thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them] @ thethirdgracchi @hexbear.net

ἐγὼ τὸ μὲν δὴ πανταχοῦ θρυλούμενον κράτιστον εἶναι φημὶ μὴ φῦναι βροτῷ·

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I agree, the time for a nuclear test was long ago. If Iran did a nuclear test today it would only provide justification for strikes. Unless Iran could demonstrably prove they had a few nukes and credible delivery systems for them the strikes would still happen.

This wait is excruciating. Cannot imagine being in Iran right now, or anywhere close for that matter. Going to go out for a bit and grab some tea. For those screen watchers who've just been glued to screens for days, don't forget to touch grass sometimes.

According to this article, it's doubtful the submarines can even get all the way there from Iran without resupply and detection by the US Navy. Granted this is a fed source so take it with a grain of salt, but a submarine attack would be very very risky with only a small chance of success. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/irans-tareq-class-submarines-were-built-for-exactly-one-thing

This is what, the third time in as many days we've seen this happen?

We think that might've been an Israeli cyberattack.

Iran doesn't have the missile tech to hit bases that far out. The B2s that will attempt to take out Fordow are stationed on Diego Garcia, well outside the range of most of Iran's missiles. They may have some that could potentially reach it (the Ghadr-110 might make it, but it's right at the edge of its range), but it'd be very very difficult.

Thank god for that, glad your family is safe and hope your MIL can get out and stay safe as well.

If she can get there, yeah probably. You ended up not going to Iraq, right? Absolutely the right decision in retrospect.

Not Good. Pretty much every asset the United States needs for strikes on Iran is already in place, Trump had a long meeting with the national security council, mainstream sources are reporting that it's all systems go as soon as Trump gives the green light, and it looks very likely that he will. Everybody is holding their breaths.

Thank you for the correction as always comrade, your depth of knowledge continues to impress me.

It's very unreasonable when the backer of said Israel is the United States who is willing to kill and destroy everything you hold dear. You cannot expect China, a country of 1.5 billion people, to put it on all the line and risk nuclear war with the preeminent superpower to save the lives of ~2 million Palestinians in Gaza. I agree with the OP here that there's vastly more China can and should do, but it's not reasonable to ask them to unilaterally declare war.

Missiles for THAAD ([EDIT: one of] the most advanced ballistic missile intercept system available to Israel) are around ~50 a year by the US.

I think a large part of Iran's small barrages right now is waiting to see what the United States does. They'll need all the missiles they can get if and when the US goes in.

It's just not really relevant right now. The Millennium Challenge shows pretty conclusively that the United States attempting a boot-on-the-ground invasion of Iran would end horribly and they'd get blown the fuck out. That I believe still holds, even more so. Iran would flood landing beaches with cruise missiles and drones, blow up boats with impunity, etc. But that's not in the cards right now. What we're looking at is a massive air campaign to destroy Iranian assets from the air, no invasion necessary. Totally different conflict.

Well there's our answer on why the US is deploying right now, if they don't the Entity risks annihilation at the hands of Iran's missiles.

Given recent movements of US military assets, probably close to none. I imagine a lot of this lowering of intensity is happening because everybody is holding their breaths before the deep plunge.

Yeah that's why I didn't say Iraq defeated the imperialists, just that they weren't destroyed. Iraq is still a thing, millions of people live and die in Iraq, living out full lives filled with joys and disappointments.

No it's far before Bush. The last time the US declared war was WWII. Even Korea and Vietnam were unilateral military actions by the President.