Still, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages online betting sites, Kelly has a 34.9 percent chance of being the presumptive nominee’s vice-presidential pick.
Also according to that site, Kamala Harris has 0.8% odds to be Kamala Harris’s VP, slightly edging out Gavin Newsome.
The Harris campaign is still vetting candidates and has not made its pick yet. Still, according to electionbettingodds.com, which averages online betting sites, Kelly has a 34.9 percent chance of being the presumptive nominee’s vice-presidential pick.
Jfc. Taking the odds from an aggregate of betting websites and using that as a verified source seems crazy to me.
Arizona is not a solidly blue state, and Mark Kelly is unusually popular for a senator.
Arizona Democrats also don't have that deep of a bench to pull out a candidate that's a lock for a statewide race.
I'm not saying it's impossible for any Democrat to win the election for Mark Kelly's seat, I am saying it's a significant risk that they probably won't want to take.
And that's before taking into account that Arizona Democrats already have a handful with the seat being left open by their current manic pixie dream senator.
A 60-year-old? Running alongside a 59-year-old?? What is this, a fuckin' crèche? Their mother's milk is still wet on their faces! How can they compete against a worldly wisdom-haemorrhaging wise man in his 80s like Trump when they're barely out of their baby diapers, while Trump is already well into his adult diapers phase?
Jesus, go back to your pogo sticks and bubblegum and stickerbooks and let a grown-up have a shot. Sheesh.
So in the scenario that he is the VP and they win, a democrat would be appointed to the senate, but instead of the seat being up in 2028 in a presidental general election year the seat would be up in an off election year with a democratic president (2026). I'm not sure this is wise in terms of keeping the senate.
Without knowing more specific + or - details about the possible choices, I'd pick Shapiro over Kelly when you add up all the variables:
As a governor Shapiro has executive experience, which Kelly doesn't. Cooper is also a governor but is already 67.
Pennsylvania is an absolute must-win state. Arizona is also very important but is not a must-win. Gotta get PA.
Shapiro is only 51 so would still be plenty young enough in 8 years to run for POTUS.
With Shapiro you're not taking a current Senator off the field like with Kelly. Yes the Dem gov will appoint another Dem but will that person (or other Dem) be able to win again in 2 years vs. keeping Kelly in place who is highly likely to be re-elected. We really need to build up a bigger majority in the Senate over the next couple of cycles to be able to get important things done.
We're so lucky! This could be the next dynamic due that the country really needs!
8,500,000,000 x Trumps < dog poop < rock < chimp < dolphin < really smart 3rd grader < grad student < Biden + Kamela < Kamela + Mark. I assume the world population is 8.5 billion because I would never vote Trump so he himself would have to vote himself in as the last person around.
Anyway, plus Mark is a minority! He might be the first Albino dolphin American astronaut to ever become president! LOL. All I. Good fun! Good luck you two! I'm counting on you!