The silver lining in a very bad poll for Biden
The silver lining in a very bad poll for Biden
The Sun Belt is a disaster, but the Great Lakes states offer some hope of beating Trump.
And despite the prevalence of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the issue does not seem to be the driver of Biden’s base or electorate troubles.
“Defections over Gaza make up a little over 1 percent of Biden’s 2020 vote share. That’s not nothing, but also that’s such a small share. If you want to look at why Biden is sliding, the bigger reason is obviously the economy,” Jain told me. “If you look at people defecting over Gaza, 17 percent of them think that it’s because he’s been too favorable to Palestine.”
It's the economy, stupid.
Yeah, and I've said this before, but you quoted the relevant part: he's not taking action against Israel because he's stands to lose more in the election than he gains. And if Trump wins the election, he will absolutely give Israel explicit support for going all-in on the genocide, including expelling from Gaza all Palestinians that they don't murder.
You could argue that maintaining a supportive posture for Israel at this juncture benefits the Palestinians. There's simply too much lobbying money, and still too much voting solidarity, at stake; and Biden's bad for Palestine, but Trump is worse. We could hope that is Biden wins he'll take a firmer stance against the genocide, but I'm hoping it quietly.
This is the best summary I could come up with:
Younger and nonwhite voters — two bedrocks of the Democratic coalition — are especially unhappy with Biden, largely because of the state of the economy.
They are a key part of the Democratic coalition, and they have not necessarily made peace with supporting Biden’s reelection.
There’s a lot of those in the Sun Belt states,” Lakshya Jain, an analyst at the election modeling website Split Ticket, told me.
Democratic strength in the Sun Belt comes from good minority margins, and if in polls, Biden is holding up well with white voters, but not necessarily super well with nonwhites, then you would expect that to be magnified in the Sun Belt, because that’s where whites are already pretty conservative and you have a very high share of minority voters.”
And Jain, Iovino, and other data experts I spoke to told me they’re not entirely convinced with the specific numbers in the crosstabs: Trump, for example, is supposedly leading Biden among young voters nationally and winning women in Nevada.
A look under the hood shows an upset and disengaged electorate — but one with many persuadable voters and Americans who may soon tune back into the political cycle.
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It's not the economy, stupid. It's Israel.
Another poll showing nonwhite voters as some of the people most likely to be breaking from Biden. Can't wait for lemmy to tell me how privileged they all are for not liking Biden.