Only two ways this goes. Really really funny. Or really really bad

I can't remember if I saw it posted here or abroad, but I think it was a tweet of someone saying their evangelist chinese granddad thinks god sent trump to destroy america and this is only furthering that idea in my head.

- Bookmarking this so I don’t have to keep reuploading it over the next 4 years

We shouldn't assume that our enemy is acting out of pure stupidity, as entertaining as it is. We've been laughing about how stupid Trump is because his actions look stupid under our assumption that the US want to maintain their vassals empire.

But what if the new Republican administration decided to change strategy?

Here's a theory I've seen than makes sense to me:

The US is putting tariffs on and souring relations with their own vassals because they don't want to keep these increasingly expensive to maintain vassals anymore. They are looking to ditch them, grabbing anything they can on the way out, so that they can concentrate their ever dwindling military and economic power on protecting the American ruling class (including the foreigners capitalists who de-localized to the US) instead of having to protect the entire western ruling class.

The US ruling class must have realized that global dominance was a lost cause no matter what, and they are making an admittedly costly strategic retreat to avoid an even larger and more costly debacle later.

If this is the case, then suddenly, Trump's tariffs frenzy makes sense: they are tariffing the EU and Canada to hell, cutting subsidies to them and ditching Taiwan even though they are US vassals because they are ditching them, the US is cutting their losses before the cracks of the empire becomes a fatal wound.

It also explain why he didn't do any of that during Trump's first term back in 2016: the empire was still relatively stable back then, there was no other political, military or economic block capable of challenging NATO to the extent BRICS is doing now.

Heck, that would even explain why Trump of all peoples was the one to get a ceasefire out of Israel.

I don't really buy it. Unwinding the US empire might be a side-effect here but I don't think it's their primary goal. I think there's a couple things going on. First you have Trump and Elon who are probably just looking to enrich themselves and their buddies. They aren't really true believers in anything but they see a smash & grab opportunity. And then second in the background you have the Heritage Foundation in there handing Trump & Elon the hammers to, hopefully, smash their way to a Christian Libertarian paradise.
Trump has had expansionist rhetoric that seems to contradict the idea that they want to get rid of their vassals. In fact the only reason the Canada tariffs seem to exist is to coerce them into joining as a state - which yes would get rid of them as a vassal but in practical terms doesnt change the relationship much since like 80% of Canada's trade is with the US.
- Oh sure, Trump and Elon are arrogant idiots opportunists just trying to line their pockets, but they aren't alone at the top, they still have to follow the American ruling class' agenda. That's how they'll be rewarded with donations from lobbyists and other unsavory types. Plus, history show that the CIA is more than willing to shoot an American president that steps out of line if it comes to that.
  I don't think the point about Canada really contradict this hypothesis. Even if they go ahead with annexing Canada and Greenland I could still see them ditching Europe, Japan and South Korea. And I don't agree that the US annexing Canada wouldn't change their relations much, as dependent and integrated to the US economy as Canada is, it's still separate economy that the US currently have relatively limited control over. By taking over Canada, the US would completely integrate Canada's economy into theirs, which I expect would temporarily alleviate some of the economic stress the US is under, as well as give them direct exploitation rights to Canadian natural resources and incontestable military access to the current Canadian territory and national waters.
I agree. Especially with Trump’s posturing towards Canada and Mexico with talks of annexation and invasion, it is increasingly clear that the US is starting to view allies and neighbors as targets for their exploitation, and the existing imperial apparatus as dead weight as their own geopolitical position weakens. The US doesn’t want to subsidize the existing organs of empire that it shares with the EU, Canada, etc; rather they want to pare this operation down to refocus themselves, and those who don’t comply with the goals of the empire will get sanctioned, overthrown, or invaded regardless of their previous ally status. They don’t see Western countries as partners in crime anymore, they are targets and liabilities to the US bourgeoisie
- and those who don’t comply with the goals of the empire will get sanctioned, overthrown, or invaded regardless of their previous ally status. They don’t see Western countries as partners in crime anymore, they are targets and liabilities to the US bourgeoisie
  The previous dismantlement of European industries by the US these past years was kinda going in that direction, in hindsight.
- I will say that I’ll be shocked if they actually quit supporting the Taiwan separatists though. The US just gains too much from supporting them in terms of hard power projection in East Asia, and in utilizing their semiconductor industry. That latter point is becoming more tenuous as the US tries to build its own semiconductor industry, but they still rely heavily on Taiwan for this. Imperialism isn’t gonna stop and they love exploiting the cheap labor there and hopeless political cause of the ROC as a base for military and intelligence operations. It seems the main goal is to stop the soft power and aid to pad the margins of empire a bit more
That's surely a very positive development, then? How is imperialism supposed to continue in that new reality? Wouldn't the US just become any other country with nuclear weapons if it can't project force the way it currently does?
- I've seen the counter to this like of thinking in that the US still has military bases all around the world. It sounds good, but I'm also hesitant to believe this until we get rid of those. And the military industrial complex is too valuable to the US economy to get rid of. It provides jobs in basically every state.
- personal opinion, take with a grain of salt
  It is a very good development overall, but it does probably mean than the US is going to become even more aggressive than they already are. For the vassals, it's not going to be fun for either classes. The American loyalists' influence is going to evaporate at warp speed, that's guarantied, but it's not clear who is gonna take their place. As for imperialism and power projection, imperialism is based mainly on unequal economic base development resulting in unequal exchange of wealth, so it's going to continue until the material conditions of the exploited nations change, US power projection is not going to end but merely change form, the shutdown of foreign aid probably implies the abandonment of the overarching narrative control and color revolution doctrine of regime change in favor to a more covert pre-1960s CIA style approach.
- Its positive in that it likely will shake the neoliberal world apart. Or at least be the equivalent to the death of the Soviets in 91. The concerning thing is that:
  vulnerable (minorities, LGBT+, anyone "left") people within America will be harmed
  America will engage in even more genocidal wars
  I personally fear that if America starts to lose, especially any civil conflict, that it will willing nuke itself/others out of spite.
  Sure all that 3 are possible with any other nuclear/large nation that's self harming, but #3 really worries me because American brains are incredibly nuke happy. I just can't see a Soviet style turnover occurring without at least the legitimate threat of some nuclear event.
we'd see troop reductions and base closure if this was true.

Lathe time: Trump starts saying that Taiwan is getting too much of a free ride, which is costing the US billions and billions. He then forces them to reintegrate with the mainland with threats of a 300% tariff.

This makes me think Musk actually is in charge here. The dude is desperate to get more Teslas into China. If he’s pulling the strings you actually might see a bunch of policies favorable to China.

I mean, what we've seen so far is "up to 20 years in prison if you build an AI based on DeepSeek". Musk does have an interest in the Chinese market both for sales and manufacturing, but i wonder if he wouldn't have to give that up in the future, given that Teslas can only compete when you hit Chinese BEV manufacturers with the biggest tariff stick you can get your hands on. The current government's main backers are all people who've bazinga'ed themselves into a corner and are sitting on portfolios threatened by the imminent collapse of the bubble they've ridden for the last decade, and it's gonna be wild to see how they struggle to fight that.

Why would it end badly? If anything it's a sign that peaceful reunification might be possible within four years without the US going to war over it

Because they'd been propping up Taiwan and China's neighbors until just a few months ago, why would they let such a huge investment go down the drain? Unless they recalculated and don't plan to attack China anymore, which, being the US, I'm reluctant to believe but I could see it if it's to go for smaller fish. After all, China wouldn't be going anywhere (geopolitically) even if the US military threw every last thing it had at it.