Idk enough about this geopolitical situation to have a take but I REALLY don't want another conflict I have to hear liberal hot takes about. I may have to do a couple weeks of grass touching if things pop off.
Guayana Esequiba. Half of Guyana's land which has been in dispute since colonial times. Spain and England disputed it and it never got resolved so upon independence Venezuela and Guyana inherited the dispute.
Oil was found in the sea territory that would belong to whoever owns that land. Guyana has started selling drilling rights to western companies (like Exxon). Venezuela plans on holding a referendum to annex it on December 3rd. They don't control it so the only way to actually annex it would be to invade.
Ideal situation: Guyana cedes the land to Venezuela and then opens talks with Suriname to resolve the border dispute in the Tigri area. Also somehow France gets kicked out of South America.