With two Boeing whistleblowers dead in one month, either Boeing is actively killing them, or there are enough whistleblowers that this rate of death is not statistically significant
With two Boeing whistleblowers dead in one month, either Boeing is actively killing them, or there are enough whistleblowers that this rate of death is not statistically significant
...and I don't know which possibility is the least worrying
Don't be fooled by randomness. Randomness comes in clumps. For example if you flipped a thousand coins every day for a year and measured how each one predicted the stock market, heads for up, tails for down, at the end of the year you'll likely have one coin that far out performs the average. But would you use that coin to determine your investment strategy the next year?
And yeah Boeing is now killing people outside of their planes.
Boeing is now killing people outside of their planes.
That's a great line!
Could this be akin to the Birthday paradox?
Not really. That is just a fact that there's only 365 days, and the more samples you make increases the odds it's a sample that overlaps with another (there are fewer unique options).
What the OP is saying is that sometimes randomness can appear less random than other randomness. True randomness will occasionally give results that closely match something non-random. It's why almost all music players don't use true random for shuffle. True random you could have the same song play 15 times in a row. In fact, that is expected to happen eventually (assuming infinite time) just as all other sets of 15 songs are.
That was a great read! Not something I've heard of before. Thank you!
And yeah it's related for sure.
The birthday paradox derives from how the chance of somebody there having their birthday on a specific day is 1-in-365 (ish)/nr-of-people hence the chance of two people having their birthday on that specific day is 1-in-365^2/nr-of-people, but the chance of two people having their birthday in the same day out of any days of the year is quite different because it's not a specific day anymore so it's quite a different calculation (which I totally forgot ;)).
In here the closest to that paradox would the chance of 2 whistleblowers of any company with whistleblowers dying within a few weeks of each other (which, depending on how many companies have whistleblowers, can be quite high) compared to the chance of 2 whistleblowers of Boeing dying within a few weeks of each other (which is statistically a lot lower unless there are thousands of Boeing whistleblowers).Edit: actually it's more the chance of any 2 Boeing whistleblowers dying with a few weeks of each other at any point in time (so this includes long after they did it) vs the chance of any 2 Boeing whistleblowers dying with a few weeks of each other during the time they are blowing the whilstle.
Idk if we have any NYJ fans in here, but 2 years ago the coin meme was born. One fan flipped the same quarter every game to predict a win or a loss. It was correct for like the first 7 or so games of the season. It was a pretty wild ride predicting some unpredictable upsets for the jets for both wins and loses.
But given the choice between coins you'd still most likely pick the one that was successful, even if its 99% chance its nonsense - the other coins would have 99.9% (made up numbers).
So out of our analogy, we can't be sure beyond resonable doubt to arrest Boeing, but a message has clearly been sent to any future whistleblowers
It takes a ton of bravery to be a whistle blower when others aren't dying like 80 year old diabetes patients. It'll take even more now, and I hope there are more. Boeing needs to be kicked in the bags.
I think the Birthday paradox is a great example of this.
It is a common fallacy for people to use "but it's possible" as an argument when it's about statistical events. A lot of things are possible, but few are probable.
The fact that you need to flip a thousand coins to get one that does what you want should tell you that the analogy doesn't work. Repeat your experiment with two coins.
Is it possible that both mirror the stock market? Sure. Is it PROBABLE? No way, Jose.
Great example
Thank you, I can't take credit for it. I got it out of the book Everybody Lies.
Crunching the numbers in your example, there's a 92% chance no coin does better than 55% correct. Randomness happens, but the law of large numbers usually refers to much larger numbers than 1000, and there aren't 1000 huge companies being investigated right now. I think suspicion is warranted here
You're saying my intentionally over simplified example to get a point across wasn't perfect? Amazing analysis....
Do you go by the nickname Captain Obvious with your friends?
The latest death was due to disease (flu and MSRA, leading to pneumonia and apparently a stroke), though, and his family confirmed as such. Many of these whistle-blowers are older experienced engineers who will be biased towards a higher death rate.
Still, fuck Boeing though. The first suicide remains suspect. Corporate scumbags.
The hitman just coughed on him. Devious.
Imagine if all it took was someone with a disease to stroll through congress one day and wipe out those past the best before date
the first suicide is not suspect, as far as I've heard the guy specifically said he is not suicidal JUST IN CASD something like this would happen, but that's either not true or that fact sadly did not gain attention
Many of these whistle-blowers are older experienced engineers who will be biased towards a higher death rate.
This, plus being highly involved in any court case is extremely stressful, which can take a toll on your mental and physical health.
Which is why I'm still kinda leaning towards an actual suicide with the first case. Being stressed, tired, having your life dictated around court schedules while you sleep in hotel rooms....... I could see that wearing someone down after a while.
I just don't think it makes real sense for a company to hire an actual hitman to operate in the US. Corporate murders happen, but usually overseas, and usually not when they've already testified.
Not saying it isn't a possibility, I just think it'd be cheaper to pay the guy off and have him sign an NDA.
A whistleblower is the type of person to refuse such an NDA, regardless of buy-off price. They would understand that if Boeing is willing to pay them 10 million or whatever, that the information they have, should they release it, prevent over 10 million dollars worth of damages to the public.
I just don't see someone like that committing suicide in a hotel parking lot out of state the day (two days?) before they are supposed to testify. That would go against everything they were doing up until that point.
They wouldn't just.. go home instead?
Corporate murders happen, but usually overseas, and usually not when they’ve already testified.
Do you have a source for that? I doubt there's graph of "workers murdered by companies, by country" or "murders, pre- vs post- whistleblowing" so it sounds like that might be at best an educated guess, or at worst pro-US bias.
The only stats I could find show that historically the US has had a terrible record for worker deaths during labor disputes.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worker_deaths_in_United_States_labor_disputes
I do think you're right, the chances of a hit going wrong are far too high.
Influenza B and MRSA? I’m not sure I’m convinced… but yeah. A bit different than the last death.
If he was hospitalized for the influenza, getting MRSA while there isn't all that surprising.
A viral infection causing a secondary bacterial infection is incredibly common. The phlegm and various secretions caused by the virus act as a breeding ground for the bacteria.
A person could easily be
poisoned, I mean infected with Flu and MRSA.the Panther is still on the loose
it could also be coincidence. humans are great at assuming patterns
I believe in coincidences. I don't trust coincidences.
Are you a humble tailor by any chance?
That is true, but let’s not forget big companies have been found guilty (rarely punished) of crimes with no respect for human lives or even rights whatsoever. It isn’t very smart to consider extermination a fact, however it is smart to assume it is a possibility, especially if you are an ethical Boeing employee.
Sample size could also be too low, no?
Possibly. We'll probably see eventually, either through a myriad of deaths, or a lawsuit with a lot of witnesses.
The second was MRSA/pneumonia. Take off the tinfoil hat.....for now anyways.
Fuck Boeing, but at least wait until another "suicide".
Also any 2 points make a straight line with an r^2 of 1.000000. You can't reliably determine anything with that.
n=2 is a terrible sample size
As I said above, any 2 points make a perfect line with an r^2 of 1.0000.
You need AT LEAST 3 points haha. Hopefully no one in stats sees this comment.
The guy already gave his statement at a deposition. Why on earth would they kill him after the fact?
Perhaps as a warning to other potential whistleblowers?
Maybe the compound infection took longer to take effect than they had planned.
To stop others having the same idea.
To give conspiracy theorists something to do.
It’s a message about the consequences of such a move
It could be random chance. It also could just as likely not be. The only correct answer is "we don't know".
Coincidence or not, it must've caused a chilling effect to other whistleblowers.
Boeing investors are probably thinking twice.
It's still easily possible that it's just a coincidence.
B-U-T
The fact that people are going to be very suspicious if whistleblowers die, even if it is purely accidental, is yet another reason not to do terrible corporate things. People will always wonder, and Boeing's management deserves the dark cloud that will now hang over their heads.
Remember, deaths come in threes! I wonder which Boeing whistleblower will be next.
That's some scary stuff
https://time.com/6973635/boeing-spirit-aerosystems-whistleblower-josh-dean-dead/
Let me guess, suicide by 17 gunshots to the back of his head? In his car in a hotel parking lot?
No, sudden illness I'm afraid. He arrived in hospital a few days ago for pneumonia like symptoms. poor bugger fell out of a window twice.
No way to tell what happened
Idk if we have any NYJ fans in here, but 2 years ago the coin meme was born. One fan flipped the same quarter every game to predict a win or a loss. It was correct for like the first 7 or so games of the season. It was a pretty wild ride predicting some unpredictable upsets for the jets for both wins and loses.
Could it just be that whistleblowing is intensely stressful and difficult (reporters, lawyers, harassment from former coworkers and company fanboys, difficulty finding new employment, etc.) I imagine all of that makes whistleblowers far more susceptible to disease and mental issues.
We need stronger whistleblower protection laws. Not just in case companies put out a hit, but also to help the whistleblowers endure and recover from doing the right thing…
Thank you!
They are definitely killing the witnesses.