Fellow home owners, are you ready for the housing market to crash?
Fellow home owners, are you ready for the housing market to crash?
I know I'm supposed to want it to keep going up as a wealth generator or whatever.
But like... I wouldn't be able to afford the monthly payments if I bought my house right now and it's scary. Also none of my friends are buying homes, none of them are even renting full places. Just like renting rooms.
So what are your feelings home owners of lemmy?
I hate that we lost sight of what wealth really is and replaced it with the idea of profit. I bought my house to provide myself with financial security, not profit.
My monthly "rent" (mortgage payment) is locked in for the next 25 years and will not go up. At the end of those 25 years when I'm ready to retire, I'll have housing with only taxes and insurance payments. THAT is wealth. THAT is what home ownership is meant to be. If housing prices fall, it won't change my life a bit.
Meh I don't care. We bought a couple years ago when rates were super lower but prices were high. Our mortgage is less than rent would be and we're not going anywhere for a long time. I think of the house as a place to live, not an investment really. Like a car. It serves a purpose and I'll use it until I can't anymore.
You point out the Catch-22 that a lot of people miss on this stuff. They get so fixated on increasing their property values because they want to screw someone over when they finally sell their house....not stopping to think that the same thing is about to happen to them when they go to buy one. Not to mention, higher property values means higher property taxes (in some places, anyway).
Non-home owner of Lemmy here. I want you all to know that my fondest wish to see the housing market completely implode is strictly not personal.
My only chance to buy a house slipped away a few years ago. House prices have gone up by 50% or more in some locations, and interest rates have more than doubled. What was previously affordable is now completely outside my means to pay for each month.
My last hope now is for a 2008 repeat so I might be able to snag something up for what it's actually worth. I certainly can't count on the state or the government to take the housing crisis seriously enough to have them actually build more affordable housing for people to buy and drive the asking prices lower.
i bought my house at the top (two years ago) and no regrets. less about it being an investment and more about having a stable place to call my own that gives me safety and not at the whims of a landlord. i’d quite like it if house prices became more affordable for everyone, the counter intuitive thing to say. 🤷♂️ i was supposed to become a nimby and vote conservative but now i’m more left wing than ever.
Yes, and it will cost me some money as I'm getting ready to put mine on the market in the coming months.
But I don't give a shit, the current conditions are unsustainable and I have great empathy for the generations behind me that are excluded from what is a fucking FOUNDATION of getting a stable life going. The shit has to come tumbling down at some point, otherwise our social structure will continue to degrade. The people who will bitch and moan about it are so out of touch they should be ignored anyway. Bring on the crash.
The housing market isn't going to crash. We're at the highest mortgage rates in 23 years and it's STILL a sellers' market. The fact is, inventory being incredibly low + home buying being desirable for many == no reason for a crash. Even the Great Recession only resulted in a temporary price dip.
I know a lot of millennials and zoomers would LIKE for there to be a crash because they think it would let them afford a home. This is a false belief, though: if there were a major crash, it would likely be accompanied by a recession in the labor market too, so there goes your ability to pay for the house.
Also, it's not black and white. If house prices and interest rates cooled off, it would let me (a homeowner) refinance my mortgage.
Morever, there are benefits to home ownership outside of equity / profiting off a sale:
- Tax benefits (I can deduct my mortgage interest and property taxes; can't do that with a rental)
- Do what I want with my house -- customize, upgrade, etc.
- No landlord to tell me what I can or can't do, or kick me out
- For complicated reasons, there aren't many detached house rentals in my area, so owning a house means no loud, obnoxious apartment living -- this is the BIG one for me
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/housing-market-crash-experts-191734802.html---
I mean things can get way worse. Look at Canada and Australia. No sign of a crash in either yet, prices just keep climbing. Homeless encampments and the like were alien to us up until recently. The median Aussie household income is ~$65,000. Homes start at about $600,000 and at that price a lot of them are teardowns, you'd be spending at least $200,000 in repairs.
Banks want 20% down.
It is scary, definitely.
I rent a nice house, I'm lucky. I've also not had a holiday in over a decade...
Permanently Deleted
Housing as a wealth generator is a bit of a lie. Prices going up only benefit people or corporations who own multiple homes or those who rent out their homes, and the few people downsizing for retirement by selling their 2500+ sq ft for a small apartment somewhere.
For the regular Joe you always need somewhere to live, so it doesn't matter if your houses is $100k or $1 million, that money is always going to be tied up in the house and not be spendable.
If anything the prices being high is worse for regular home owners because you're going to be paying thousands more in interest on the mortgage that goes straight to the banks.
Non-home owner, currently I could live a hundred lives and never own a home. It must crash, and it must become regulated to prevent this from occurring.
I have no issues with that. I'm not living here to make a fortune on speculation. I am living here because it is my home, and I leave selling this to our kids once we are dead, hopefully many decades in the future.
As a homeowner, there is nothing to be ready for. Nothing has value unless you're trying to buy or sell it and I'm doing neither in the near/medium future regardless of the price of my home. I bought before prices went stupid so I feel like it is unlikely any crash will do the value to below what I paid.
My condo is paid in full. I want the market to sink like a stone.
This current housing market has everyone trapped. I cannot sell and upgrade because I'm not going to pay 7% interest on the part I don't have in my bank account.
If the market crashes hard enough these huge corporations that have been sucking up all the single family homes will probably start unloading them at lower and lower prices to pay their creditors. It could be good for people who want to buy. Couple that with the coming crash of corporate office space and it could be quite an interesting time.
The real truck is going to be coming up with legal/constitutional bans on corporate ownership of single family houses.
I don't really know what people are expecting to happen?
It's true that the housing market does not represent real value of the asset at all. You pay double or triple 'real' value, and it seems that OP is suggesting a market correction is due.
Whilst that may be true in some areas that are actively collapsing with major population drain due to crime, lack of work etc (I'm certainly not familiar with the USA or its cities) - overall the supply of houses is still vastly outstripped by the demand of people that would like to own one. The population continues to grow via immigration and births to prop up the never ending shell game of annual GDP growth.
Whilst there may be regional blips, unless there are massive social housing programs that flood the market with cheap, desirable dwellings then I'm not sure why anyone would expect the housing market to crash. Until the shell game and the table they play on is flipped and burned, the housing market will not crash. It's the most basic supply/demand equation out there.
For me personally, my wife and I are probably going to stay in this house until it's time for the old folks home so it's just numbers that'll never actually mean anything. If it crashes by half or more I'll actually get a reduction to my property tax.
Let it crash, this is unsustainable. Having a secure, long-term roof over your head shouldn't be so fucking hard.
I 100% want a market crash. When I was fresh out of college and checking out possible houses, even in more rural areas, it just never seemed like I'd be able to own a home. It's so much worse now than when I graduated. Literally cannot see a future where I own a home unless I inherit from my parents.
There will absolutely be a population crash in the US & other countries suffering from the housing crisis, nobody will feel like they can raise a family. None of my co-workers or friends foresee ever starting one if they can't get a house.
Was watching a video on YouTube, some hyperactive landlord "influencer" type was bitching how new homes were getting built in his town. Went on and on about how it's bad for everyone if more homes get built and if prices went down. Of course, everyone was tearing him apart in the comments.
We need more homes, we need lower prices, unsure if it'll happen though.
Line goes up? My housing payment stays the same. Line goes down? My housing payment stays the same. I was lucky inasmuch as I borrowed back when banks were practically paying us to take out loans, so if I ever have to refi I'm gonna eat shit, but I also bought what I needed instead of what I could afford and I put more than my mortgage payment into savings every month so shit is gonna have to go real bad before I'd ever be forced to refi. This is my place to live and buying it wasn't so that I could leverage it to get into the aristocrat class. I bought it to protect myself from those same aristocrats who would raise my rent every year until I'm paying twice as much as I am now for half as much house to actually live in.
The only real bummer about a housing market crash is that it will accelerate us into being a renter society overall. A few people might claw their way out, but if prices dropped by half tomorrow all that would mean is the predatory megalandlords can take twice as many houses off the market with the same money.
(German)Homeowner and (small time) landlord here: Yes. And I look forward to it. We bought an old house (think 1940ies) a while back and did renovate it. While it was expensive the absurd thing wasn't actually the price but the price for craftsman and material. The former already crashed heavily here (sadly not for the ones I need).
I rent out three apartments in the same house I live in. We have an average rent index here and I stick to it (even though I could easily get more as we don't include extras in our calculations that we normally could add to get more rent - and with that market we easily could get more.
The way we financed the house is based on the premise that the market will crash - it is not a regular investment in the sense that we will come out with a net positive. It is a way to make sure that we don't need to rent anymore (which is hell at times) and that we do have a place where we must not worry about rent when we are old. If the kids do inherit something,nice,but not a must.
We initially didn't even want something to rent out, but the perfect house was one with more than one apartment. So we said why not.
So why do I want the market to crash? Renting is absurd these days. Craftsman prices are insane. Both of these problems can only be solved once the market has crashed - which means either we have much less people (likely to happen,but late) or first pick up building subsidized apartments on a much larger scale (which makes the later problem much bigger). But if we don't do something soon it will make basic services (nursing is a good example) even unobtainable as people in these jobs won't be able to afford their rent in the more expensive regions. This will affect everyone.
I already have a home. I don't need 20 of them. I'm not going to get mad about something that benefits the majority of the control. It just sucks because a market crash just means that people who already have multiple homes are going to be able to buy even more.
Completely ready. Neither my loan not my mortgage will change and I'm never selling.
My grandparents bought their house back in the 1950s for the equivalent of 35,000 dollars adjusted for inflation and now that house is worth over half a million. The house I live in now was bought for around 150k back in the early 2,000s and it too would sell for about half a million. And of course, last year housing prices increased by 30% in one year. There is no way in hell this is sustainable. It is not a question of if the housing market collapses but when and it will thoroughly deserve it.
Usually things crash when enough people capitulate and think it won't crash. Gotta maximize the pain so that those with money can swoop in and gobble up all the assets. Most likely the crash will be combined with mass unemployment so that even people who have bought into a home risk losing it by not being able to make mortgage payments.
I mean, a crash is usually used and abused by the big players to gobble stuff up if they survived and didn't go bankrupt (hell even if they do another whale usually swallows them) yet I don't see another way for most people to afford a home. But then again, the area I'm in isn't crashing even if the rest of the country does. If it resulted in lower rates would love to refinance tho, 5% isn't great.
Burn it all down and end secondary real estate market. The housings price problem started with that.
Can't wait. If it could happen in isolation and not involve a lot of people losing their jobs, I would love to see prices come down. No downside for homeowners really, the house is the same house independent of market value but taxes will decrease so monthly cost will decrease.
I'm old and know prices don't go up forever. As soon as those "we will buy your house" signs and phone calls start, it's near the end.
Not a fellow home owner, in my early 20s and debt free. I feel soo bad for people who sign the dotted line on 400k mortgage and agree to decades of slavery to the economy just to have a poorly made suburbanite 2 story 3 bedroom. My parents tell me its not worth it, and I believe them. The only option for my generation that doesn't involve half a lifetime of mortgage slavery is to either buy land somewhere extremely rural and build atop or get used to the idea vanlife/nomadic living. I refuse to get into debt, period. Would rather live out of my van and pay myself rent while working and save up the money for a little plot of land in the mountains. My sympathies to anyone who goes the 'normal' path and eats 500k in debt in this day and age.
I paid 91k in 2017. Zillow says my place is worth 209k just six years later. I'm more than prepared for it to tank but it won't go lower than I paid.
Wouldn't mind some new neighbors, not planning on selling, not going to contribute to the landlord crisis, I say let it burn.
My house is like 25% paid off, I don't care if it loses 90% of it's "value" I'll keep paying the bills. Rather everyone have affordable housing than some extra cash in my bank account.
Generally speaking: There won't be a crash.
The reason everything went to shit in the 00s (I think? Time has no meaning) is because of banks and predatory lending. We are increasingly seeing that with the current interest rates and house prices but there is a big difference.
When the market crashed then? The banks were stuck with a shit ton of houses nobody wanted.
Now? Plenty of people have been saving up and will gladly buy the houses at a slight discount. And real estate firms and increasingly corporate hellscapes will buy them at slightly lower discounts.
That is more or less what we saw over the few years of "the good old days". House prices kept exploding and pricing more and more people out. But those people continued to save and would then start trying to buy a smaller house or take advantage of a better interest rate and so forth.
As for those interest rates:
Yeah, it is fucking insane right now and I am REAL glad I got in while the getting was good. And this is a big issue in me waiting to get an EV.
But... the real insanity was the past few years. Check any website that tracks rates over time. The late 10s and early 20s were an anomaly. The current rates are a lot closer to the historic rates.
Which just gets back to pricing and... again, companies and people with inheritances will keep paying that.
I'm trying to fix up a few things then get it re-appraised so I can get PMI taken off my mortgage. After that I don't really care, I plan to live here for awhile so if the value goes down in the short term I'm not too bothered.
I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for any sort of epic crash.
I expect that home ownership is going to become solely for the upper-middle class and up, and that home prices won't make any serious downward movement.
I expect the housing crisis will eventually start to ease as areas become more accepting of high-density housing development, and that will become the sole province of people with finances beneath the home ownership class.
Essentially, the establishment of a much more distinct and explicit two-tier system. Prices in one will have minimal impact on the other, much like how any swing in prices for small passenger boats has no impact on the price of yachts.
I'll believe it when I see it. I think there's low inventory.
It often feels like it doesn't even matter to me. I'm never going to be in a position to get out of massive debt and afford a decent home either way.
Not worried in the least, house is < 10 yo and don’t plan on moving anytime soon. I also think my houses “value” is over inflated anyways.
Now if I bought in the last 3 years? Yea I might be sweating a little bit about being under water, depending on price and location.
US person here
I was lucky to be in a position to buy shortly after the 2008 crash, so another crash would erase a good chunk of equity (but I see most of it as fantasy equity anyway) but otherwise I'll be fine. I was in DevOps/SysOps for a real estate tech company at that time (and until recently) so I got to see the weird market moves in real time.
Nationwide we've already seen about a 4% drop from the end of the 2022 sales season (Memorial Day - Labor Day) to the end of the 2023 season. That decrease is actually as bad the height of the 2008 crisis but the drops were most felt in the most overpriced markets. This allowed the rest of the nation buffer against it so it's not having a big effect on main economy metrics (like the consumer confidence index).
Basically the bubble deflated considerably without popping, which is overall a guard against a (really bad) crash. Of course 1/3rd of China's economy is their housing market and it's on the verge of collapse... I don't know what that will do to the US but it won't be good.
I'm not selling in the foreseeable futher, so i care little.
I am ready, my capital willing and able.
(I will be doing my best to make the housing available to who needs it, fuck profit for profits sake)
I'm not planning on moving so it doesn't really matter what my house is worth. It was relatively cheap to begin with; 105k€. My monthly payment for the mortage is 520€ while the rent my friends are paying is usually 700€/month or more. That would cover my water and electricity bill aswell and I'd still have money left over.
Home owner, I started buying back in 2007. Been through one crash, and if another crash makes it so I can move again, fuck it. Let the whole thing just burn.
I never counted on equity, and the system was fucked from the start. At least this way I wouldn't feel trapped.
In the US, at least, the last housing market crash was because people couldn't afford their homes. Since most homeowners are now on fixed rates and most people's incomes are significantly up since they purchased, there probably won't be a housing market crash like last one. Even with losing a job, a lot of these people could get a significantly less paying job and still be relatively okay compared to their Great Recession compatriots. With investors, most aren't in real estate for the short term. A lot sit on housing they don't rent or lease, even in a seller/landlords market. So you're left with poor investors and the short term housing investors, who can probably cause a collapse by themselves, but in an increasingly wealthy domestic and international market base, those will most likely be bought up before a significant dent in the housing market happens.
However, the federal government needs to increase housing supply and public transportation infrastructure by an obscene amount very soon, unless it wants a major economic and societal collapse in the coming decades that it may not be able to pull itself out of. A housing market collapse like 2008 should be the least of their worries.
I'm just trying to build wealth and just entered the market, so I'm not too excited for me, but it needs to happen. It's a basic necessity that the majority of people can't afford, how is that okay? I will lose a bunch if the market crashes and probably never be able to achieve my goals, but its not very feasible right now anyway. I wanted a hobby farm, thats never going to happen regardless. Something has to change.
I dont want to pay more in property taxes.
The house I live in is paid off and it’s supposed to be our forever home, so market value doesn’t matter much. For my two apartments I rent out it is more relevant. On those I have a fixed interest for another 5+ years still ahead of me. After that I‘m hoping that I’ll still be able to afford the higher interest rates on the by then lower balance.
I play around with mortgage calculators every so often and look at houses in my area. One of them at current rates would have someone paying well over $10k per month at 20% down, not including utilities, food, water, gas, etc. (it is a 1.4 million home). My wife and I were speculating on the type of person who could even afford that, if you follow the rule of don't spend more than 50% of your monthly on rent.
Meh fuck it. Everything else depreciates so I don’t see why a house should be any different.
I got mine paid off this year, was paying extra every month.
this was supposed to be a starter home and I always wanted to buy another house eventually that I seemingly cannot do anymore.I bought this year in the US w/ my partner. Thanks to my credit union, got a rate about 1% lower than average at the time. Mortgage payment is significantly less than rent and most importantly: it's going to be way, way, WAY less than rent in 10-15 years. Sure, we'll have other associated home ownership costs, etc etc, but it's worth it to us. Also, honestly, we LOVE this house. Took our time to find the right place and it has paid off, much happier here than any of the places we rented.
Bought my house in 2019, and it's apparently worth 30% more than what I paid for it if my rates bill (local property taxes for the US people) is anything to go by.
Problem is, it's all paper gains. The only way I see any of that money is by selling my house - which I kinda need in order to live in - and buying something else that has also gone up by 30%, so I'm net-even, less increased property taxes which I directly benefit from via improved infrastructure.
Now if I was a blood sucking parasite and bought a second house as a rental property by using my increased capital to muscle out first home buyers with less capital, then the gains might be enough to allow me to sleep at night under the weight of my own crushing dread at the person I had become. Maybe.
I don't really care if it crashes, but it would be a great time to buy a cheap second house. Right now I live in a cottage that is 500sf
I'm torn, I really want to move but don't want to play the current interest rates. I bought high but have that great interest rate. I'm also looking to move again since my job is not fully remote and my girlfriend hates my house.
Bring on to crash!
The only way this benefits a home owner is if they can live somewhere else for cheap or free. If you can't do that selling is pointless.
Once things come down then I could potentially afford a second home on my income. Additionally people less financially fortunate can afford the first house (or at least see their ridiculous rent prices drop).
It will be unfortunate for people who bought at an inflated rate so naturally those people won't be so crash happy but that's just the nature of it. If you are someone in such a situation then selling now and paying high rent elsewhere may be a wise decision. Not that prediciting a crash is a simple task.
I don't want either a crash or stability. I just want a nice house.
I bought my 3br house in Florida in 2016. Mortgage is only $750/month between me and my gf. Never felt better!
Houses are not wealth generating. They are a long term investment. So long that the value of the dollar declines so much that it makes you think that your wealth has increased. At best, buying a house is a hedge against inflation.
Buy a house when you feel like its a good decision for you and your family. Until that day just save your money and stack sats.
If you couldn't afford monthly payments it's probably due to current interest rates rather than prices.
Already happened here, 30% wiped off house values since the end of 2021 and still falling, interest rates still going up. Incompetent goverment has crashed the economy hard. Fortunately we're mortgage free, and getting renovations done while the economy is down
I'm really surprised to see all these bitter comments. Downvote me all you want, but I think people hate the housing market because of a lack of knowledge.
I did my homework, worked my ass off and in a few months I will be buying two houses. One to live in and the other as an investment. And the best part is that the first one will be paid off in 5 years (thanks to publicly available banking tools). The investment property will not be paid off until the end of the mortgage. Why? Because it will give me huge tax deductions (again - great banking tools). After a few years I will be able to buy another investment property which will give me even more tax deductions. And so on and so forth.
So no, I don't want the housing market to crash.
Sid doesn't know.
Sid doesn't care