China puts the first human being on Mars, who declares the dawn of the Red Century. Everyone claps and abandons capitalism.
The red planet.
China defeating america on the global economic stage allowing the countries of the global south to develop independently, inevitably leading to communism
global south appropriating more surplus value in any way (either via sovereign porkies/socialism/core buying stuff without financing core bourgeois), causing crisis of profitability in the core
Overprivatization throughout the west eventually leading to western governments becoming insignificant. Ancap corporate feudalism ensues, fails horribly, China and other socialist countries far outstrip those countries, and then enough people along the way think "huh maybe we should do something a bit more like that".
I think that's the most likely hope for a communist future. The ideal way would obviously be mass organisation and consciousness to the point where you could just elect a socialist third party and have the organised masses to ensure that changeover actually happens.
Real question is if any of that happens quickly enough before climate change causes too much devastation.
Real question is if any of that happens quickly enough before climate change causes too much devastation.
It's a dark possible outcome: Capitalism becoming literally unstoppable in the lead up to total environmental collapse precisely because it expends no effort on trying to preserve a future, and so can materially out-compete other systems that are trying to save that future. That's the folly of liberal efforts to create "market based solutions" to environmental problems, and is why western liberalism is definitely not going to have a future.
It's a scarily plausible outcome, and reinforces how changing behaviour in western countries is the only hope - Even if China went carbon negative tomorrow, it still can't outweigh the rest of the world's spewy businesses who would just see it as a carte blanche to make more money.
Real question is if any of that happens quickly enough before climate change causes too much devastation.
Lol, lmao even, we're way past late for that unless major change happens almost literally overnight.
I think your take is spot on except there's probably going to be another fascism phase that's going to hit some/most/all of Euro states.
U.S. balkanization.
Market socialism.
Building of worker-led organizations/structures that can take the place of capitalist institutions when they collapse.
This is a bit of an odd one, but I think a sort of spat between the PMC and the bourgeoisie is going to be a precursor of sorts to socialist economies. Not a full blown class war like it was between the bourgeoisie and the aristocracy, but enough of a disruption with the PMC wanting to be more than just fig leaf for capital that it will create the opportunity for the working class to seize control. Could even sway some of the PMC with “well you can still be elected worksite organizer in the new economy.”
A politically educated global working class.
Building genuine community based in mutual aid. Honestly I think that when people feel connected to each other the radicalization steps are much easier
My likely idealist notions
Like second thought said in a recent video, the conditions that allow fascism to take hold are the same conditions that allow communism to gain popularity and power. Communist thinking and action of actively suppressed, while fascist dogs are given leash to do pretty heinous things in the name of "free speech". When you look at these organizations however, that commit a solid percent of hate crimes across the country, they're made up of like 2-300 people. So fascism is boosted while communism is repressed, what does this say about our current conditions? It means there are probably more comrades, proto-comrades, and potential comrades than there would appear to be at first glance!
The other thing that makes me hopeful, and not to sound overly US centric, but global capital has a lot of it's eggs in the USA basket, but the USA I believe is not as prepared as it thinks it is against internal action. The US being weakened by this would take the boot off literally billions of necks around the world and, hopefully, inspire a few new countries to take revolutionary action while the main military force of capitalism is distracted.
I'm not sure, because there's many layers to this onion I'm still learning about, but I have a hunch that imperialism has to be "peeled back" first. So first step is empire has to fall.
Hey, worst case scenario we don't get gay space communism... but at least the US empire is gone. Net positive for everyone except the absolute biggest pieces of shit
The very first important step would be to comprehensively destroy NATO
worldwide and in the US 
The hundred thousand survivors of nuclear holocaust deciding to work together.
a mix of climate change, global war and economic downturn
An alliance in which Russia unites with China, Central Asian countries, Iran and Syria. This alliance could be also very attractive for Africa and good parts of Latin America. BRICS+ is trying to do this, but the failure of BRICS+ to advance de-dollarisation, and the inclusion of countries such as the UAE as a member state, is disappointing. However such an alliance, in the form of BRICS+ or something else, remains the best current hope to isolate the collective capitalist imperialism of the traid of the United States, Western Europe and Japan. Without defeating this collective imperialism, there is no viable road to a communist future. The Chinese model remains the best model that we have today to respond to the challenge of globalist imperialism. So China will have to play a very important role in any communist future.
Empire falling and the global south resisting. This continuous degradation of living standards in the global south will lead to pushback against the Empire, and this in turn will lead to crumbling living standards in the Imperial Core.
What remains for workers in the Imperial Core is organizing and preparing for any such internal movements so as to support the international movement against empire and towards Socialism and eventually Communism.
I am here for the hope. More hope plz
China.
israel
Probably something along the lines of the next depression (they'll call it a recession in the news but it will be a depression) completely collapsing the speculative finance and tech sectors. Without these last 2 rotten legs to stand on the US production crisis will be magnified to extremes.
Neoliberalism is wholly incapable of solving this kind of crisis. The shockwaves from this implosion will radiate outward causing the most peripheral elements of hegemonic control to start to unravel. This will feed back into the system further destabilizing the core and more core-adjacent countries and markets. Once the US empire is weakened alternative economies will be attempted and their success or failure will no longer depend on how much of Uncle Sam's boot is on their necks. There will be a lot of failures. But there will be more "freedom of movement" so to speak. Successful alternatives will inspire others to follow their example but tailored to their unique circumstances.
Essentially an end to capitalist realism will allow people to try new things and socialism will emerge as the most powerful alternative to capitalism.
shooting a buncha ground-up chalk into the atmosphere at the precise moment the gulf stream collapses, committing both mayocide and reversing global warming with one stone, and allowing the collectivist peoples of the rest of the world to build a fair global communism in peace
A nuke in every African, Indian, and South American country's hand
