thethirdgracchi [he/him, they/them] @ thethirdgracchi @hexbear.net

ἐγὼ τὸ μὲν δὴ πανταχοῦ θρυλούμενον κράτιστον εἶναι φημὶ μὴ φῦναι βροτῷ·

---

Read more

Posts

1

Comments

920

Joined

5 yr. ago

Moderating

---

I posted the full article above just FYI

The rougamo is the superior burger, developed in the Qin dynasty over 2000 years ago and it blows every American "burger" out of the water in flavour and texture.

The United States cannot build up manufacturing capacity for a war economy because the expertise to manufacture these things and the resource extraction to build them (look at how the REM ban is going for them right now) is not possible under current market conditions. The United States would have to abandon free market neoliberal economics for this to happen.

Apparently two Chinese survellience naval ships are in the Persian Gulf right now. Not hard to imagine they're sharing something with the Iranians. https://xcancel.com/davidle76335983/status/1935448211834933346

Climate Stalin rises in Tehran.

Very telling that the United States has evacuated all its aircraft from bases within striking distance of Iran's missiles, but not any of its soldiers. Tells you everything you need to know about their priorities.

America doesn't need a false flag, just like Israel doesn't need a false flag. They've already manufactured as much casus belli as they cared to, which is not much, because it doesn't really matter.

Being such a vocal critic of the invasion of Iraq back when Trump didn't have any skin in the game shows us he does understand what a farce this would be. I agree, I think it's his gut telling him it's gonna be a giant mess.

Israel will never face consequences for their actions until they are dropped by the United States unfortunately. They could nuke Tehran proper and nobody would bat an eye.

There is no Plan. I think that's the problem they've run into, hence the indecision.

Apparently Iran just fired a new missile, or one that looks new. Just a single missile, they're testing something. Obviously was intercepted, but it was just one launch and it left some seriously pretty designs in the sky. Take a look: https://t.me/me_observer_TG/554402?single

I think there is something to be said for Israel assassinating Nasrallah though, that absolutely did help cripple Hezbollah. But Nasrallah was a unique case, dude was a living legend beloved the world over. Iran doesn't have anybody nearly as charismatic or legendary as Nasrallah, and right now that's oddly a good thing. Khamenei getting killed doesn't really change much at all.

Have to chalk a lot of it up to fascist myth of invulnerability. Israel, like the United States, has been huffing their own propaganda supply for too long. I think they were really expecting Iran to collapse fast—their drone "bases" and decapitation strike must have been years, even decades, in the making. Their strikes on Friday were spectacular and devastating, I think they really expected that to be all it took. But Iran didn't topple, and now it's slowly but surely depleting their stocks of defenses, and they're a bit lost as to what to do next. You can't repeat the successes of last week, and all the preparation and grooming of various assets and intelligence is now down the drain. Meanwhile, I think Trump is paralysed with indecision. The Pentagon wants to go in and "finish the job," all the assets are in place, but Trump knows it will be vastly unpopular with his base and I'm not sure if he can bring himself to swallow that.

The problem for Ukraine is any serious amount of production for missiles (or any other weapons) is just going to get taken out by Russia. They're not really capable of producing any serious weaponry en masse within Ukraine itself.

No, if anything it's the opposite, and Trump is trying to butter up Munir to host American strategic assets for a strike on Iran. Pakistan is not going to war for Iran, nor are they going to provide any guarantees or help. Pakistan is, at the end of the day, an American puppet. The military even removed Imran Khan from power because the American ambassador said to (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alleged_threat_letter_against_Imran_Khan). They buy a lot of weapons from China, sure, and are an important ally, but the United States is deeply embedded in Pakistan and has sent them billions and billions of dollars.

B2s don't fly during the daytime usually, the United States is very careful with this platform.

—❗️🇮🇷/🇮🇱 Washington Post: 'Israel will only be able to maintain shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles for 10 or 12 more days, then they will need to start rationing munitions'

This could explain why Iran is opting to launch small but consecutive waves. Iran is likely using up some of their older / less sophisticated missiles to deplete Israeli defenses, to make way for the 'real' stuff later on. This is attritional warfare.

In most cases, a small wave of 3-5 Iranian ballistic missiles is enough to prompt the launch of about 10-15 Israeli interceptor missiles, with each one costing at least $12 million dollars (in the case of THAAD).

In contrast, even Iran's most modern missile, the Fattah-1, only costs about $200,000 to produce. If we assume 12 interceptors for one Fattah-1 missile (as seen in a video today), that means Israel is spending $144 million dollars to 'intercept' (or not) a single Iranian hypersonic missile.

This is simply not sustainable. Within about two weeks, if Iran keeps up the current pace of fire, Israeli airspace will be at the mercy of Iran's far larger and more destructive solid fuel missiles. Unless, of course, the U.S. intervenes directly.

From @Middle_East_Spectator, good analysis that lines up with a lot of what we've been saying here.

Losing my mind at this. Most unserious poster in chief.