I know we generally kind of reject electoralism here but how do yall see 2024 going?
I know we generally kind of reject electoralism here but how do yall see 2024 going?
Some of trumps recent remarks are keeping me up at night again. The Israel situation was keeping me up a l little bit ago and now it's this dip shit again and his psychopath cronies
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the swing states are literally the only part that matters, ignore popular vote polling.
I'll be shocked if he keeps MI because Palestine
Georgia...the less said about how rabid the local GOP is the better. I'm convinced they'll pull something absurd to try and "stop the second steal" and end up in court again.
NC is probably safe Biden.
The split votes states are probably not going to change much.
Minnesota shouldn't be considered a swing state imo, but people keep it on the list for some reason.
Nevada, also under the I don't understand this state category.
Pennsylvania, I see Trump winning here. Biden is especially hurt by RFK if he actually ends up on the ballot here (no clue why)
Wisconsin seems increasingly down with the local GOP's shit.
I think there will be 6 close races. WI, MI and PA in the North and AZ, NM and GA in the South. A straight north-south split would leave Trump a few points shy of 270, he'll need at least one of those northern states to win. It will be very close and I agree that Pennsylvania or Michigan goes to Trump since democrats can't do electoral math. If the Dems lose both while taking the Southern swing states the two could tie at 269 which is the funniest outcome.
Agreed on the funniest outcome, but on the provision there are multiple faithless electors that cancel each other out
Why do you think NM? I have not seen a lot of discussion about them and don't understand the SW parts of the country in general. Arizona seems like its been getting even crazier...
I know nothing about the Southwest, I've lived around the Great lakes. I do think we'll see voting apathy amongst the under 40 crowd on the national scale and that could jeopardize the southern states. Biden did win NM by 10 points, so he'll probably get a close win. It also nets the fewest electoral votes of the six I mentioned so the GOP may not target it as much.
Wisconsin is absolutely sick of the GOP and hasn't voted for a Republican in a statewide election since Trump won, except for fuckin Ron Johnson for some reason. The GOP has a crazy advantage where they can lose the popular vote and get close to a supermajority in the state legislature, but since you can't gerrymander the vote for president I'd say it will probably go Biden, especially since there aren't many Muslim voters and a lot of the decisive voters that let Trump win had been Obama voters, so it was probably more of an anti-Hillary vote in 2016 than outright support for trumpism. That said, the 35% of people who are still enthusiastic Trump fans are incredibly motivated and increasingly willing to work with straight up Nazis