The international diplomatic war over Taiwan’s status just escalated sharply

The high point of Taiwanese separatism was in 2019 when Tsai Ing-wen, despite being unpopular and almost getting primaried by the current Taiwanese president, was able to ride on the fears of the Hong Kong protests to win the presidency in 2020. After that, separatists have eaten nothing but L's since then.

1. They got BTFO in the 2022 local elections, topping it off with Chiang Kai-shek's bastard great-grandson getting elected as mayor of Taipei. This also means he has presidential ambitions, so a funny outcome would be Taiwan having a third president from the Chiang family.

2. They ate shit in the 2024 legislative elections and don't have a majority in the Yuan.

3. They got their president elected with a crappy plurality made worse by all the 16-17 year old TPP supporters who can't vote because they're too young, meaning his popularity is even weaker than it looks.

4. Taiwanese zoomers, basically the people who are of conscript age, are voting for TPP instead, which ruins the DPP's plan of replacing the KMT through age demographic changes. Just because the KMT is going to be the party of irrelevant boomers doesn't mean your party will get the zoomers.

5. The ROC military has openly displays signs of disloyalty including a retired general saying they should simply coup the DPP and various officers repeatedly getting bribed by the PRC to lay down their arms. It turns out accusing the KMT, of which the ROC military is politically, culturally, and historically aligned with, of selling out to the PRC in order to win votes for your presidential election has far-reaching consequences.

6. The combination of the Taiwanese economy stagnating and the dumpster fire with TSMC attempting to build a factory in Arizona is forcing Taiwanese business to push harder towards the status quo, where they can get favorable trade deals with the PRC.

This... is not a well written article.

Beijing’s new set of judicial guidelines targeting Taiwan independence advocates and dozens of Chinese planes entering Taiwan’s real estate come after a visit to Taipei last week by two US deputy assistant secretaries of state

I get what you mean but why didn't the editor catch this? This paper is a part of the billionaire owned Liberty Group, why don't they have editors?

Though there is a chance that the surfacing of a People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) Type 094 Jin class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine last Tuesday in the Taiwan Strait is connected, that is only possible if Chinese intelligence had gotten wind of what was about to happen ahead of time, which is hard to prove. If they had, they could have meant it as a warning to the US.

This is just straight up misleading. It's referring to an event last week where a Chinese submarine surfaced in the Taiwan straight. Technically. 200 KM west of Taiwan, 10km off the short of Xiamen. I am not joking, they literally state "A surfaced submarine, which appears to be a nuclear-armed Jin-class submarine, is pictured about 200km from the western coast yesterday." in the prior article I just linked. They then proceed to use a Reuters photo of TWO nuclear submarines (dated 2018) just to fearmonger some more.

A huge non-event to get clicks from paranoid China watchers is getting milked a SECOND TIME.

The amendments do not distinguish by nationality or geography, meaning anyone from any country could be tried in absentia in China.

The amendments also do not distinguish by species. My god! Your pet dog could be extradited to China!

According to human rights NGO Safeguard Defender,

Oh boy, an NGO cited. Every time you dig into these you get some gold. Lets look into "Safeguard Defender".

Director: Peter Dahlin, a writer for the far right pro Trump anti vaxxer "newspaper" Epoch Times. Oh, that was easy. You'd think an editor would catch this. Back to it.

I was asked once by some students from Hong Kong if I thought what happened to their city would be the model for the CCP if they took Taiwan. I said no, the model would be East Turkestan, what the Chinese have taken to calling Xinjiang, because Taiwan is not a compact, easily controlled space and Taiwanese historically have been rebellious

The ROC called it that too. So did the Qing dynasty. Because it's been the name of the region in Mandarin since the 1700's. The sentence is omitting "...what the Chinese have taken to calling Xinjiang since 1759"

Also, historically rebellious is a dubious claim. Most of the population of the island were the Establishment, not the Rebels in the civil war since they were refugees. If the author was talking about Aboriginal Taiwanese who went from the majority ethnicity of the island to less than 2% of the population today, I guess they did try to rebel before getting gunned down.

That the CCP put forth these amendments is no surprise, but that they picked last Friday to announce them was, as well as following them up with 48 hours of heightened incursions into the ADIZ. When the CCP is planning another dramatic change of the status quo, they go out of their way to also pick a date when it will send a message.

...

If this was their message, why not do it around the May 20 inauguration? Or even the one-month anniversary on June 20? Why Friday, June 21? This was very out of character for the CCP to just pick a random day with no particular historical significance or political activity going on.

This entire section is just padding for words. Dedicating 4 paragraphs to say absolutely nothing. "China normally does these military exercises near an event like Nancy Pelosi visiting, but this time nothing was happening, what are those inscrutable Chinese plotting?"

The English-language headline from the same story reads: “US officials say UN Resolution 2758 twisted: sources.” This was picked up by a few local news outlets, but only in a surprisingly limited way.

Ah ha! It's because last Thursday, 2 US officials along with representatives of Taiwan's 12 allies, and as well as those from other like-minded nations, including Australia, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, the EU, Finland, France, Japan, Luxembourg, New Zealand, Poland and the UK.. Disregarding the fact that he copy and pasted the list verbatim from his colleague at the Taipei Times including the error of implying The Vatican sent a representative to Taiwan for a 1 day secret summit, as well as representatives of the nation of "the EU". China is mad that this meeting that definitely happened (and also we are the only news to have reported on it in 3 days) so they had a submarine resurface 200km off the coast of Taiwan and fly planes in the ADIZ, which conveniently covers mainland China.

Who's the author for this article that would write like this? Let's check the biography he wrote about himself Oh cool, he's wearing a fedora and suspenders.

"On turning 19 years old, I decided to take a semester off of university and visit Taiwan in 1988. I fell in love with the country, and that semester off has lasted most of my life... As a co-founder of Taiwan Report, in writing for various publications, in large Facebook groups I founded" He's a college dropout who started a Youtube page that gets literally 2-3 digit views

Taipei Times saying the quiet part out loud "Beijing’s new set of judicial guidelines targeting Taiwan independence advocates and dozens of Chinese planes entering Taiwan’s real estate come after a visit to Taipei last week by two US deputy assistant secretaries of state"

People forget that the reason Taiwan's shifted to its current stance has been that the DPP has risen to power on the backs of rampant KMT corruption, not that Taiwanese people are in support of DPP foreign policy. Even so, the past election demonstrated that the majority of Taiwanese really don't want a DPP government... Unfortunately Lai is still head of state under the FPTP system, so here we are.

Both the KMT and TPP (which together received a majority of votes and would've won the election if not for the coalition negotiations failing to back a combined presidential ticket) support a more moderate stance with China.

In fact, today it's the DPP that's come under fire because of corruption. Recent bills that have passed through the Yuan have seen DPP members stealing bills before reading to avoid anti-corruption language from coming into effect and brawling other parties' legislators because of opposition. It's actually quite funny if you ever get the chance to watch proceedings.

They do not touch on the real reasons for these amendments. One is to look tough and nationalistic to their domestic audience. Another is to inflict psychological fear in Taiwanese and those who support Taiwan internationally that the CCP could potentially be coming for us, not only in China, Hong Kong and Macau, but in 45 other countries as well.

Hey guys did you know the real reason is to look tough and nationalistic and not (among other reasons) the US attempt to have an unsinkable air craft carrier to project power

According to human rights NGO Safeguard Defender

Lel

Taiwans ADIZ

I wonder why this extends into the mainland. Could there be historical context?

When the CCP is planning another dramatic change of the status quo, they go out of their way to also pick a date when it will send a message.

For example, often when countries switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, the announcement will be timed to pack a punch, such as Nauru making their announcement right after William Lai (賴清德) won the election. Similarly, there was no way the enormously complex live fire training exercises China launched to upend the status quo could have been planned in the tiny window of time from the-then US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi’s announcement she was to visit Taiwan and her arrival. They had planned it long in advance, — her trip was merely an excuse. To this day, it is common to see the Chinese military gray zone menacing behavior that continues being traced to Pelosi’s visit, almost as if she were somehow to blame.

Hey trust me they've been planing this for a long time. And these misogynists of course blame girl queen Pelosi. Not like China denounced the visit in advance. Classic reversal of cause and effect.

The Taiwan province English-speaking journalist class are shitting themselves because they know they'll be up against the wall when reunification comes.

Dont forget that the death penalty is now on the table for "taiwanese separatism".

Everything is coming to a head. Hopefully it can wait until after July 6th when I'll be safely in China