Image is of Stepanakert, essentially the capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. It is now a ghost city, and Azerbaijan has recently torn down the parliament building and various other important places. Sourced from this article.

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Despite the predictions and assertions of various NATO-aligned commentators that Russia's influence is waning, the opposite generally appears to be occurring. ASEAN has become more strongly aligned with Russia despite claims to the contrary. In Central Asia, there has been a propaganda push to declare that countries there are "emerging from Russia's shadow", while in reality, as Bhadrakumar analyzes, Russia's significant economic growth and ongoing march towards victory in Ukraine is creating opportunities for further integration, not separation, and there are no major political shifts there in terms of Russian ties. And in Niger, Russian soldiers have now entered an airbase which once hosted American soldiers, now kicked out, and generally Russia's diplomacy and economic deals (nuclear power plant construction, military equipment, grain shipments, etc) have accelerated in Africa.

Where Russia's influence has actually seemed to decrease (outside of the West, of course) is in Armenia. Nagorno-Karabakh's remarkably rapid collapse in late 2023 demonstrated that Russia was not willing to escalate things in defense of Armenia to fend off Azerbaijan. One hundred thousand Armenians - most but not all of them in the region - fled in advance to avoid mass persecution, which received remarkably little attention by a West which calls itself overwhelmingly concerned with borders changing due to military action as in Ukraine. Since then, Armenia seems to be on some kind of self-annihilating bender, allured by the potential of Western military and economic deals. Armenia froze its membership in the CSTO due to its failure to protect them, and the head of NATO, Stoltenberg, visited the region in March. The West has offered up hundreds of millions of dollars in assistance to Armenia and is helping them "modernize their military"; given the poor track record of Western military equipment in Ukraine, one wonders why they're even bothering. RAND has advocated for a balancing act; America should, in their eyes, realize that they can't entirely remove Russia's influence but nonetheless should make inroads to protect Armenia from Azerbaijan (which is an interesting position given that Israel provided arms to Azerbaijan to help them take Nagorno-Karabakh).

A quick look at Armenia's geographical position reveals the folly of trying to create some kind of Western outpost. With a hostile Azerbaijan to their east, a very unfriendly (albeit NATO member) Turkiye to their west, an ascendant Iran to their south, and Russia not far from the action, there is little hope of doing much more than causing a little chaos in the hopes it'll momentarily distract Russia while it makes inroads most everywhere else on the planet. The political situation appears miserable for Pashinyan, but there isn't really a popular alternative to take the reins. A truly cursed situation.

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The COTW (Country of the Week) label is designed to spur discussion and debate about a specific country every week in order to help the community gain greater understanding of the domestic situation of often-understudied nations. If you've wanted to talk about the country or share your experiences, but have never found a relevant place to do so, now is your chance! However, don't worry - this is still a general news megathread where you can post about ongoing events from any country.

The Country of the Week is Armenia! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

Please check out the HexAtlas!

The bulletins site is here! The RSS feed is here. Last week's thread is here.

Image is of Yemen seizing the first ship in its blockade of Israel (the Galaxy Leader) with a helicopter raid.

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Alternate title: What If It Was The Bab El-Womandeb And It Was Just For The Ladies?

Ansarallah is a key component of the broader Resistance movement, backed by Iran, and has been a stalwart member in engineering the ongoing collapse of Zionism. It has steadily escalated both its rhetoric and, rarely nowadays, its actions, proving that the mythical "red line" might actually exist in the world after all, after going MIA in both Russia and China. It has been striking first Israel-owned ships heading through the Bab el-Mandeb - the strait that leads into the Red Sea and then to the Suez Canal - and, recently, has demonstrated its promise that any ships that intend to dock in Israel will be attacked. While this is really only half a blockade, the cost of going around Africa is significant, and Western insurance companies really don't like it when their ships get blasted by missiles and drones. Several shipping companies have already stated their intention to alter/stop shipping routes through the Red Sea, trying to prompt the West to find a "solution".

Despite US naval presence in the area, Yemen possesses the ability to strike the oil refining facilities of the Gulf monarchies, leaving the US in a very difficult position. If they attack Yemen, then not only do Western ships risk being attacked directly, but those oil refineries may go up in smoke depending on if they help the West - and global oil prices will skyrocket, in an already declining world economy - and it might cost several Western leaders their leadership positions, including Biden himself. A regional war could ultimately tumble into worldwide chaos.

Equally, however, the US cannot afford to lose Israel. It is the single most important American imperial outpost, perhaps alongside Taiwan. If Zionism is destroyed as a local destabilizing influence, then the Russia-China-Iran axis will find itself in a leadership position over the region. Israeli military losses in Gaza increase every single day as they advance further into the labyrinth death trap under the obligation to show some kind of military victory, with Hamas' strategy of attrition taking its toll. And Hezbollah sits there, having destroyed most of the border infrastructure, silently threatening the obliteration of Israel's infrastructure under the rain of a hundred thousand missiles.

As world attention gradually shifts away from the Gaza genocide, we continue to approach the brink.

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The weekly update is here on the website. Your Tuesday Briefing is here in the comments and here on the website.

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The Country of the Week is Yemen! Feel free to chime in with books, essays, longform articles, even stories and anecdotes or rants. More detail here.

The bulletins site is here! The RSS feed is here. Last week's thread is here.

>“Something interesting that comes from Israel, 40 percent” of the drones “knocked out” by the Israeli army are shot down in cases of “friendly fire,” Marine Lt Col Michael Pruden told The War Zone and other attendees of the yearly Modern Day Marine exposition in Washington DC.

Not just metaphorically !brainworms

cross-posted from: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/4479372

> Richard Dawkins accused student protesters of antisemitism at his panel event - then runs away from questions about it

His Majesty’s Treasury Head of Cyber Security salary: £57500

!

cross-posted from: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/4492852

> Israel Intensifies Strikes on Rafah

https://amimagazine.org/2021/08/18/reuven-kahane/ archive

!hamas-base

> my plan had always been to make aliyah and go into business and politics in Israel. ..

> I knew from my years of learning in Israel (and from my summer interning in the Knesset for Likud)...

> . I realized that I needed to find the food that does not exist in Israel but that everyone in Israel wants. After thinking about hot dogs, burritos and doughnuts, I made my choice and Bonkers Bagels was born.....somehow, we were able to convince the landlord to give the lease to a couple of immigrants ....

> We were the only American bagel shop in the Middle East.

>“The business was wildly successful the first four years. At its peak, it had a revenue of around six million dollars. But we grew too quickly. The factory cost millions to build and you need a lot more than your own stores to support a factory.

> The Intifada and other factors affected the business, too. Eventually, like so many other retail chains, !hamas-red-triangle Bonkers Bagels closed. “The business closing coincided with my father passing away, !hamas-red-triangle !wholesome

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jewish_Defense_League

> Jewish Defense League (JDL) is a far-right religious and political organization in the United States and Canada. Its stated goal is to "protect Jews from antisemitism by whatever means necessary"; it has been classified as "right-wing terrorist group" by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) since 2001, and is also designated as hate group by the Southern Poverty Law Center. According to the FBI, the JDL has been involved in plotting and executing acts of terrorism within the United States.

https://jalopnik.com/real-estate-developer-allegedly-drives-car-into-crowd-o-1851462303

> Once Columbia University’s administrators called the cops in on students protesting Israel’s genocide in Gaza, and the Fox News crowd started foaming at the mouth for teens to be beaten or killed, you knew it was only a matter of time before someone ended up in the hospital. Sadly, it appears that is now the case, as someone reportedly drove their car into a crowd of protesters. The person the driver hit later went to the hospital in an ambulance.

> Per reports from Talia Jane, who is Jewish, during a protest outside the house of a Columbia trustee, Reuven Kahane, a local real estate developer, initially drove up to a group of protesters and asked for a flyer. When someone offered one to him, he instead grabbed their arm and drove off. Next Kahane drove his Volvo around the block, sometimes swerving toward the sidewalk, and then directed his car at the protesters themselves.

> A de-escalator at the back of the march attempted to get Kahane to wait, but he hit her with his car anyway. A second de-escalator then sat in front of his car to prevent him from driving into the crowd, but was later arrested. The first de-escalator called an ambulance for an injury to her leg. Kahane was also arrested, and the injured de-escalator was detained at the hospital.

> Independent journalist Marisa Kabas has since confirmed that Reuven Kahane was arrested by the NYPD. He is currently charged with second-degree assault, a felony. Kabas also confirmed the de-escalator he hit was a 55-year-old woman who is currently charged with criminal mischief and unlawful assembly, while the de-escalator who sat in front of Kahane’s car has been charged with criminal mischief. The safety/de-escalation team was reportedly made up entirely of non-student volunteers.

> Jane also claims to have seen video of the commanding officer calling the student protesters “fucking morons” and saying, “there’s consequences as an adult,” as if it’s somehow their fault that someone tried to drive a car into their march. For the record: If you use your car to intentionally hurt people, you are a bad person. No amount of annoyance or personal inconvenience justifies using a deadly weapon to attack a group of protesters, cyclists or anyone else you don’t like.

cross-posted from: https://lemmygrad.ml/post/4480697

> US politicians threaten to invade Int'l Criminal Court if Israel faces war crimes charges

Emphasis mine.

> An appeals court in Georgia has agreed to take up former President Donald Trump's appeal of the Fani Willis disqualification ruling that ultimately allowed her to remain on the Georgia election interference case -- a move that could significantly delay the case against the former president.

A Bluesky post

> Reuters has really done an amazing job detailing, piece by piece, how Tesla is basically a giant pile of fraud built on the back of poorly built tech and the empty promises of an opportunistic bullshitter.

It's a Cnbc link but it's the Reuter's article.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/08/in-tesla-autopilot-probe-us-prosecutors-focus-on-securities-wire-fraud-.html

>NASA astronauts will have to wait until another day to launch to orbit in the Boeing Starliner spacecraft. The planned launch was called off Monday night because of a problem in the Atlas V rocket that was to send them to space.

>Engineers will work through the night to assess whether the two astronauts, Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams, can get back on the launchpad on Tuesday, or if repairs will be needed that could delay the flight by at least several days.