Will BEV adoptions lead to more ICE pickups?
Will BEV adoptions lead to more ICE pickups?
In the US a decade or two ago, we enacted regulations to increase the efficiency of passenger vehicles. However larger vehicles typically needed for commercial and farming uses were exempt. Now we see the results of that as reverse incentive, where trucks became more common, even for simple commuting
Will the same happen with BEVs, a reverse incentive that increases the use of trucks?
I just read an opinion piece (lost just as quickly, sorry) that discussed issues with sales of EV pickups at GM and Ford. They made a compelling argument that EVs still have weaknesses as work trucks and point to the success of Rivian as a recreational truck. Certainly arguments against EV pickups do center on those weaknesses, even for scenarios where it wouldn’t apply (how many truck owners actually tow regularly?). So, as BEVs rapidly take over the car and crossover markets, and the holdouts have fewer choices of ICE cars, will they increasingly turn to trucks?
I think it's reasonable to assume that work trucks will be the last holdout for ICE vehicles. I don't think that means we'll see MORE trucks on the road. By the time trucks are the only ICE option left, charging infrastructure will be at a point where range anxiety will be a thing of the past.
Also, I think you're ignoring the fact that PHEV's are a thing and I expect them to become more popular as BEV popularity rises. They will bridge the gap for people who like the idea of BEV but still need the range or convenience of ICE occasionally. Right now PHEV's are kind of expensive (just like BEV's) but that will change right along with BEV pricing.
Really, it seems like fleet work trucks will go battery electric sooner than the luxury/vanity and redneck or towing crowd.
The cost savings for a work pickup for a fleet are considerable, as are the maintenance costs. Fleet buyers can immortize the cost of the investment in a more rational accounting manner, unlike your typical consumer. Fleet buyers also have capital that they can invest up front.
Long distance towing is a tough nut to crack, but I don't think that many people actually too that long of a distance with pickup trucks. They exist, but are much smaller section of the overall truck market.
I'm just hoping that electric drivetrains will one day enable smaller pickup trucks again as they won't have to deal with the insane CAFE mpg requirements.
Now we see the results of that as reverse incentive, where trucks became more common, even for simple commuting
I don't actually think this is the conclusion you can draw from this at all. Larger vehicles have been a cultural movement in the US, spurred on by the idiotic assumption that you're safer in a crash when you're in a large vehicle. This is why SUVs have supplanted the station wagon, and behemoth pickups have supplanted reasonable sized ones.
And no, BEVs won't cause more ICE trucks. We have BEV trucks.
More specifically that was the marketing push by automakers due to what OP mentioned about regulations.
That isn't why the marketing push happened, OP is confusing correlation and causation.
If I had to take a guess at the main weaknesses of electric work truck, it’s probably charge time and the fact that range decreases with more load on the truck.
Hydrogen vehicles will probably fill this niche. It’s got all the environmental advantages as a traditional EV. However, its got the same experience of filling up at a gas station instead of charging.
Biggest issue for adoption would be widespread implementation of a hydrogen refuel network.
Hydrogen cars isn't a new technology and there has been no push toward mass adoption yet. What changed that makes you think hydrogen will suddenly become a thing worth investing in?
Nothing has changed. Some people just have difficulty letting go off their delusions.
I partly agree with the person, in that there are some tasks that batteries will just not scale to. We will need hydrogen infrastructure, just not for passenger vehicles. It remains to be seen where that line is.
If you use a pickup for true truck activities, such as towing, I can see the argument that it drastically cuts the range of today’s BEV pickups. However I’d argue it’s still fine for a good portion of those and batteries will improve much faster than we could ever build on it hydrogen infrastructure.
Imagine if the Toyota announcement is true. We could be just 3 years away from solid state batteries that could charge in minutes. Then the towing argument against BEV pickups goes away
Load in the truck has a minimal impact on range. And charge time for BEV trucks is the same as charge time for other BEVs. Most people using one for work would charge it overnight anyway so the charge time doesn't matter.
It’s got all the environmental advantages as a traditional EV.
Except for the production of the hydrogen, which is extremely energy inefficient, or is a byproduct of industrial processes that also produce greenhouse gasses.
Op, there have been some developments in the heavy work truck department:
https://www.motortrend.com/news/magna-etelligent-force-ev-powertrain-heavy-duty-truck-test/