7d ago

Camp Mystic’s leader got a ‘life threatening’ flood alert. They evacuated an hour later.

www.washingtonpost.com /nation/interactive/2025/camp-mystic-alerts-texas-floods/

Much of what made the camp special also put it at heightened risk as the river rose to record levels, a Post investigation found.

The thing about flash floods is you need to move before the flood reaches you. Being aware of it doesn't do much good if you don't.

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Much of the camp was built in a high risk flood zone, a zone where building is strictly illegal in many states with responsible safety measures. Since Texas doesn’t give a shit about human life, they not only allow building in dangerous flood zones, but they clearly don’t have the infrastructure to make it even remotely safe.
The camp never should have been built there. This tragedy is exactly why planning for future risk when building something (especially something for kids, but that’s pretty much irrelevant) is not optional.
- I'm published in watershed analysis - specifically stormwater discharge. I work in a municipal development office in Texas and specialize in drainage plans.
  That's simply not accurate.
  You generally can't build in the 100-year floodplain. What happened here, from a drainage engineering standpoint, is a combination of 3 factors:
  Many of the buildings in question were built prior to the flood plain being defined in that location, and existing non-conforming structures are generally allowed to remain.
  New buildings were built a few years back, but out of the 100-year floodplain. Part of that was a floodplain map revision. These can be obtained through FEMA if an engineer provides an analysis showing either that mitigation techniques will change the floodplain area or that the flood maps are incorrect. Many flood plain maps are decades old, and the actual flood areas are different for a variety of reasons.
  Unfortunately, there are also engineers who will stamp whatever you put in front of them if you pay them, and there are in fact engineers who specialize in saying "yes" and providing bad analysis to get around drainage, detention, and floodplain requirements. Lots of them are foreign-based, which is why most Texas jurisdictions have started requiring engineers licensed in Texas so we can go after their credentials when their bad engineering leads to failure. The reality is FEMA doesn't have the resources to double-check the analysis of every project, and they must rely on the engineer's stamp as evidence that best practices have been used.
  This wasn't a 100-yr flood event. If all the cabins had been located outside of the 100-yr it likely wouldn't have changed anything.
  
  This is super helpful, thanks for the explanation.
  
  Is there any sort of regularly scheduled review to try and catch construction projects that may now be in floodplains that weren't designated as such when constructed?
- Yes, I am sorry but as someone who knows geomorphology I struggle to see this as manslaughter and not as outright mass murder caused by a passion of extreme willful ignorance.
  
  Many people need to go to jail for a long time because of it. Most likely, they will get cabinet positions or something.
  
  Agreed.
- I can see how the conversation could go, outside of Texas
  It’s seasonal use. It’s not like it’s full time occupation. It’s a camp, most of the time they’re not going to be in the buildings. Etc.
  It’s a weak argument and I think that places like that need more code than less (think of fires, etc.). There’s ways to make rustic, summer camp buildings fun and safe, but a quick glance at the safety precautions taken to move children to school in the USA is sufficient to understand the risk assessment process. If it hurts kids occasionally, it’s probably fine. Just as long as shareholders aren’t hurt
- Would it have been buildable for a camp if they’d constructed some sorts of shelters, or are the forces involved in these floods so large not even that is doable?
  I’m asking because a camp seems low density, with temporary structures, where dealing with some level of flooding isn’t going to ruin things like a regular house getting flooded.
  But obviously safety needs to be critically considered, hence the question
  
  Who are you who is so wise in the world of pancakes?
I live how more and more news outlets are blaming the victims and the camp instead of trump firing a ton of people which directly caused all the delays
- I saw a post that the owners of the camp removed it from flood zone maps, so they didn’t have to pay extra flood insurance. Due to this they didn’t receive adequate warning.
  If this is true then how does that not make the camp owners at least somewhat at fault?
  This doesn’t absolve trump either, more than one party can be at fault.
  
  I wouldn't be surprised if that was some sort of loophole created by deregulation though. They are still horrible too for taking advantage of it if that is the case.
  
  Don't absolve them at all. Also doesn't absolve trump or noem
It's almost like they get the 'flood' part, but not so much the 'flash'
- And if you haven't seen videos of flash flood events, many people don't understand how quickly these can become an imminent threat. We can be talking about a matter of just a few minutes.
  
  I watched a video of this flood and was floored. It was somehow scarier than the footage of the streets in Japan in 2011.
  I guess maybe because of how "calm" it was. It wasn't a thrashing wall of ocean waves bouncing between buildings, the river just rose and rose until it poured onto the overpass
  
  Video if others are looking for it.
- "This flood's not that bright."
Lawsuit incoming. Willful ignorance killing little white Christian kids. The lawyers are going to have a field day.
- Maybe we could word the laws that get written about it a little vague so they don't ONLY protect little white Christian children.
  Who am I kidding? This is Texas.
People are heuristic - we predict the future from our past experiences. They have been on the river for 40 years and had a lot of experience telling them that "this will be like other times."
Maybe there was even a time where it was far less than what NOAA predicted.
This is why scientific literacy and critical thinking skills are important. One of the deadliest phrases is "in my experience".
Dick Eastland died trying to rescue some of the youngest girls.
Imagine realizing you made the wrong call by hearing the screams of children.
- Imagine realizing you made the wrong call by hearing the screams of children.
  Hard disagree about that being the wrong call, even though it killed him.
  
  I meant the "waiting too late to start evacuating children" being the wrong call.

32 comments