I think at RB/VCARB Max, Yuki and Liam are pretty much set. They just prolonged Yukis contract, they want to keep Max and they want Liam in. Checo and Danny are the question marks.
Regarding Bottas, teams probably are wary of him given his performance next to Zhou. And he has been in F1 for over ten years, the only ones still here from his debut season are Alonso, Hamilton, Hulk โ and Checo & Danny who are on the verge of exit themselves.
Presumably all of them will lose their seats. I think Ric lost his opportunity when Ref Bull(for whatever reason) decided to stick with Checo during the summer break.
Sergio's form during the back half of the season will determine if he stays next year. If he does, it'll be Lawson next to Yuki. If not, my guess is Lawson in the RBR and Hadjar comes in for VCARB.
Yes, he has no contract yet as far as we know. And Lawson will get a seat. So Lawson, Verstappen und Tsunoda will most likely be 3 of 4 Red Bull drivers.