it looks more like 3/4 of a circle with 20km-ish radius. but this comes from openly available sources, that at this point consist mainly of whatever panicked russian civilians sent to the most reliable source in the world, russian telegram channels. syrskyi knows much more and in more detail
Russia holds considerable defense in depth. ~20km depth is not alot in area or value. Moral hit is considerable, puts Russia on the defensive in one area, but Ukraine has not even pushed Russia out of their initial gains or reclaimed its border.
I don’t think it’s a depressing reminder… not like Ukraine is going to march to Moscow.
It’s just reminding Russia that Ukraine is not afraid to hit back and forcing Russia to spend resources on defence. I doubt Ukraine will seriously try to hold this territory, just make it costly to retake.
You're right, I'm doubtful they will match on Moscow - won't be surprised if they drone it though.
Just keeping in mind this isn't a war ending stellar breakthrough that many believe - its a blow for Russia, a boost for Ukraine, fighting in a new field around a new village. Russia has been invaded plenty of times, but that depth is a killer.
I think you have no proofs. As a Russian, it's insane to assume Russia would spend resources on keeping any meaningful defense far from borders. And from places Putin often visits, of course.