Florida is nearing toss-up status as top Republican poll shows Trump’s lead nearly vanished

I will not believe it until it happens. Just like Texas. But if she does win, I am willing to bet it comes along with additional house seats.

in 2020 republicans went hard after the cuban vote. wonder how that'a going this time.
- I live in Miami and i hate to report that it's going swimmingly well for the GOP. There's a culture down here that anything even looking like it might be confused with a leftist policy is immediately labeled COMMUNIST and hated with incessant fervor. No one dares be seen as a Castro-fellating leftist scumbag so they're constantly virtue signaling how republican they are. Same with anything the Catholic church doesn't like as there are lots of Catholics here and they vote as they're told. The result is you're as likely to see a Trump sign in a million dollar yard as a broke-ass apartment complex. Spanish-language talk radio here is so far to the right it wants to harvest the poor for their organs and bone marrow.
  
  If Florida goes for Harris I will be legitimately amazed. Thrilled, no doubt, but amazed.
- Doesn’t FL have a significant Haitian population too? I wonder how the pet-eating comments went over with them?
I mean Florida happened in 2012. Texas I think was 1976. So I'm with you, just I'm feeling FL is a little more reasonable.
- Ohio was 2012 too. It feels like such a different world.

Holy fuck. If she takes Florida and Texas?

God damn. It will be a mandate from the people lmao.

#VOTE!

Both abortion and legal weed are on the ballot in FL, so expect a larger than normal turnout.
- I want to watch DeSantis eat a giant shit sandwich.
If Texas turns blue, Republicans will blame immigrants instead of their unpopular policies that got it there.
- If Texas turns blue, the 2020 post-election period is going to look like rainbows compared to what the GOP will do this year.
- 100% and I will keep enjoying my Tex-mex. Thank you immigrants for some seasoning on this bland white ppl food.
The reason she won't is because of aggressive redistricting and roll purging by de santis. The polls are of likely voters. The thing about roll purges is it means people who thought they were registered to vote won't be able to.

In fact most states in which trump's minions have established control over the election apparatus will have a strong red shift away from the polls.

I know I'm one "not team fascist" vote in Florida that wasn't there for the last election. So there's that.

Pretty big deal if it holds up another week or two.

Note however, that NS does not have them as being this close:

*Checking the other results in FL, this is a bit of a fever dream. Only engage with it if you haven't had some time for self-care this morning.

Keep in mind that ~R+3 is itself close and withing the margin of error of a lot of polls. Many of the swing states have had near D+3 margins in the average at one point
- A bigger issue than MOE is structural bias.
  
  Here is FL 2020:
  
  Dem's face a self-imposed structural disadvantage in both inter and intrastate models.
  
  R+3 in FL should be read more accurately as R+6 or R+7 based on the best most recent structural bias measurement we have. The article is weekend whacking material.
- Also keep in mind the electoral college gives a significant percentage to Republicans

Here are the actual poll results which the article helpfully does not link to.

Napolitan News surveys ask an initial question to determine the voter preference for each candidate. Then, a follow-up question is asked of uncommitted voters to see which candidate they are leaning towards. The results are then reported “with leaners.”

On the initial ask– the number without leaners– it was Trump 50%, Harris 47%.

This Napolitan News Service survey of 774 Likely Voters was conducted online by Scott Rasmussen on September 25-27, 2024. Field work for the survey was conducted by RMG Research, Inc. and has a margin of error of +/- 3.5.

I think articles like this based on a single poll which appears to be an outlier are uninformative, but I guess they get clicks.

It's not that much of an outlier. Nate Silver is tracking Trump's lead in Florida across numerous polls at +3%. With leaners, this poll found +2%. Off the average by one point with a 3.5% margin of error. Which is to say, well in line with other results.

The article is sensationalistic and likely wrong in portraying that as a toss-up or close to tied. Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%. A result that suggests he has a similar lead suggests that he'll win by about as much as he did in 2020.

Silver has seven recent polls that inform the Florida average. Not a single one shows Harris ahead. Trump has also outperformed his polling in both of the last two contests, so his actual lead in Florida may be greater than the polling average suggests, but there is nothing to suggest Harris is ahead or likely to pull ahead.

Trump is likely to win Florida. The race still hinges primarily on Pennsylvania. Harris is not gaining ground. The race is locked in essentially a dead heat, with a tiny edge for Harris if you believe the polls and a tiny edge for Trump if you believe he'll again outperform the polls.

I detest these articles and the conspiratorial side of me thinks they're planted by the right to encourage complacency among Democratic voters. This election is as close as they come and requires everyone to show up and vote.
- Trump won Florida in 2020 by +3%
  
  Trump won Florida by 3% where the polling suggested he was trailing by 3%, to just sharpen that point a bit.
- Yeah, people are delusional if they think Florida, which overwhelmingly voted for DeSantis, has any chance of going to Harris.
- Nate Silver
  
  He predicted a Hillary win in 2016. Go with the guy who gets it right, professor Allan Lichtman. He actually correctly predicted a Gore win in 2000 but the vote count was stopped by the Brooks Brothers riot and subsequently awarded to Bush by the right wing Extreme Court.

I think she’s got a fair chance of winning FLA, but if she does, it means she’s already won most of the swing states, so there’s not much point in investing the massive amount of cash it would take to win. But, like Iowa and Alaska, the fact that it’s this close is a very encouraging sign.

Winning FL would flip the entire table over. She's not remotely close to winning FL right now. The polls in the article disagree wildly from all of the other polls we have on the matter. Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020. Trump won by 4 points in FL. Harris is behind in most polls by 3.

She's improved her postilion in FL. She's not remotely close to winning it. When the polls come in at +6-7 for Harris in FL, that is when she is now "break even".
- Plus it needs to be a massive number to overcome the, "This was clearly altered we are not certifying send it to the supreme court"
  
  Less because that would stop a refusal to certify, and more because it might be able to kick the Republican SC members into choosing to not hand it to the GoP in fear of retalitation
  
  Can't remove them from the court. CAN shoot them
- Biden was 4 points ahead in FL in 2020
  
  ? In this very comment section you were mentioning polling average earlier that showed it as ~2.5%
  
  Assuming the error is the same direction as 2020 is not a given. Pollsters have made changes to their model that intentionally put more weight on areas likely to have trump supporters. Amid other changes
  
  Not saying she will necessarily win florida, but assuming the worst case all the time is not always accurate either
That's not how that works. It's entirely possible she wins Florida and loses Michigan for example.
- Not my first rodeo. The probability of her winning the blue wall is greater than winning Florida. She does that and she wins the Presidency. Her efforts must remain there. If they roll, there is a chance Florida will flip too.
- It's highly improbable though. If she flips Florida, a state she's down in despite the headline, she most likely won Michigan by a wide margin.
  
  It's possible, but like pigs learning to fly possible.

"Nearing toss-up status" aka Trump is still winning above the margin for error. Most likely if Harris wins FL it would be after winning PA, MI, WI, NC, GA, AZ, and thus easily the election.

The leads in some of the latest Florida polls are now within margin of error of those polls

It’s my birthday in November. Please, please, all I want this year is Florida. Shove any physical gifts you were going to give me straight into DeSantis’s colon. I hope they’re large and pointy.

Homie, if she wins Florida, it’s everyone’s birthday.
As another November birthday, I’ll combine my potential gifts with your wish as well.
You think republicans voting against FEMA funding would wake this crowd up, but they'll probably find some way to blame it on Biden

Everybody talks about Florida man and forgets Florida woman.

...this has given rise to the foolish opinion among people that there are no floridawomen, and that the floridamen grow out of methlabs! Which is of course ridiculous

She needs to focus primarily on blue wall and secondarily on sun belt. FL should be an afterthought, at best.

They are primarily focusing on the main swing states for president, but Florida does matter a good amount in terms of the senate though. It's a rarer somewhat close pickup opportunity. With Montana not looking as great lately we'll likely need to flip either Texas senate or Florida senate to keep the senate control. Or there's the close race in Nebraska where Indepdent Osborn could give us a 49-49-1 senate if neither flip and we lose Montana
- You’re on top of the Senate races. Good job!

Remember: to pass the abortion ammendment they need 60%. If it passes, no way Harris doesn't get 50%.

I'd like to note that I've read a couple articles (economist and I think NPR) where they specifically ask people and they said they would vote to protect abortion but also vote trump. Yes, people are that dumb.

Two, last election I think it was they voted medical mj and higher minimum wage but still voted desantis. You shouldn't get your hopes up honestly.

How weird would it be for the Dems to lose Michigan and win Florida and Texas?

The poll in the article was in the field before the storm(s) but no Florida poll will be reliable for the foreseeable future. Half of the Tampa-St. Pete region is going to be evacuating this week should the Hurricane Milton develop according to forecasts. Parts of the state are dealing with Helene.

Voting isn’t even going to be predictable, much less polling. Committed voters will do anything to vote but a lot of people are detached from politics and are going to be busy with home repairs, insurance companies, or just not coming back.

If Harris wins FL then Trump should be reminded every single day that his pride and joy, Mar-a-Lago, resides in a blue state. Maybe it’ll make him sell & move to Arkansas…

Everything is in toss up territory this year. Right now AZ, NV, MI, WI, PA, GA, NC, and FL are in toss up territory. That's the takeaway from all the models and polling right now.

Get out and vote.