Can we trust the polls this year?
Can we trust the polls this year?
After polling misses in 2016 and 2020, how should we feel about 2024? The case for and against this year’s polls.
Nope. They haven't been useful since 2012, and every political analyst says so.
What IS reliable is the returns on ballots of inclusion for abortion care in every state that has had it so far. It's very clear that the turnout for pro-choice is magnitudes higher than polls, and we can expect the same for November.
But still, GO VOTE.
Republican women are dumb as shit, that's not enough. That dropped literally right before midterms and they still got Congress seats.
Generally speaking, I would not look to republicans for help in winning this election. The question is whether you can find a way to increase turn out.
The democrats have been very bad at explaining why people should turn up to vote in the mid terms if they want to keep abortion legal. In a presidential year, and when there’s an abortion access measure on the ballot, the argument it’s easier to make.
TLDR: GOTV for mid terms sucks eggs.
Polls mean nothing. Voting means everything.
No. Vote.
Can the silent majority ever shut the fuck up?
Since the race is pretty much a complete tossup according to the polls, there isn’t much to trust.
The polls are shrugging and going “I don’t know man, you tell me”.
“People can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. 14 percent of all people know that.”
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https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/370649/trust-polls-2016-2020-election-2024-pollster-polling-miss