Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF
Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF
www.bbc.com
Russia to grow faster than all advanced economies says IMF
35 comments
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@mozz@mbin.grits.dev Regarding our prior discussion from months ago about the effect of sanctions on Russia and on Europe, I think this particular piece from the BBC is highly relevant and also has the benefit of time away from our initial discussion to show a bit of a trend, don't you think?
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Sure. Here's what I think:
I think the Russian GDP is roughly half of Germany's GDP alone, even though Russia is 50 times larger and came with some natural advantages as of a few decades ago (good education system, good fossil fuel reserves, things like that). Russia's entire GDP is quite a bit smaller than just the US yearly defense budget. I don't think single digit percentage swings up or down year by year mean all that much to that one way or another.
I do think it's accurate that Russia's surviving the sanctions overall surprisingly well. I think it's also true that they are close to a breakthrough in Ukraine if the US aid doesn't come through; Ukraine is getting drips of aid from various countries, but a quite successful Russian foreign influence operation has been holding up the Ukraine aid in the American congress for 6 months now, and without it, I think Russia's likely to actually start winning the war within a matter of months or weeks.
I don't think it's a strong advertisement for Russia that they have managed, by mobilizing their entire economic and military might, to penetrate a hundred miles or so across the border of a fairly tiny neighbor of theirs and then get stalled there for 2 years. I remember you saying that that was exactly the plan, so that they could bleed the western economies to death right there at the eastern border of Ukraine, but that doesn't seem believable to me.
I would expect that if the US aid comes through, then Ukraine will either slowly or quickly start winning the war again (although that's a long way away from saying I think they'll win completely if that happens). I think if the aid doesn't come through (or if another massive package gets held up in the future in the same way), then Russia stands a pretty good chance of starting to make some gains, maybe quite significant ones. I don't think that's a good statement about the relative economic / military prowess of Russia as compared with the whole West as a whole though.
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I think the Russian GDP is roughly half of Germany’s GDP alone, even though Russia is 50 times larger and came with some natural advantages as of a few decades ago
A few decades ago was USA economic shock therapy that absolutely destroyed the country. "Natural advantages" don't factor into it.
I do think it’s accurate that Russia’s surviving the sanctions overall surprisingly well.
It's literally growing faster than every country in the G7 while under the West's most aggressive sanction regime possible and you think it's "surviving"?
I don’t think it’s a strong advertisement for Russia that they have managed, by mobilizing their entire economic and military might, to penetrate a hundred miles or so across the border of a fairly tiny neighbor of theirs and then get stalled there for 2 years.
Russia's military is literally larger than it was when they started the SMO but nearly all measures. They haven't mobilized even half of their military might in this SMO. And they fought not only Ukraine's entire military but also military aid from the US that literally is equivalent to Russia's entire military budget. So they fought, dollar-for-dollar, a military that was larger than it and it came out bigger. How's that math for you?
I remember you saying that that was exactly the plan, so that they could bleed the western economies to death right there at the eastern border of Ukraine, but that doesn’t seem believable to me.
I never said they were trying to bleed Western economies to death. I said their objective was to make the West overextend itself, because that's how the USA lost Vietnam and Afghanistan. If history isn't believable, what is?
I would expect that if the US aid comes through, then Ukraine will either slowly or quickly start winning the war again
Ukraine was never winning to begin with, aid or no aid. There has been no point in this conflict where Ukraine had the upper hand on the war writ large. Every thing that made any gains got swallowed up quite quickly afterward. And that was with aid equivalent to Russia's entire military budget.
I don’t think that’s a good statement about the relative economic / military prowess of Russia as compared with the whole West as a whole though.
If the West goes through a recession, or worse, while Russia goes through a boom cycle, you'll quickly see that absolute dollar values don't matter.
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I think the Russian GDP is roughly half of Germany’s GDP alone
not when measured in PPP
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I remember you saying that that was exactly the plan, so that they could bleed the western economies to death right there at the eastern border of Ukraine
The economies? I could see the argument for Russia bleeding Western political support for Ukraine, but it's just fantasy (or propaganda) to suggest a single economy the size of Russia could bleed the combined economies of all Western countries to death.
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Should I at mozz again?
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lmao let's see the copes
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Much easier to go from scrub weed to tree than to keep growing as a tree.
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yeah, cause that's totally a sensible comparison to make
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It absolutely is, that’s why the article is using percentages and not dollar amounts
Going from $1 to $2 is a 100% increase but you’re still fucking broke afterwards, and the guy whose $1,000 only grew by 1% still made 10 times more money than you lol
Maybe instead of spending all their money murdering Ukrainians they should be trying to create a country where the leading cause of death for young men isn’t alcoholism
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because producing war materials is propping up the economy in the short term. its a war economy but producing shit to blow up so too use up is not something that will be a benefit in the long term. sanctions is something that works over the long term and that need to be adjusted over time.
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Also, when your economy is doing so poorly it's easy to do better. When your economy is doing well, it's more difficult to improve.
Mathematically, if I give a naked homeless person with no worldly possessions a sandwich, they have infinitely more wealth. It's still just a sandwich though.
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35 comments
Sanctions have been a blessing for Russia and China. Seems like they just make massive economies more self-sustaining and global south-oriented.
Russia's bet on the Global South century
Well, it's less of a bet and more like their capitalist ruling class was forced into it because of the sanctions. But it's been shaping up to be a good thing for Russia overall, and that should get even truer as China overtakes the US.
The West has basically removed itself as a competitor to Russia ergo subsidizing the cost of building industry by simply leaving a void. It was so obvious that the sanctions were going to blow up in our face.
Uh, have you seen the Chinese economy recently?
Yes, and it is booming. It keeps outperforming the sputtering western economies by leaps and bounds.