hotcouchguy [he/him] @ hotcouchguy @hexbear.net

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696

Joined

5 yr. ago

My (limited) understanding is the SDF was relying on a balance between opposing forces, and now that balance is toppled. Seems like they have no allies and no strategic value to anyone currently. Turkey or HTS or someone else will probably just crush them at the first convenient opportunity.

That's not even a conspiracy theory, that's a conspiracy implication, nothing substantial.

Rumor is that HTS offered to Iran to not interfere with Hezbollah & it's supply lines. Via latest war nerd ep, not sure if there was a specific source given.

his backpack, which had Monopoly money and a jacket inside.

he's fucking with them lmao

I thought the rounds were 9mm?

Thanks for the level perspective, this makes a lot of sense

This isn't really Cold War 2, and isn't really WW3, but it's a combination of both. The US is getting weaker and China getting stronger, and both know it. US can't win a direct war now, but the longer they wait the worse off they would be if they started one. They're compelled to act now because acting later is worse. And they've seen that their proxy wars against Russia and Iran are also not going well. These "direct" proxy wars are also unfavorable to the US, because their military industry is too expensive and slow and inefficient.

But the US does still have a strategic reserve of new proxy wars available. They have simmering conflicts on standby all over the globe, using local reactionaries and compradors and NGOs that they've nurtured for decades. China and it's allies have their own networks of local allies, but nowhere near the scope or depth. And these networks take decades to build, the US is way ahead here.

The US can't win a direct war, they can't even win a large proxy war, but they have a good chance in 20 or 30 simultaneous proxy wars. So expect this to continue escalating in new locations for many years. And just like Biden continued Trump's trade wars, Trump will continue Biden's global proxy war. Because it's not a normal policy decision, it's their best strategy for continuing their empire.

There is some good news here, domestically and globally. Globally: they're spending extremely valuable reserves now, and they can't rebuild these quickly. Even if they win 2/3 of these conflicts they'll likely still emerge in a weaker position than when they started. And if any one of these results in a genuine popular revolution, that could easily spread in this environment and upset their entire strategy. And domestically, this will be incredibly destabilizing: disrupted supply chains, massive military spending, inflation, and rolling military deployments of various scales. All the things associated with Biden (and Bush, and Obama) that people hated, that people tried to vote against at every opportunity, and they're going to keep getting worse regardless of who holds which office. How long will people put up with openly meaningless elections in this supposedly "greatest" democracy? how much will they sacrifice for a system they hate, that regards them with contempt?

Tax haven ass name

We haven't seen this kind of unity since that police station burned down

He didn't mean to attempt a coup, it was just the Ambien, you know how that can be

I'm reading this thread so everyone else can parse the truth and lies for me

Yeah, this is the core of it. LOTR was basically fine on its own, but part of a trend that now brought us marvel set(s?) and now 1/2 of new sets will be outside IP.

They did fear that, but I think in the US in the 30s there was no real consensus among capitalists about the nature of the crisis or what do do about it. Some of them were in denial, many turned to fascism, some tried a coup against FDR. FDR broke through this impasse, chose a direction, and acted, overcoming the opposition within his class. And it was a successful strategy for the capitalists.

In 2008, there was some elite concern and uncertainty due to several structural problems converging, but the ruling class consensus was to make some marginal changes but preserve the status quo as much as possible. Like you indicated, they were not sufficiently concerned to do more than that. And Obama embodied this outlook and implemented this strategy. And it has been a failure for their class and their system.

Edit: I guess my point is, the opportunity existed to force through a variety of possible changes and new directions, but Obama personified how the ruling class did not have the clarity or the will to do anything substantial. And as a working class we were only a nuisance at the margins. There was (objectively) an opportunity for us as well, but we had no organization, no leadership, no strategic clarity, no capacity to act in any meaningful way.

Yes, and Obama could have similarly enacted progressive reforms in service of the larger goal of rationalizing, stabilizing, and reinvigorating a system that was showing serious systemic flaws and signs of decline and decay. And like FDR he had the opportunity to do this in spite of opposition from Congress and the courts, to seize the historical moment and plow through these obstacles. But instead he did the bare minimum and kept the status quo intact at all costs. Because failing systems can only produce failed leaders.

Between his mandate, the financial crisis, and the level of class anger, he could have governed like a pink tide president or an FDR. Obviously that's not who he was. There was a huge opportunity but no desire to act, quite the opposite.

They're very serious about "authenticity" but much of it was invented post-WW2. It's an intentional national cultural project more than some ancient tradition.

Wow that Syria prediction didn't take long

Yeah! On my first world playing the expansion, currently have moderate factories on fulgora and vulcanus. Feels so much bigger than the original, even though I would guess I'm halfway-ish through the game.

Yeah, there was about a week after his nomination, and before Harris took any actual positions on anything, where people were able imagine she was a progressive. But she ended that pretty quickly and Waltz followed along awkwardly.

I assume few? Isn't the theory that we're seeing a "geographic sorting" where the fanatics move to Israel and the normies move out? Obviously with plenty of exceptions, but isn't that supposedly what we've been seeing for the past decade or two, especially in the past year? I don't recall seeing much hard data on this, so maybe this is just inferred from the polling, would like to know more if anyone has more concrete info.