Liberals Surge to between 42 and 49 Points as Progressive Voters Rally Behind Carney

Alt-right pipeline is alive and flourishing. Check on your loved ones mental health and reach across the aisle with open arms if you can, block if you can't. Try not to feed the trolls, and Godspeed!
E: can to can't
- That can have pitfalls itself, can't it? If I knew someone who was going down that path I'd worry about it feeling like I'm policing them rather than valuing and supporting them.
- Check on your loved ones mental health and reach across the aisle with open arms if you can, block of you can
  Are you advocating to block loved ones if their mental health is too far gone or am I misreading this?
Try watching YouTube with a new email and watch your suggestions. If you watch a single right wing video that is all you will ever get.
Same with tiktok and Instagram.
Also young men aren't interested in secondary education, they're having trouble with jobs, women don't want to date then due to their right wing views, so they're doubling down even further.
Many are angry, so they blame the guy that’s been around for the last decade. They are too young to remember what Stephen Harper did and don’t seem interested in figuring it out.
- That's definitely a big part of it, but the alt-right pipeline/manosphere shit is real and out of control in western/American social media. Things are pretty hellish right now economy-wise all over and all the social media algorithms are perfectly tuned to push "solutions" or out-groups to blame for it all.
  It's like if you don't already have a political leaning to purposely influence your feed, everything is now setup to push you down a far right wing path where everything is the fault of women, LGBTQ+ people, immigrants, etc.
The one Canadian MAGA in my family is my younger cousin. He had some rough economic and health times and the latter affected his cognitive ability. I feel really bad for him but he’s a true PP believer even through this.
- Dang so sorry to hear, I don't known any vocal PP thumpers around me, but he's just so bland but like not the normal Candian kinda way, like made in a lab way.
It looks more to me like being anti-Trudeau/incumbent correlates with youth. You'll notice they're also the top NDP group in these results.
Most young people just aren't political, and those that are are mostly left-leaning in my bubble. It's just hard to picture most of them complaining about wokeism or whatever.
That's an Americanism. Canadian boomers aren't as malignantly conservative.
A lot of people are going to tell you that "it's the algorithm", and there's some truth to that, but honestly I think it's a lot more straightforward:
The boomers got everything, and when they burned through that, they burned through the millennials' share too. If you're growing up a zoomer, you're looking around at a world literally on fire, and the emergence of what is effectively feudalism as the dominant world ~~religion~~ economic system. You'll never own a home, because literally everything is rented now. You're probably working 2 jobs, though they barely qualify for that word because there's zero security and you're carrying all the risk.
You're watching a literal genocide playing out on your phone, while the outgoing Trudeau proudly declares himself a Zionist, and literally everything is expensive, especially food.
Now, consider the political climate:
The NDP (and to a greater extent, the entire global left) is toothless and obsessing over identity politics, and if you tell your friends you're going to vote for them you're either laughed at or told you're "wasting" your vote.
The Liberals are refusing to recognise the dire state of the economy and the fear & frustration you have. Instead they go on TV and say that the problem with the economy is "vibes" and that voting for Conservatives means you hate gay people.
The Conservatives acknowledge that fear and frustration. They don't gaslight you with claims that "the stocks are up, so the economy is fine". No, they cast blame: "Trudeau did this. He torched the economy for 'wokeism'. He put on silly costumes with foreign dignitaries while you had to move back in with your parents. He did this. Him, and those immigrants, and if you vote for us, we'll get rid of all of that".
They've got the best story, and their opposition is either inept or oblivious. If they hadn't made the mistake of cozying up to Trump, they'd be a shoe-in for the next election.
- The NDP (and to a greater extent, the entire global left) is toothless and obsessing over identity politics,
  They're not though. The NDP has concrete policies about affordability, the economy and the environment, and also advocates for minorities to be treated fairly. Whereas the Conservatives don't have any plans except to stir up resentment and hatred.
- So who tells a tale that’s the strongest of all? The ones who cast blame and make others feel small. And if they weren’t friends with a man named Old Trump, They’d be winning not whining about current slumps.
- Not to mention the right offers a refuge for straight young men because nobody else is speaking to them.
  If you’re not pure enough you’re toxic and part of the patriarchy. LGBTQIA2SBIPOC or bust.
  Where do you go? Well turns out there are plenty of groups willing to accept you.
  Come be an alpha bro. You just need to hit the gym, find God, pick up a gun and invest in crypto.
  Then you won’t be lonely anymore.
Their more progressive parents should've tried parenting.

Wow that’s a HUGE rise. I wonder what other polling firms will show this week.

EKOS is the clear outlier, but Leger has the Liberals tied on votes (which puts them at a likely win and a chance of a majority thanks to their far more efficient distribution) and Mainstreet has them with a five point lead.
It's also worth noting that EKOS has tended to predict recent trends in a way that other polling hasn't. They were the first to show the Liberal recovery happening at all. This poll is an outlier, but it agrees with the overall trend in the data, just more strongly.
This also aligns with polling on opinions and issues. Canadians, by far, see "Handling Trump" as their top priority right now, with "The Economy" in second, and Carney is seen as the best choice on both. While Pollievre polls decently on economy, he's seen as a total pushover or even a willing accomplice where Trump is concerned, thanks to his constant parroting of GOP talking points and his complete inability to openly condemn Trump's actions.
However, while this poll agrees with the overall direction, and EKOS has been a leading indicator, the odds of seeing actual results like this are incredibly slim. An actual election like this would give the CPC their lowest ever seat count since the merger. It would probably destroy the party entirely.
- Hey, he's not a complete pushover, he put out a tweet (or an X?) confirming he's Canadian. He also changed "America" to "Canada" when he started reusing Trump's exact slogan. /s

The liberal majority in Alberta is shocking. I never thought I'd see the day

From the article:
The Liberals enjoy decisive leads in seat-rich Ontario and Quebec. Curiously, the Liberals have a statistically insignificant edge in Alberta; however, this finding is almost certainly an artefact of chance given the small sample size in the province (this finding did not appear in our parallel Probit survey).
- Everything about that sentence makes the statistician in me cry
  Take anything Ekos post with a grain of salt please
He's an Edmonton kid. Albertans like Albertans. Here's hoping we see this keep climbing.

Next, we really need proportional representation.

Proportional representation only looks good on a spreadsheet. It's terrible when you consider power dynamics, which you should when thinking about political systems.
- As if First Past the Post didn't have shitty power dynamics.
- Which power dynamics? Like, coalition building?
- You mean like the shit power dynamic of a party always forming a majority government with only 40% of the vote?

I support the NDP but I have moved somewhere with little chance of a seat going that way so more than likely I'll go for whichever party shows better chance of beating the conservative candidate.

At this moment in time, this is the way.

I saw Liberals leading Alberta, which made me do a double take.

Then I read the small print. Yeah, keep your expectations in check it's not that hype.

Other recent polls have put the Liberals in the lead, but not by this much. Time will tell if it's just a bit ahead of the curve or a true outlier.
Better than UCP? Or they don't run federally I guess? Idk much about Alberta
- UCP was and no longer is the combination of the old AB Progressive Conservative Party and the alt right party Wildrose. Jason was a shortsighted greedy twit and Wildrose cannibalized his party from within as everyone could've and did predict. It was the only quick way to win an election again after the PC's disgraced themselves with a string of incompetent/corrupt leaders in a row and the ANDP finally won a single term. Unite The Right was the slogan. United Conservative Party. Straight forward naming.
  UCP is a provincial party only. They're basically Republicans, and work with Take Back Alberta which are kinda like the Heritage Foundation behind Project 2025 in the USA. They're currently preoccupied with forcing diversity policy out of Edmonton Public Libraries.
  Provincial Liberals are irrelevant here because the ANDP is closer to the political alignment of the federal Liberals than the federal NDP, so they're redundant. Federally the Liberals name has been mud in Alberta since Trudeau Sr. and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Energy_Program
  edit: ANDP only lost the last election by a couple thousand votes. Notley stepped down, Nenshi won leadership for opposition, the ex mayor of Calgary. Moved party further to center? I guess. That's the speculation, and Nenshi mused about changing the color from Orange to Purple. As in, mix conservative blue with center-left orange.
  idk may as well give a better overview.

Carney, Carney, he's our man, if he can't do it no one can

You love to see it.

A bankster, apart from the posture against Trump it won't be an upgrade from Trudeau. NDP are realy hopeless if they can't benefit from this mess.

I voted NDP last time around, but Singh is an idiot, and no one respects an idiot. Why did he want to vote no confidence to have an early election which would result in a CPC majority? He got too caught up in political bullshit, and I can't respect him.
The priority now is to prevent Poilievre from getting into power. Singh isn't the guy to do that, Carney is.
- I really don't like Singh or the current NDPs but the liberal union busting kinda left the ndp with no other choice.
  I agree with your last sentence, as always ABC (fwiw that's green for me), now is the time for unity among the left, unless the liberals do something truly staggeringly unconscionable.
- Last election the NDP also straight-up didn't have a platform, too, just a vague list of aspirations.

Please not another liberal government, getting tired of the restrictions they place on law abiding citizens.

Which ones? Is it the "can't not pay for social services" restriction? The "can't secretly own a firearm" resteiction? Or the "can't overrule other countries' entry requirements" restriction?
- I'll be voting libs but man those firearm restrictions are straight bullshit.
- Is it the "can't not pay for social services" restriction?
  You mean unnecessary use of resources tax.
  The "can't secretly own a firearm" resteiction?
  Secret? The firearms bans are only affecting people apart of the Canadian Firearms Program, people who have gone through the CFSC and daily background checks.
  You think criminals are actually going to follow the law and abide by these bans? It’s literal abuse of OIC just to take law abiding citizens property.
  the "can't overrule other countries' entry requirements" restriction?
  I assume you’re referring to the B.C women who was recently arrested over at the US border. Ultimately she went down there with incomplete documentation, like everyone else she should’ve sorted that out before even attempting to cross.