened a touch – now 8/15 to return to the White House.
Well that's a click bait title. It's based on betting markets that the head line completely misinterprets. The article itself admits Trump is still the favorite by far.
I’ve been tracking the odds on Betfair. They have moved from 1.54 to 1.58 (decimal odds, 1 is dead cert, 2 is 50/50), so very marginally less likely Trump win. ‘Slumped’ they have not.
I do think it's funny that Biden's team has figured out that the winningest move is to just talk about Republican policies, 2025, etc. My entire life I've pretty much only wanted to talk policy and rolled my eyes at every single other thing that people said mattered, and it's like I'm finally getting just a little vindication.