Moody's downgraded the United Sates' credit rating for the first time in history citing unsustainable path for US federal debt and its resulting interest burden.
reuters.com
The US government’s willingness to run huge deficits (which increases the national debt) is what makes it so powerful and holds so much sway over the developing world in the first place.
Remember, that you cannot run large budget deficits is a neoclassical myth designed to keep the rest of the world from investing in self-sufficiency, and must therefore earn export revenues (by using their labor and resources to sell cheap goods and services to the wealthy countries) first before they can invest in their own country in order to “keep their deficits down”.
US federal debt = dollars spent by the US government that haven’t been taxed back yet. It literally is just an accounting tool to drain the extra reserves creating in the financial system every time the government spends money.
This MMT meme should clarify everything:
Leftists really need to understand that they should attack the federal government for prioritizing its spending on rich people, and not enough on the average working people, instead of regurgitating neoliberal myths that perpetuate the US hegemony.
Most comprehensible leftist meme
Leftists really need to understand that they should attack the federal government for prioritizing its spending on rich people, and not enough on the average working people, instead of regurgitating neoliberal myths that perpetuate the US hegemony.
I agree 100% but whenever I suggest that leftists should bother to learn a bit about MMT I get told that it’s all irrelevant because it doesn’t align perfectly with their own interpretation of something Marx said about money or value, or only applies to when you’re very late stages of socialism.
Funny considering that perhaps the greatest economic development that has occurred in the history of humanity, happened in the USSR under Stalin’s Five-Year Plans (1929-1955) that ran very much on the MMT principles (not exactly, but conceptually similar enough). No other socialist/Marxist economies, including China which is far more neoliberal post-reform and relied on foreign capital and cheap labor, ever comes close to achieving this.
There's a Proles Pod episode on MMT just came out that seems to do a good job. I still can't 100% wrap my head around it but I'm getting there
Not understanding how to run a country at a deficit is why I'm no good at Victoria 3.
It depends… during the gold standard era (fixed exchange rate) you cannot run a large deficit without screwing up your own exchange rate.
I will continue my BDS America campaign and discourage purchasing of US toxic debt and weapons.
The debt are bought by banks because every time the government spends (creates new money), it also creates reserves in the banking system. The banks then use the new reserves to buy treasuries, which act to drain excess reserves in the system (because of interest rate targeting, otherwise you can just let the reserves build up in the system without doing anything, and not issuing new treasury bonds at all. It is a policy choice.).
The rest of it is bought by citizens and non-citizens alike who have accumulated dollars but don’t know where else to spend them (e.g. foreign central banks). Therefore the treasury bonds also act to drain the excess dollars the US has spent overseas (dollar recycling).
The only real way for the US to lose its financial hegemony is if there is another country (you know who) willing to step up and become the net deficit spending country to absorb all the surplus export capacities in the world.
Otherwise exporting economies will always have surplus goods to sell and the trade flow will inevitably lead the goods to be sold to the country willing to run a deficit. If not, workers will lose their jobs and hurt the local economy of the exporting country.
instead of regurgitating neoliberal myths that perpetuate the US hegemony.
One way to do this is to point out what would happen if someone "called our debts." Let's say the US actually owes this money to various investors. Americans are going to have much worse problems before this happens, if it were to happen. Nobody cashes out unless they think the country is collapsing. And not in the "Oh no a recession that makes 2008 look like the 1950s!" but in the "People are being disappear'd and there's gunfights between militia groups over water," type of collapse.
At which point, whatever the debt is doesn't matter because it would be the end of the US federal government. People would only call those debts because they know they aren't going to get a return on their investment. USD will be worth fuck-all.
Regardless, it's mostly money the US government owes itself. And decision makers are aware the debt doesn't actually need to be paid back. The whole thing is a sham made up to justify austerity and imperialism.
The real problem is that the government directing spending goes directly against neoliberal orthodoxy
Remember when the credit agencies were giving high ratings to all the over leveraged banks in the lead up to the Great Recession? Good times, good times.
Now it's over leveraged private equity funds. Lookup blackstone
🤣
These systems always make me laugh.
China gets an A1 which is lower than Hong Kong and Taiwan which both get an Aa3, the implication being that these places are better equipped to pay their debts than the mainland? Fuck off are they lol.
i mean giving china a lower credit rating makes sense though since they can and will just tell foreign investors to get fucked (as they should, lol) if necessary (this is a good thing tho)
Watch the market still go up
I literally keep thinking itd be stupid not to buy United healthcare stock just because like, every other fucking time something like this has happened it just keeps increasing in value anyway, the only people who lose are the people who hear the bad news and go SHIT I GOTTA SELL
We're gonna be winning so much you'll beg me to make it stop!
"Hell yeah, brother!"makes the winning stop
I look forward to the NYSE hitting record highs on Monday on news of the US economy shitting the bed.
Quick permanently another 500 billon to the defense budget!
If anyone else is confused it was Standard & Poor's that downgraded their rating during Obummer, not Moody's
Poor Mood
Things happening? Maybe 🤔
This doesn't really mean anything does it
In practical terms it means that higher percentage of the budget will be allocated to paying interest leaving a smaller operational budget for productive uses.
Oh okay
If the debt's too high, that means rich people will have to pay more taxes because they're the ones with money right?
Did they also move the doomsday clock hand another second closer?
Boring!
The debt is sustainable, no sovereign currency debt is unsustainable, the U.S. Government can at any time can buy back all the debt from willing sellers and give them U.S. Dollars, this merely replaces U.S. Treasuries with U.S. Dollars (in form of bank reserves), both liabilities of the U.S. Government.
Moodys could downgrade because there have been whispers of U.S. Govt changing duration and interest on existing debt (very stupid) owned by foreigners, which is a form of voluntary debt. Sovereign debt does have voluntary default risk, but no involuntary default risk. But they aren't saying that, they are saying the debt itself is 'unsustainable' which isn't true.
They could argue they are downgrading because of risk of inflation being above interest rate or exchange rate depreciation. But that is not the same as credit risk, they are saying 'credit risk' not 'exchange rate risk'.
Dollar’s global reserve status and monetary sovereignty grant unique advantages, dismissing debt sustainability concerns oversimplifies the risks. Yes, the US can theoretically print dollars to service debt, but this ignores practical constraints. While the US won’t run out of money, unchecked debt could trigger stagflation, a dollar crisis, or a loss of geopolitical leverage. These outcomes are far messier than a technical default.
Unlimited QE or devaluation erodes the dollar’s purchasing power and credibility. Investors may tolerate deficits until they don’t as was seen with the 1970s stagflation spiral, when the dollar’s dominance didn’t prevent a crisis of confidence. If markets anticipate perpetual devaluation, demand for treasuries could collapse, forcing interest rates up and destabilizing the economy.
While Moody’s critique conflates the exchange rate and credit risk, they’re still connected. A weakening dollar makes dollar-denominated debt cheaper for the US to service, but foreign holders like Japan face losses. If they dump Treasuries to cut losses, the fed would have to monetize debt at scale, risking hyperinflation. This would be a de facto default for foreign investors. If the US unilaterally alters debt terms extending maturities or capping rates, that also signals unreliability. Foreign creditors, who hold 30% of US debt, could exit, triggering a liquidity crisis.
Unlimited QE or devaluation erodes the dollar’s purchasing power and credibility.
This isn't necessarily true. As I said, bond purchases isn't money printing but rather an asset swap, swapping one asset, treasuries, with reserves, it doesn't create net financial assets. That's what fiscal policy does.
While the US won’t run out of money, unchecked debt could trigger stagflation, a dollar crisis, or a loss of geopolitical leverage.
No it won't. Private debt isn't same as public debt, what I said applies to all countries with sovereign currencies, look at Japan's public debt to GDP ratio. The 1970s stagflation was in large part due to oil price shock and capitalists/workers fighting over real output.
Credit ratings agencies have downgraded JGBs many times in the past yet yields remained low and demand for these assets high. 1 2 3 4
Another good example was Italy, before they joined EMU Euro. Credit ratings agencies downgraded Italian Lira debt because ' fiscal trajectory', 'Unsustainable path' yet they never defaulted on Lira debt. This was despite low growth, and high(er) inflation. There was no risk of default in the first place.
While Moody’s critique conflates the exchange rate and credit risk, they’re still connected. A weakening dollar makes dollar-denominated debt cheaper for the US to service, but foreign holders like Japan face losses.
U.S. sovereign debt can always be serviced, as I said, it's not really debt. It is debt in the same way cash in your wallet is debt, except that there is interest, which is a basic income to bondholders.
If markets anticipate perpetual devaluation, demand for treasuries could collapse, forcing interest rates up and destabilizing the economy.
It won't, short term rates are set by the Fed, and if the interest rate goes beyond its tolerance it has to soak up excess debt to maintain its target rate. Demand for treasuries will always be there because even if foreigners don't want it, Americans do as it is a risk-free asset.
If they dump Treasuries to cut losses, the fed would have to monetize debt at scale, risking hyperinflation.
No, if they dump Treasuries, they lose their foreign exchange reserves and as the exchange rate depreciates, they'll get less and less of whatever other currency they are trying to buy. The reason why Chinese and Japanese central banks have reserves in the first place is because they buy up excess Dollars in the forex market so as to maintain trade competitiveness (real effective exchange rate).
If the US unilaterally alters debt terms extending maturities or capping rates, that also signals unreliability.
That is an actual voluntary default. Not the same as exchange rate risks.
Foreign creditors, who hold 30% of US debt, could exit, triggering a liquidity crisis.
There won't be a liquidity crisis, U.S. Govt is always there to supply liquidity if needed.
So.. what happens when the credit market tightens? Extremely leveraged companies go bankrupt and can't pay lenders. But now it's not banks that are lending, it's Private Equity. Blackstone. They get pensions to invest, then do leveraged buyouts using a shit ton of leverage. Meaning they don't even possess the money they are using to buy out companies, they just say they will have the money eventually.
Remember Enron? Ask chatgpt or copilot to compare and contrast Enron with Blackstone and you will see some very concerning similarities. They keep liabilities off the books so they don't show how exposed they are. But tarrifs and this Moody's downgrade are going to trigger another collapse like 2008 only this time it's not the banks that taxpayers will bail out it's PE and the pensions that invested in them
Ask chatgpt
The machine sycophant can't answer any question honestly
better cut everything but the military that will do uhhhh nothing
SNAP $200
PBS/NPR $150
Border Patrol $800
Military $3,600,000,000,000
Medicare $150
someone who is good at the economy please help me budget this. my credit rating is dying
just use your military to shoot the credit raters, why didn't anyone else think of this??
Spend less on military
you gotta run the govt budget like a household. no wait, not like that!