2y ago

Open secret at climate talks: The top temperature goal is mostly gone

www.politico.com

Leading scientists worldwide delivered a striking dose of reality to the United Nations on Sunday: it’s “becoming inevitable” that countries will miss the ambitious target they set eight years ago for limiting the warming of the Earth.

The ominous estimate points to the growing likelihood that global warming will shoot past 1.5 degrees Celsius before the end of this century, inflicting what scientists describe as an overwhelming toll from intensifying storms, drought and heat on people and the economy. It also injects an urgent message into global climate talks in Dubai, where the debate over ramping down fossil fuels is set to flare over the next two weeks.

Surpassing the temperature threshold — even temporarily — would be a major blow to the international Paris climate agreement from 2015, which called for nations to keep global temperatures well within 2 degrees Celsius of their preindustrial levels, and within 1.5 degrees if at all possible. The findings come amid climate talks that for the first time are focused on taking stock of whether almost 200 nations are meeting that goal. Early indications offer a bleak picture.

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2y ago

Open secret at climate talks: The top temperature goal [1.5°C] is mostly gone

www.politico.com /news/2023/12/03/cop28-global-temperature-goal-00129766

48 comments

Looking forward to the water wars when we can all ask ourselves, was it worth it.
- It'll depend on who you ask: The obscenely wealthy will still say yes and the people they've been fucking over forever will probably disagree except perhaps about 39% of the normal population which is apparently too stupid to question or think critically about literally anything.
  
  Yew hav bin purminintly band frum c/Conservative
  
  39 percent? You're quite the optimist.
- We brought value to the shareholders!
  
  Amen.
- Exxon exec: Yes, yes it was worth it.
- Gonna be moving back to tribal society.
  It was a good run (for the ruling class), but the natives win in the end. That's what sustainability is all about.
- We should grow gills like Kevin Costner.
- The United States and China will be the biggest winners of climate change. The nation's around the equator will be the biggest losers.
  
  Don’t be so sure. We in the US are already struggling with refugees at our border; that problem will intensify exponentially as warming increases.
  
  Russia, Canada, and Alaska will be the biggest winners
  
  Me in the Netherlands: blub blub blub
- I think the microplastics will kill us off before then.
This year is currently at 1.4c; the last 3 months, generally the coolest months, have been near 1.7c.
- why are they the coolest months? northern hemisphere sure but aren't we overall closer to the sun planet wise. I would think northern hemisphere summer would be the coolest.
  
  The Southern hemisphere's temperatures in winter (jun-sep) aren't as cold as the northern hemisphere ones, so it makes sense the global average coldest temperatures are when the northern hemisphere is in winter .
  For reference, only the Southern tip of south America gets snow in winter in the souther hemisphere
  https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/92/Annual_Average_Temperature_Map.png
  
  The northern hemisphere has more land, so I would guess that affects how much sunlight gets absorbed
It’ll settle somewhere around 3° to 5°, because that’s the point where the global economy collapses irrecoverably. There’s no other way that we’re going to get out of this.
- I think somewhere well before +10 is catastrophic deoxygenation of the oceans, so that’s fun
- Also, at some point we've actually burnt all the oil. So there is an upper bound, unless it triggers a runaway.
  
  Well you can also make organic compounds for combustion from plants or directly from the constitutive monomers, so theoretically..... we can go on after oil!
I want there to be a list of all the broken promises nations have made throughout the years.
There should be a big fat percentage next to each promise that represents how often promises are kept.
"US pledges to reduce carbon emissions by X amount in 10 years! (US has a record of keeping only 5% of its long-term promises.)"
Kind of puts things into perspective for everyone.
- For one year, and there's a debate going on in climate science because of how much you can extrapolate for a single year. The +1.5C they're talking about would be sustained for the long run.
Surprising, since not a fucking thing has actually been done.
No, don't correct me. I'm insulting the measures you're describing. That was the point. We deserve to die, as a species, given the shameful so-called response we have made to this existential threat. If it had been aliens we would have rolled over like a bitch. We coulda done something, but it looks like we actually are just a bunch of monkey-ass retards with nothing better to do than pretend money is important. We need a jihad against all religions and a cultural purge of capitalism, and hey, we're gonna get it, pretty soon too, in the form of "too late you're fucked".

48 comments