It’s not about winning Iowa so much as it is a reflection of national climate. Though Selzer is historically far more accurate than Emerson.

Here’s a comment about why Selzer is a standout in the context of Trump’s previous elections.

Here’s my comment on the same thread which includes [Nate Silver’s writeup] (https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state) on why other pollsters are less reliable right now due to herding. Emerson is the second worst herder on his list.

Now I agree, it seems rather unlikely she wins Iowa. Selzer’s numbers leave room for a narrow Harris loss. I just wanted to provide context on why this poll is vastly more significant than Emerson’s. If she hasn’t made a massive mistake, the national climate is much more Harris friendly than it feels. I won’t let myself be optimistic over this, but it makes it a lot harder to be pessimistic.

From Nate Silver’s write up on this poll:

Yesterday, I complained about how so many pollsters are “herding” by publishing results that are almost an exact tie in a way that is incredibly statistically improbable given the unavoidable sampling error from surveying a small number of voters. I also noted a handful of prominent exceptions — rouge pollsters like the New York Times/Siena College that practically exist in an entirely different universe and imply a much bigger political realignment.

Another such maverick is Ann Selzer of Selzer & Co. (Selzer and NYT/Siena are our two highest-rated pollsters.) As my former colleague Clare Malone wrote in 2016, Selzer — like NYT/Siena — has a long history of bucking the conventional wisdom and being right. In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, she has near-oracular status.

Emphasis mine. While polls were decently off in 2016 and 2020, Selzer’s were not, and reflected a significant underestimate of Trump by nearly every other pollster. This poll suggests Harris is being underestimated. If Selzer is correct, Harris wins very comfortably.

It’s hard to explain how unexpected this result is. Harris proponents like myself were hoping for Trump +8-9 or less, which would correlate to a Harris win in the electoral college. You can still see this on r/fivethirtyeight from the bad site. I’m not optimistic and my best hope was Trump +7. People misread this as Trump +3 and were still celebrating. Headlines aren’t exaggerating here: this is a truly shocking poll. If the real result is even Trump +5, he is likely to have lost handily. If this is as accurate as Selzer has been since 2012, he will have lost in a true landslide. (Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, of course.)

I’ll link again Silver’s article on herding because it makes a strong case that most polls are not currently reliable due to self-preservation. Selzer releasing these results is not a self preserving move and would be a large pockmark on her otherwise “near-oracular” record.

You can scroll through my history and see that I am not an optimistic person. I initially assumed a Harris loss before Biden dropped out because RFK was still polling too well, a traditional indicator of loss when dropping incumbent status. I was pleased with her upward momentum— and still am, she deserves a great deal of credit for an excellent campaign— but she has always been the underdog in my mind. This is the most positive sign I’ve seen all season. It helps that Siena’s most recent PA poll was also quite positive at Harris +4 if I recall.

I’m too worried to be hopeful, but this has made it harder to doom. It’s so unexpected that I take it with a grain of salt, but if she’s even half right, things are a lot better than they feel.

Glad to hear! It really is a struggle but it’ll be worth it.

Yeah same. That’s why I actually want it to largely fail— Crowdstrike does deserve to take a hit for this, but boy did Delta fuck the dog on this one.

Delta is the only one who was affected this badly. When the other airlines recovered several days and thousands of flights quicker, Delta executives knew they were at fault for the abysmal followup.

Alas, that is not the corporate way. Delta in particular is greedy and proud of it; admittedly, this is still probably better than United which is also extremely greedy and their CEO is somehow more rancid, attempting to justify the violent removal of a paying customer. Anyway, hope this suit largely fails.

This is generally what I recommend. I’d also suggest going into it as blind as possible simply knowing that it’s a half comedy, half historical drama. It gets pretty heavy at times, more than most comedies. One of my favorite movies ever.

I saw it not even knowing that much and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Great film.

Hi op, how has the journey been going? Are you still trying to lose weight?

Okay so I haven’t heard about her before this but, from this thread and a quick google search, I feel like I know enough. Anyway. I’m hopeful then that the fame will pass— lots of internet fad celebrities fade and become more or less normal people again soon— but she pockets enough money to live a good life and keep paying it forward.

Good. I don’t know why they picked someone as likable as Walz if not to get him doing media appearances.

While cringey, Trump’s appearances on podcasts or with young YouTubers is likely a part of his grip on young men. The left doesn’t reach out to them much and demographics don’t like feeling ignored.

Walz is an excellent communicator and should be on TV and such as often as he can. Hell, get him on Rogan. That moron seems so malleable that Walz will have him nodding along in the first 30 seconds.

Yeah. I started working out pretty heavy way back to stop being underweight but I still go multiple times a week to upkeep. I hate it but it keeps me from this shit.

Staying fit keeps most of your body working way better for longer. You can feel bodily discomfort in the gym on your terms, or at random on nature’s terms.

Connections
Puzzle #474
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Hey maybe

I figured, the arrogance to do that also means they probably won’t care. Still, I think that every time. Surely they’re mostly in subpar shape themselves

Recorded speech about engaging in crimes is often acceptable evidence. It’s probably the same with written messages.

I guess it’s up to the accused to prevent law enforcement from acquiring what they said, whether it be preventing recording, preventing police from sifting through mail or unsecure communications, or preventing police from acquiring the accused’s copy of potentially illegal communications. Which he is currently attempting.

I don’t blame him for trying, and would agree on a lesser extent that he is right to prevent self incriminating now. But copied communication as acceptable evidence is pretty settled in law by now.

I can see that you haven't been through pain and helplessness at the whim of government, and that's how you think death is worse. Looks like you also believe they give us options and rights the way they tell you in school.

This? This says nothing about the proposed solution— which should satisfy you— or policy as a whole. Just personal gripes.

If you think someone is bad enough to kill, you should kill them yourself and don't drag it out.

That’s exactly what they did to Marcellus Williams.

Let me guess the next comment: bleak worldview, we only know what school told us, personal gripe.

Where? I reread this thread and all I see is the same complaining about your personal situation. You only replied one time to that comment, and there was no attempt at justifying anything.

It seems like you suffered significant trauma and it’s affected your worldview heavily. You saw a story about someone being executed despite evidence of their innocence and came in here not to suggest a better path but to say death > imprisonment and keep bringing up your situation. And yeah, that genuinely sucks and we all wish it didn’t happen. But your contribution here is based on your feeling of misery and helplessness which isn’t useful because the man who actually was executed didn’t want it.

You completely ignored the most important part to continue harping on your personal qualms.

hey cool, then you can request the judge for the death penalty instead of life (people have done that before). But you don't get to make that decision for other people.

That is a perfectly reasonable compromise. I too feel that life imprisonment is worse than death, but most people being wrongfully executed do not. You can acknowledge the superior solution then continue on your personal experience.

I can see that you haven't been through pain and helplessness at the whim of government, and that's how you think death is worse.

Not to diminish your experience, but Marcellus Williams went through far, far more than you have. He disagreed. So since you haven’t been through pain and helplessness at the whim of government as he had, is your opinion worth nothing next to his?

Of course not. Everyone can have an opinion on the death sentence. I’m sorry for what happened to you, but it doesn’t automatically make you right.

I’ve don’t have chronic illness and have never been given this bullshit, but I’ve seen enough posts like this to wonder what those guys are thinking. I’m 100% sure that anyone with chronic illness has been given better advice from healthier people. Why do they think they’re special?

Long Covid and chance of severe illness/death each time. Yeah, it sucks to feel like shit for a day or two, but I would regret trading that for long covid.

There’s so many places to go, incredible food to try, relationships to keep, new and old experiences in general. Long covid or death impacts every single one. So I always just sigh and get it.

Finally, it’s better societally as we could keep transmission low. There is always the chance that you get it and unknowingly spread it to someone with a compromised immune system and they die. That death impacts their family, friends, and the economy if that particularly matters to you. The social contract asks us to sacrifice a little for the sake of the greater good, but it does not demand it.

Still, I don’t terribly fault people for skipping it these days. That kind of risk is often accepted with non-covid things. Humans don’t like discomfort for the sake of a future maybe. If I wasn’t so concerned about my own quality of life, perhaps I’d skip it too.

Edit: I was scrolling through my calendar and realized another massive reason I always get the vaccine. It allows you to choose your own window of feeling like shit. For example, I travel a lot and wouldn’t want to miss any of it by getting covid. Choosing a couple random days to tank the shit feeling means a lower chance of feeling like shit in another country when I’m not prepared. Truly I envy those who feel fine after the shot.

I’ve seen a lot about this one being better. For me (I got Pfizer’s brilliantly named comirnaty) it was about the same if not a little bit worse. ~24hr of feeling feverish, significant body aches, sleeplessness, loss of appetite, vague feeling of unwell the same and next day. Was fine the day after that though.

These always treat me quite poorly. After my original second shot I was vomiting and felt truly horrible. But it hasn’t really improved since the third. Every time, I remember the incredibly low rates after the first vaccine, and lament what could have been.