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The Egyptian Defence Ministry has reportedly placed its first ever order for Chinese fourth generation fighters, with an unspecified number of J-10C fighters reported to have been ordered on August 19. This development comes as Cairo has continued to strengthen strategic and economic ties with Beijing, and follows its admission to the Chinese-led BRICS bloc earlier this year. The acquisition makes Egypt the second client for the J-10C after Pakistan, although unconfirmed reports indicate that neighbouring Sudan had reached an agreement on acquisitions before the outbreak of an insurgency in the country in April 2024 delayed talks for a purchase. The fighters are reportedly intended to replace Egypt’s ageing F-16 Fighting Falcons as these begin to be phased out of service. The acquisition has been speculated to be intended as an alternative to American proposals that Egypt acquire the F-16V upgrade package to modernise its F-16s, with the J-10C considered to have a superior combat capability to this enhanced F-16 model while coming at a similar cost to the package. Other than three squadrons of MiG 29M fighters ordered from Russia in 2015, all of Egypt’s fourth generation fighters are of Western origin, with the J-10C acquisition seen as a potential turning point for the country’s fleet in line with prevailing political trends.

Reports of orders for the J-10C have emerged as Egyptian officials have expressed growing concern with the ongoing Western-backed Israeli war effort in the Gaza Strip, with Cairo being particularly concerned that the Israeli operation is intended to push the Gazan population onto Egyptian territory. The acquisition of J-10s is particularly significant when considering the current state of the Egyptian fighter fleet, which has long been considered almost totally incapable of fighting a major inter-state war. The close to 200 F-16s that form the backbone of the fleet are considered among the least capable fourth generation fighters in the world, and have been heavily downgraded and restricted to using obsolete Cold War era weaponry - and no beyond visual range air to surface weapons whatsoever. This combined with the United States’ control over spare parts supplies, and its tight restrictions imposed on how the aircraft can be operated, seriously limits Egyptian air power.

Alongside its F-16s, Egypt’s French-supplied Rafale fighters ordered since 2015 also suffer from significant downgrades to performance, most significantly the lack of Meteor air to air missiles which seriously limits their combat potential. The J-10C by contrast will provide Egypt with two of the most capable air to air missile classes in the world, the PL-10 and PL-15, which Western sources have widely conceded are significantly more capable than their American counterparts the AIM-9X and AIM-120D. For Egypt, which used Cold War era AIM-9 variants and the obsolete AIM-7, this represents a technological leap of several decades in terms of performance. The J-10C will represent by far the most capable fighter in the country in terms of air to air performance, and possibly the most capable on the African continent. The fighter has proven during simulated combat engagements to be capable of outperforming modern ‘4+ generation’ fighters close to twice its size, including Russian Su-35s and Chinese J-16s, while its arsenal of compatible air to ground ordinance is considerable. The J-10C is considered far more capable than any fighter in the Israeli fleet other than its two squadrons of F-35s, with large scale acquisitions potentially forcing Israel to expand F-35 orders and to invest in more capable air to air missiles for its aircraft.