republicans likely to sweep
republicans likely to sweep
50 comments
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"likely" is doing a lot of work for a 24.7% chance outcome based on these numbers. Senate is donezo for the dems but the other two are coin flips according to pretty much all polling. Sure you can argue all the polls are wrong but then these simulations here would also be wrong given how much they rely on polling
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Wasn't there some research about Trump doing better than polls say because people don't want to admit they vote for him?
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Any model worth any shit at all would already try to calculate that in by comparing previous poll numbers with previous election results
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Embarrassed Trump voter is a common theory, but we'll only know when everything's said and done.
Pollsters may also be skewing things in Dem favor because of their performance in the 2022 midterms, when there's an argument to be made that was only the case because Donnie wasn't on ballot and he tends to overperform his polling
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You almost have to wonder about the longer term here. In some ways Repubs would probably be satisfied with a stalemate situation where Harris wins but they control the Senate and/or House. She will be a garbage President who produces 4 years of gaffes while they stymie her agenda in Congress. Then she is very beatable after the first term and they can run somebody else who has a shot of setting up an 8 year presidency instead of the max of 4 that Trump can get.
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Kamala wins. Dems take control of the house by overwhelming numbers. Republicans have 51 senators. Nothing gets done, hundreds of federal judge positions are left vacant, no policy is passed except for the "gun down the migrants" bill and "let israel use its nuke on iran" bill.
Charlie Kirk wins the 2028 election in a landslide.
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President Kirk would be funny. I can already CNN shrinking his face, being 20 years late as always.
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For anyone reading this thread in the future when all these things become true, CNN used to be a liberal leaning network. In 2026 they started to do the immigrant execution broadcasts at the fascist junta's requests, but it played really well with their aging audience so that's when they committed to being another fascist network. Hope this helps
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please mister president trump please give us at least one democrat show trial
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posthumously exhuming FDR and bringing him in front of The House Un-American Activities Committee
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Or Mitt Romney
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Insane that the Republicans stand any chance to win the House. How many of their projected new seats come from beating AIPAC dems?
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This is why I don’t buy the “Republicans will be gone within a decade” narrative. They still could very well have the senate and possibly the house even if they lose the presidential election. Worst-case scenario for them is having only the senate.
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Oh they will be gone
Because the democrats will have become them,thus rendering them obsolete
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People have been confidently predicting the Republicans downfall since its creation with the amount of factionalism and periods of struggle they’ve gone through.
The parties are always chasing to become each other. Democrats were for unregulated capitalism and against American interventionism with the Bourbon Democrats, then Republicans took those same positions with Calvin Coolidge. Democrats were the founders of modern US imperialism with Wilson and then Republicans became associated with it. It seems this is one of the only times Democrats have tried to emulate the Republicans and they’ve been doing that since the Nixon/Reagan era.
What it could lead to is a period where Republicans struggle in every election for some time as they try to find the next thing to pivot to. At the moment they’re currently doing better in the house and senate than they were during the Great Depression, Great society, and George HW presidency. Two of these periods had several commentators predicting their death, especially during the Great Depression. I have a feeling that the end of Trumpism will probably lead to another shot in the arm as many who are currently sworn off the party will come back once he’s gone and a return to “normalcy” occurs.
Expect more Nikki Hayley types in the future unless another charismatic figure appears to start yet another faction within the party. The republicans have a knack for having that happen.
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The prerequisite for US political theatre is there has to be two parties. This is why speculating about one party no longer existing is always dumb. There will always be political realignment. I think people are confusing political realignment, which is probably happening now, with a party being doomed somehow. I could see the end result of this political realignment being the Democrats as neocons with rainbow characteristics and the Republicans as MAGA social democracy.
It might seem silly now, but I could see this happening by the mid 2030s. Mainstream LGBT is already thoroughly captured by the Democrats and willing accomplices of pinkwashing. And as for the Republicans, I've noticed how what's left of organized labor is shifting towards the Republicans, which would have been unthinkable even 15 years ago. The Democrats are losing organized labor and that Teamster poll showing them favoring Trump is only the beginning. At this point, all it takes is for a Democrat president to put down a traffic controller strike for organized labor to be a solid Republican voter bloc. The MAGA communist patsocs are clowns who no one takes seriously, but I do think a slight rebranding where the Soviet and communist iconography is replaced with more social democratic and USian iconography would sell pretty well among Republicans.
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I'm getting really cursed "when MAGAsocialism comes to America it'll be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross" vibes
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i mean people were legitimately better off under trump. the stimulus checks were the basically only time in my life (in my 30's) that anything from a president had an actual effect on me in a positive way. obamacare is shit as a worker, it's effectively a 200 dollar a month tax on my paycheck that covers nothing
obviously he won't do that again or whatever, but like it makes sense from a certain perspective to want him back instead of the absolute disdain the dems give workers lol
dems had the opportunity to up this with loan forgiveness, but here we are
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This is probably very likely. Do we think Liz Cheney is going to vote straight Democrat down the ballot? All this shifting to right wing points to get Republican votes could mean Harris wins the Presidency, and then the Rep voters switch back for every other race..
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I don't even think Liz Cheney will vote for Harris in the first place.
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Is 538 good again?
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538 isn't anything special, its only major claim to fame was being less wrong in 2016 but since Nate Silver left and took his model with him that's not a factor anymore. But for what it's worth, pretty much all models are showing similar predictions, including Silver's.
Personally I place a good amount of stock in the Economist prediction model on the logic that it's a magazine for rich people whose money may be affected by the election so they have incentive to be accurate
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Two 53% chances that are probably very correlated is probably a bit lower odds than a coin flip, so it's more like "republicans could sweep". Still, Hillary had much better chances on all the models the night before the election in 2016, and well, I hate to tell you she lost.
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I can't believe the left did this to our democracy
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As the saying goes Democrats are gonna take this opportunity to really look inwards and decide they simply gotta get more genocidal.
We're gonna get blamed so hard. I love it.
Going from candidate 98% Hitler this year to candidate 101% Hitler in 2028
2028 the dems support a bipartisan border bill with auto turrets on the wall
No more kids in cages! Coffins are the style now 💅