Do you think the Russo-Ukrainian war is more likely to end with a trump win in 2024 rather than a Biden win?

Maybe because it would be the second term for Trump, I guess. But I just don't see Trump doing anything except whatever the Pentagon tells him to do. IMO it will be the same as Biden.

First, let me start by saying that, similar to you, I would never vote for Trump, didn't and won't vote for Biden, and am also in a state that always goes one way.

Having said all that, some things about Trump's prior actions and statements make me believe that, if the war hasn't ended by the time of the election, he would be much more likely to end the war much sooner than Biden.

Why do I say this? First, like @HarryLime said, Biden is completely bound to this war, so he's likely to drag it out as long as possible and try to maintain the illusion that Russia is losing. I suppose that there's some chance that he cuts his losses after the election.

Second, I think Trump has demonstrated multiple times that he's not into war. As far as I know, he did not start any new wars or invasions while he was in office, and in fact ended a couple of them. He withdrew from Syria and initiated the process of withdrawing from Afghanistan. On Syria, he said that there was nothing there for the US aside from "sand and death".

On Ukraine, he has specifically stated that he would end the war within 24 hours. Regardless of how ridiculous that sounds, he elaborated on what he would say to both Zelensky and Putin, and you can just tell that he doesn't like this war either.

Most of his statements about most wars that we've been involved in seem to indicate that he instinctively dislikes war and all its negative impacts. Whether he would actually be able to end it or not is another question, considering what @footfaults mentioned about the generals sabotaging his efforts to leave Afghanistan.

Finally, here's an analysis from the BBC on how a Trump presidency might change the Ukraine war.

Edit: another factor is that remember that Biden pretty much loaded his entire national security and foreign policy apparatus with neocons. In contrast, Trump had maybe a couple, with a prominent example being John Bolton, who was like a cartoon neocon. He seemed to be used more for barking than for biting. Here's what seems like a good article about this. I only skimmed it, but this caught my eye:

Far from the textbook ideal of National Security Advisor as an honest broker, Bolton acted as a policy advocate. His strong convictions and history as an arch-neoconservative who believes in America’s role to police the world and engage in military action to effect regime change in states perceived as a threat has been well-documented. A proponent of the “axis of evil” view of the world, he advocated for the invasion of Iraq in 2003, as well forceful regime change in Iran and North Korea.

However, such war-happiness has run antithetical to Trump’s apparent view of the scope and purpose of US foreign policy. Trump’s proclivity to transactionalism and dismissal of the notion that the US is a force for good involved in a Manichean struggle against evil. Trump has been unequivocal in the view that acting as a global policeman has been detrimental for the state coffers and has given allies and partners a free ride. While Trump has done nothing to reduce US military spending – he has actually increased it – his threshold for the use of force has been much higher than Bolton’s (albeit less consistent, as seen in the case of Syria in 2017 and 2018, in response to Bashar al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons against civilians). It should be little wonder, then, that Trump remained resistant to Bolton’s sabre-rattling.

Permanently Deleted

Aside from the part where he said he’d end it and that he doesn’t really like NATO, there’s another big reason I think Trump will end the war: Zelenskyy didn’t give him the dirt on Biden he asked for, and it got him impeached.

Plus of course this is Biden’s war. He started it in 2014 as VP and it’s no coincidence that it blew back up after he became president.

i.e. aside from the politics of it, ending the war would also just be petty revenge for Trump.

Maybe that’s hopium (for the war to end) on my part, but I do think it tracks with Trump’s personality.

Rooting for Trump 2024 just because I want to hear what nickname he'll come up with for Zelensky

i could see him pushing for a peace deal because it would make him look good, and it would end "Bidens war." The GOP does seem kinda split on the war though thats a wild card.

No. Any cuts will seem weak, but they'll do more focus on making Taiwan the next multi decade burn pit. I think we will see a "stalemate" West / East Ukraine and Europe follows the USA in becoming a perma war / austerity state once they deplete ye olde cold war stuff. A 20 year slow burn like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and wherever the fuck we are that isn't more publicized.

They will then build up with modern weapons and do WW3 frfr around 2040 when will the boomers die off to prevent any speak of a peace dividend.

Yes, if the war is still going on. There’s only one way this war will end and that’s negotiation. The Biden administration understands that, they already feel stupid for not listening to Mark Milley about ending the war in late 2022 (that was who it was right? It’s like 3am I can’t remember) so even Biden is ready to come to the negotiating table, he’s just in a pickle because he’s whipped his base into a frenzy and now he needs to back down a bit without looking weak. Trump doesn’t have the same concerns and in fact his base wants him to negotiate an end to the war.

In the past the pentagon has been able to convince trump to go along with their aims, but in this case most in the military are ready to end the war so trump wouldn’t even really be opposing the “deep state.” They’re just trying to figure out how to end it without it being considered a loss. I read one commentator who said the summer Counter-offensive was mostly just an attempt to regain as much territory as possible before pushing for negotiation in winter (when fighting would be more difficult). We’ll see if that plays out and negotiations do in fact begin this winter.

This whole thing actually reminds me of listening to another commentator in 2016, right after trump won, who said well really the one positive is we won’t go to war with Russia, and he made the case that if Hillary had won we’d no doubt be ratcheting up tensions with Russia. Looks like whoever that was was right, since as soon as we get Biden we get pulled into what is pretty much a proxy war with Russia.

Biden has basically staked his administration on this war. Even if he gets reelected, I don't see how he can be viewed as a credible leader internationally.

I'm going to go against everyone else and say that neither Biden nor Trump can end the war. Trump can cut the US support, but that's all he can do, and even if that led to Russia regaining the momentum, it won't win, in the same way that Bush's MISSION ACCOMPLISHED banner wasn't the end of the War in Iraq.

At most, what can happen is that the Ukranian side of the war turns into an insurgency, and we love saving lives through counterinsurgency don't we folks?

I thought Russia was doing well. Is it suffering setbacks again?

I think it's too optimistic. If Trump was able to stop the war (for whatever dumb reason he might want to), he'd have ended the war in Afghanistan during his original term. Turns out the MIC has an unusual level of protection in its pet projects compared to other endeavors, and Trump does not have the will to fight that.

I think if trump wins he is gonna pull the support, which leads to ukraine losing the war

That would be terrible for ukraine and europe, which in turn would be terrible for US in the long term.