1y ago

‘Wow!’: NBC’s Kristen Welker Shocked By New ‘Truly Stunning’ Biden-Trump Poll, Trump now ahead +5 in general matchup

www.yahoo.com

Yahoo

Biden’s approval rating was now 37% in favor and 60% disapproved, Kornacki noted.

It’s “the lowest approval rating since former President George W. Bush’s second term,” said Welker.

On voters’ confidence in handling the U.S. economy, Kornecki pointed to Trump’s 55% rating and Biden’s 33%.

Edit: here's the MSNBC clip with Kornacki https://twitter.com/MeetThePress/status/1754211558631084417

62 comments

This garbage article didn't even say who did the poll.
- [an NBC person] “Over time, we have been testing for five years now, going back to 2019—a Biden-Trump match-up. Remember 2019, 2020 Joe Biden led. He led big in every single one of our polls. For the first time in November, Donald Trump pulled ahead in our poll. And now, at five points, this is the biggest lead NBC has ever had in 16 polls for Donald Trump over Joe Biden.”
  It’s not the clearest, but the information is there.
- It's from NBC News...
  Poll: 20-point deficit on handling economy highlights Biden’s struggles against Trump. The president’s approval rating has fallen to a new low in NBC News polling, as Trump narrowly leads in a 2024 general election matchup.
  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-economy-presidential-race-rcna136834
  
  So instead of posting that, you posted this trash article? Why?
Dude all you do is shit on Biden, and you find all sorts of dubious sources to do so. Are you sure you are left leaning?
- I think it's fair to make people aware of what Democrats are up against here. There's an actual risk that Trump will return to the oval office if we don't show up to vote. And, unfortunately, Democrats don't show up to vote nearly as consistently as Republicans, so it's a real risk.
- The Huffington Post reporting on a NBC News poll is dubious now?
  https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/poll-biden-trump-economy-presidential-race-rcna136834
  
  Regardless you really have been on a Biden busting bender. Are you actually voting for Trump?
Reminder that national polls are useless because the United States doesn't have national elections. There are 50 individual state elections, plus Washington D.C., which establish 535 Electoral College votes, 270 to win.
States like Washington, Oregon, California are going to Biden, no contest.
States like Texas, Louisiana, Alabama are going to Trump, no contest.
The election will be decided by the toss-up states. Unless the poll is talking about one of these states it can be safely ignored.
Arizona: Trump +4
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/arizona/
Georgia: Trump +8
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/georgia/
Michigan: Trump +5 to +6
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/
Minnesota: Biden +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/minnesota/
Nevada: Trump +8 to +12
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/nevada/
New Mexico: Biden +8 but the most recent poll is from August which is effectively useless now.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/new-mexico/
Pennsylvania: Biden +1 to +5
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/pennsylvania/
Wisconsin: Tie to Trump +3
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/wisconsin/
Virginia: Biden +3, also an old poll, from December.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/virginia/
Taking that information and plugging it into an electoral college map:
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/electoral-college-map?game-id=2020-PG-no-allocations&game-view=map
Trump wins 293 to 245.
This is a change from the last times I posted this where Trump won, 312 to 226 and 278 to 260. Michigan is still polling for Trump instead of Biden, Pennsylvania has BARELY slipped back to Biden.
Michigan and Wisconsin BOTH are must wins for Biden. He must also hold Pennsylania. Those three would put him at 270 even. Failing there is what doomed Hillary in 2016.
Previously, Biden needed to pick up +10.
- Well, that’s disconcerting.
  
  Oh, yeah, Imma be watching it like a HAWK through the rest of the primaries and the conventions.
  I expect to do regular updates like this. It will be more of a nailbiter than anyone expects... Except for those of us in safe states.
  I live in Oregon and I already know it's going Biden. What worries me are these toss-up states.
The most idiotic part of this is the statement that it’s the lowest for an incumbent president since GWB. Guess what? Bush won reelection. The same thing is happening here. Biden is polling low, but will win. No one wants the dictator Trump in office.
- W was the start of the current polarization era with Obama being the catalyst for the tea party chuds to pour fuel on the fire. With the current polarization, you’ll never see a president have the same sort of general approval or popularity we used to see.
Weird how the Quinnipac poll from Friday said the opposite. It's almost like the Media wants a horse race & you're a sucker for it.
There is a reason these polls ask how you feel instead of who you plan on voting for.
Also, +5 points? Nationwide Dems have been beating polls at the ballot box by +9 points since Roe v. Wade was overturned.
Why use yahoo news?
It's all rehosted content, and for some reason freezes my phones browser like half the time.
I will not take any of these statistics until the real thing happens. They've done this bullshit back in 2020 and the result took most by surprise.
We've been ringing the alarm for awhile now, is it time to replace Biden to stop Trump?
- With whom? Harris and Newsom both poll losing to Trump. Harris is less popular than Biden, and Newsom isn't an incumbent. Biden is the candidate in 24 for the same reason he was in 20. He's the best candidate to beat Trump.
  The people "ringing the alarm" are out of touch socialists and anarchists, and more frequently, Republicans, foreign operatives, and grievancers who aren't voting anyway.
  I would have loved to see a Sanders presidency in my lifetime. Well, it didn't happen. Fortunately, Joe Biden has proven a remarkably effective president under phenomenally difficult circumstances, and his bad numbers are less a product of his administration and more the result of record voter unhappiness and the stranglehold of Trump on US politics. That's not a problem that's solved by pushing a new candidate on stage, because any other Democrat is going to have the same baggage or worse, assuming they're not outright unelectable.
  
  Hey, some of us out-of-touch socialists are voting for Biden anyway.
  
  Unfortunately, it looks like it's too late now and we might get another Trump presidency. Great job Dems! Infuriating! Before you say "are you voting for Biden?" I'm in California and will not. My vote doesn't matter here. I'll still be voting for all the other local elections though.
- I don't think most anybody is ecstatic with either. The fly in the ointment is that these two parties are not beholden to the electorate at all - they run exactly who they please, and their 'primaries' are ultimately an at-will dog and pony show.
- Biden will not be replaced, the only thing that can prevent the sitting President from running again is the President themselves having 2nd thoughts. See Johnson, 1968.
  As long as Biden wants to run, he's the nominee.
  That might change if he or Trump has a medical event that removes them, or if a conviction throws Trump in prison.
  We won't really know until the Republican convention in July. If nothing blocks Trump from the nomination, Biden is running.
  
  Can you imagine if Trump got put in jail and then Biden dropped dead of a heart attack. It would be an absolute clusterfuck of an election, and yet possibly better than what we're facing right now. Only downside is the potential for a Republican to possibly win in that case, but on the upside it would be hard for the Democrats to come up with a worse candidate than Biden.
- And yet no one can ever say who could/would replace him. Curious.
  
  Gavin Newsome is the obvious choice. But we'll have the same problem in '28. The DNC will want Harris in another "her turn" election and that would be a disaster. Nobody likes her, not even the people working with her.
- is it time to replace Biden
  And by what anti-democratic process are you suggesting this be done?
  
  Easy. He bows out and the DNC endorses Gretchen Whitmer.

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