Yeah especially when you get down below 0.1
It may be flawed, but apparently it works pretty well of that's the only one that stood out to me.
But that begs the question, how do you determine the first top 25 teams if there's no top 25 team to beat? π
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Rarity: 0.98
Took awhile, but I got it under 1.00!
Lots of upsets means there is a lot of movement in my computer poll. Pitt π©, A&M, Penn State, VT, Kansas State, and Iowa State plummet. Meanwhile Georgia is climbing the rankings, whether my computer likes it or not!
- Oregon
- Indiana
- Miami (FL)
- Notre Dame
- Ohio State
- SMU
- Texas
- Georgia
- Tennessee
- BYU
- Ole Miss
- Penn State
- LSU
- Alabama
- Boise State
- Pittsburgh
- Texas A&M
- Colorado
- Army
- Louisville
- Tulane
- Minnesota
- Clemson
- South Carolina
- Washington State
Full Rankings
Rank | Team | Record | Rating | SOS |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | (9-0) | 1405 | 982 |
2 | Indiana | (9-0) | 1392 | 908 |
3 | Miami | (9-0) | 1357 | 949 |
4 | Notre Dame | (7-1) | 1353 | 1001 |
5 | Ohio State | (7-1) | 1352 | 1080 |
6 | SMU | (8-1) | 1343 | 954 |
7 | Texas | (7-1) | 1313 | 1043 |
8 | Georgia | (7-1) | 1305 | 994 |
9 | Tennessee | (7-1) | 1281 | 918 |
10 | BYU | (8-0) | 1279 | 937 |
11 | Ole Miss | (7-2) | 1271 | 972 |
12 | Penn State | (7-1) | 1264 | 1014 |
13 | LSU | (6-2) | 1235 | 1019 |
14 | Alabama | (6-2) | 1234 | 1151 |
15 | Boise State | (7-1) | 1233 | 973 |
16 | Pittsburgh | (7-1) | 1232 | 969 |
17 | Texas A&M | (7-2) | 1231 | 1030 |
18 | Colorado | (6-2) | 1226 | 965 |
19 | Army | (8-0) | 1226 | 754 |
20 | Louisville | (6-3) | 1224 | 1083 |
21 | Tulane | (7-2) | 1216 | 915 |
22 | Minnesota | (6-3) | 1212 | 960 |
23 | Clemson | (6-2) | 1197 | 1012 |
24 | South Carolina | (5-3) | 1194 | 1080 |
25 | Washington State | (7-1) | 1189 | 947 |
26 | Iowa State | (7-1) | 1185 | 984 |
27 | Kansas State | (7-2) | 1182 | 977 |
28 | Syracuse | (6-2) | 1182 | 968 |
29 | Iowa | (6-3) | 1181 | 1001 |
30 | Vanderbilt | (6-3) | 1179 | 966 |
31 | Louisiana | (7-1) | 1153 | 848 |
32 | Arizona State | (6-2) | 1145 | 940 |
33 | Virginia Tech | (5-4) | 1142 | 1055 |
34 | Texas Tech | (6-3) | 1133 | 1001 |
35 | Western Kentucky | (6-2) | 1130 | 857 |
36 | Missouri | (6-2) | 1121 | 949 |
37 | Baylor | (5-4) | 1120 | 969 |
38 | Cincinnati | (5-3) | 1115 | 1032 |
39 | Georgia Southern | (6-3) | 1103 | 944 |
40 | Washington | (5-4) | 1102 | 998 |
41 | UNLV | (6-2) | 1096 | 926 |
42 | Illinois | (6-3) | 1091 | 985 |
43 | Jacksonville State | (5-3) | 1090 | 846 |
44 | James Madison | (6-2) | 1089 | 853 |
45 | Michigan | (5-4) | 1084 | 1115 |
46 | North Carolina | (5-4) | 1084 | 965 |
47 | Memphis | (7-2) | 1075 | 835 |
48 | Florida | (4-4) | 1074 | 1046 |
49 | Sam Houston | (7-2) | 1072 | 875 |
50 | Arkansas | (5-4) | 1071 | 987 |
51 | Duke | (6-3) | 1065 | 980 |
52 | Miami (OH) | (4-4) | 1061 | 974 |
53 | Marshall | (5-3) | 1054 | 956 |
54 | Navy | (6-2) | 1053 | 858 |
55 | Houston | (4-5) | 1052 | 1039 |
56 | Wisconsin | (5-4) | 1051 | 966 |
57 | UConn | (6-3) | 1048 | 845 |
58 | Colorado State | (6-3) | 1047 | 848 |
59 | Georgia Tech | (5-4) | 1044 | 1000 |
60 | UCLA | (3-5) | 1043 | 1172 |
61 | TCU | (5-4) | 1040 | 961 |
62 | NC State | (5-4) | 1039 | 948 |
63 | Nebraska | (5-4) | 1031 | 981 |
64 | West Virginia | (4-4) | 1027 | 982 |
65 | Wake Forest | (4-4) | 1024 | 982 |
66 | Toledo | (6-3) | 1017 | 862 |
67 | Ohio | (5-3) | 1014 | 873 |
68 | Oklahoma | (5-4) | 1010 | 1055 |
69 | Old Dominion | (4-5) | 1007 | 982 |
70 | California | (4-4) | 1006 | 946 |
71 | USC | (4-5) | 1003 | 1070 |
72 | UCF | (4-5) | 1003 | 1024 |
73 | Western Michigan | (5-3) | 999 | 873 |
74 | North Texas | (5-3) | 991 | 878 |
75 | Boston College | (4-4) | 989 | 973 |
76 | Maryland | (4-4) | 988 | 995 |
77 | Michigan State | (4-5) | 985 | 1058 |
78 | Virginia | (4-4) | 972 | 969 |
79 | Liberty | (5-2) | 966 | 783 |
80 | Fresno State | (5-4) | 965 | 872 |
81 | UL Monroe | (5-3) | 963 | 883 |
82 | East Carolina | (4-4) | 958 | 890 |
83 | Bowling Green | (4-4) | 956 | 889 |
84 | Arkansas State | (5-3) | 956 | 850 |
85 | Texas State | (4-4) | 955 | 925 |
86 | App State | (4-4) | 950 | 935 |
87 | Northwestern | (4-5) | 949 | 999 |
88 | South Florida | (4-4) | 949 | 938 |
89 | Auburn | (3-6) | 947 | 977 |
90 | South Alabama | (4-5) | 941 | 932 |
91 | Buffalo | (5-4) | 941 | 874 |
92 | San JosΓ© State | (5-3) | 929 | 813 |
93 | Kentucky | (3-6) | 926 | 1107 |
94 | Hawai'i | (4-5) | 925 | 883 |
95 | Utah | (4-4) | 920 | 903 |
96 | Rutgers | (4-4) | 914 | 937 |
97 | Kansas | (2-6) | 906 | 1004 |
98 | Rice | (3-6) | 894 | 980 |
99 | Oregon State | (4-4) | 894 | 919 |
100 | UTSA | (4-5) | 894 | 865 |
101 | San Diego State | (3-5) | 886 | 903 |
102 | Northern Illinois | (4-4) | 873 | 906 |
103 | Ball State | (3-5) | 872 | 912 |
104 | Eastern Michigan | (5-4) | 866 | 829 |
105 | Mississippi State | (2-7) | 865 | 1025 |
106 | Oklahoma State | (3-6) | 860 | 989 |
107 | Charlotte | (3-6) | 858 | 1018 |
108 | Coastal Carolina | (4-4) | 844 | 913 |
109 | Arizona | (3-6) | 825 | 994 |
110 | Temple | (2-6) | 819 | 960 |
111 | Florida International | (3-6) | 819 | 835 |
112 | Florida State | (1-8) | 812 | 1129 |
113 | Central Michigan | (3-5) | 810 | 876 |
114 | Louisiana Tech | (3-5) | 799 | 778 |
115 | UAB | (2-6) | 795 | 955 |
116 | Middle Tennessee | (3-6) | 784 | 910 |
117 | Utah State | (2-6) | 780 | 876 |
118 | New Mexico | (3-6) | 776 | 788 |
119 | Troy | (2-7) | 775 | 897 |
120 | Stanford | (2-7) | 773 | 1080 |
121 | Wyoming | (2-7) | 764 | 873 |
122 | Nevada | (3-7) | 762 | 959 |
123 | Tulsa | (3-6) | 759 | 860 |
124 | Purdue | (1-7) | 752 | 1022 |
125 | Georgia State | (2-6) | 739 | 973 |
126 | Florida Atlantic | (2-6) | 732 | 914 |
127 | Akron | (2-7) | 725 | 960 |
128 | Kennesaw State | (1-7) | 700 | 918 |
129 | Southern Miss | (1-7) | 697 | 941 |
130 | New Mexico State | (2-6) | 687 | 861 |
131 | Air Force | (1-7) | 674 | 914 |
132 | Massachusetts | (2-7) | 668 | 838 |
133 | UTEP | (1-8) | 660 | 894 |
134 | Kent State | (0-8) | 592 | 984 |
I use https://collegefootballdata.com/ which has an API, though I don't actually use it (yet). I just navigate to "Data" > "Games and Results" and export the 2024 FBS games to a csv file and use that.
It looks like one of the ballots double voted Notre Dame (9 & 10), Kansas State (19 & 21), and SMU (18 & 24), giving them an extra 16, 5, and 2 points respectively (if you remove the lower ranked).
Pretty much! It doesn't have to be a computer poll, it can be just your opinion, or a hybrid.
I do a computer poll, because a) I don't watch enough games to make an informed ranking and b) it's a fun exercise in coding and tuning the algorithm(s) for me.
You also don't need to share your ballot in the comments, but I also enjoy sharing and explaining what my algorithm is doing and if/where I disagree with it.
Here are the results from my computer poll. Oregon overtakes Indiana, and Notre Dame gets a big boost. Navy sadly falls out of the Top 25, but still on the bubble.
- Oregon
- Indiana
- Notre Dame
- Penn State
- Miami
- Texas
- Texas A&M
- Pittsburgh
- Ohio State
- BYU
- Clemson
- SMU
- Kansas State
- Iowa State
- Tennessee
- Georgia
- LSU
- Alabama
- Colorado
- Army
- Virginia Tech
- Ole Miss
- Boise State
- Washington State
- Tulane
Full Rankings
Rank | Team | Record | Rating | SOS |
---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Oregon | (8-0) | 1376 | 963 |
2 | Indiana | (8-0) | 1363 | 883 |
3 | Notre Dame | (7-1) | 1352 | 1024 |
4 | Penn State | (7-0) | 1333 | 980 |
5 | Miami | (8-0) | 1323 | 936 |
6 | Texas | (7-1) | 1312 | 1018 |
7 | Texas A&M | (7-1) | 1311 | 1014 |
8 | Pittsburgh | (7-0) | 1301 | 897 |
9 | Ohio State | (6-1) | 1281 | 1053 |
10 | BYU | (8-0) | 1279 | 927 |
11 | Clemson | (6-1) | 1277 | 972 |
12 | SMU | (7-1) | 1274 | 939 |
13 | Kansas State | (7-1) | 1271 | 975 |
14 | Iowa State | (7-0) | 1269 | 923 |
15 | Tennessee | (6-1) | 1269 | 920 |
16 | Georgia | (6-1) | 1265 | 992 |
17 | LSU | (6-2) | 1234 | 1021 |
18 | Alabama | (6-2) | 1233 | 1130 |
19 | Colorado | (6-2) | 1226 | 974 |
20 | Army | (7-0) | 1223 | 760 |
21 | Virginia Tech | (5-3) | 1210 | 1040 |
22 | Ole Miss | (6-2) | 1205 | 933 |
23 | Boise State | (6-1) | 1204 | 963 |
24 | Washington State | (7-1) | 1189 | 931 |
25 | Tulane | (6-2) | 1177 | 894 |
26 | Memphis | (7-1) | 1167 | 823 |
27 | Illinois | (6-2) | 1154 | 980 |
28 | Minnesota | (5-3) | 1148 | 932 |
29 | Louisville | (5-3) | 1144 | 1047 |
30 | Vanderbilt | (5-3) | 1144 | 979 |
31 | Navy | (6-1) | 1142 | 861 |
32 | Arkansas | (5-3) | 1135 | 952 |
33 | Western Kentucky | (5-2) | 1122 | 871 |
34 | Missouri | (6-2) | 1121 | 960 |
35 | Wisconsin | (5-3) | 1118 | 954 |
36 | Cincinnati | (5-3) | 1115 | 1006 |
37 | Iowa | (5-3) | 1113 | 970 |
38 | Michigan | (5-3) | 1112 | 1093 |
39 | Florida | (4-3) | 1110 | 997 |
40 | Nebraska | (5-3) | 1110 | 982 |
41 | South Carolina | (4-3) | 1110 | 1064 |
42 | Syracuse | (5-2) | 1110 | 952 |
43 | Arizona State | (5-2) | 1108 | 926 |
44 | Louisiana | (6-1) | 1108 | 829 |
45 | TCU | (5-3) | 1100 | 909 |
46 | Duke | (6-2) | 1099 | 908 |
47 | UNLV | (6-2) | 1098 | 914 |
48 | Old Dominion | (4-4) | 1091 | 997 |
49 | James Madison | (6-2) | 1090 | 863 |
50 | Baylor | (4-4) | 1061 | 964 |
51 | Miami (OH) | (4-4) | 1061 | 976 |
52 | Georgia Southern | (5-3) | 1057 | 942 |
53 | Washington | (4-4) | 1056 | 988 |
54 | Sam Houston | (6-2) | 1055 | 867 |
55 | USC | (4-4) | 1053 | 1078 |
56 | Fresno State | (5-3) | 1051 | 893 |
57 | Texas Tech | (5-3) | 1048 | 982 |
58 | Georgia Tech | (5-4) | 1042 | 996 |
59 | UConn | (5-3) | 1035 | 852 |
60 | Liberty | (5-1) | 1032 | 737 |
61 | North Carolina | (4-4) | 1032 | 993 |
62 | West Virginia | (4-4) | 1027 | 1033 |
63 | Jacksonville State | (4-3) | 1024 | 837 |
64 | Wake Forest | (4-4) | 1024 | 976 |
65 | UL Monroe | (5-2) | 1022 | 842 |
66 | Ohio | (5-3) | 1014 | 871 |
67 | Michigan State | (4-4) | 1012 | 1006 |
68 | Colorado State | (5-3) | 1011 | 878 |
69 | California | (4-4) | 1006 | 958 |
70 | Texas State | (4-3) | 1001 | 872 |
71 | Western Michigan | (5-3) | 999 | 865 |
72 | Marshall | (4-3) | 996 | 938 |
73 | North Texas | (5-3) | 990 | 886 |
74 | Boston College | (4-4) | 989 | 980 |
75 | South Alabama | (4-4) | 989 | 897 |
76 | NC State | (4-4) | 988 | 972 |
77 | Maryland | (4-4) | 987 | 986 |
78 | Oklahoma | (4-4) | 982 | 1104 |
79 | Auburn | (3-5) | 980 | 963 |
80 | Toledo | (5-3) | 975 | 855 |
81 | Virginia | (4-4) | 972 | 973 |
82 | Houston | (3-5) | 964 | 1024 |
83 | UCLA | (2-5) | 962 | 1173 |
84 | Arkansas State | (5-3) | 957 | 874 |
85 | East Carolina | (4-4) | 957 | 890 |
86 | Bowling Green | (4-4) | 955 | 918 |
87 | UCF | (3-5) | 939 | 1069 |
88 | Kentucky | (3-5) | 935 | 1066 |
89 | San JosΓ© State | (5-3) | 931 | 815 |
90 | Coastal Carolina | (4-3) | 930 | 929 |
91 | Utah | (4-4) | 920 | 900 |
92 | San Diego State | (3-4) | 918 | 832 |
93 | Rutgers | (4-4) | 913 | 960 |
94 | Eastern Michigan | (5-3) | 908 | 805 |
95 | Kansas | (2-6) | 906 | 1015 |
96 | Northwestern | (3-5) | 903 | 1025 |
97 | Buffalo | (4-4) | 898 | 893 |
98 | Oklahoma State | (3-5) | 897 | 991 |
99 | Charlotte | (3-5) | 895 | 994 |
100 | Oregon State | (4-4) | 893 | 926 |
101 | Arizona | (3-5) | 889 | 1004 |
102 | South Florida | (3-4) | 887 | 959 |
103 | Northern Illinois | (4-4) | 873 | 896 |
104 | Ball State | (3-5) | 871 | 904 |
105 | App State | (3-4) | 866 | 939 |
106 | Florida State | (1-7) | 862 | 1147 |
107 | New Mexico | (3-5) | 858 | 817 |
108 | Hawai'i | (3-5) | 842 | 866 |
109 | Tulsa | (3-5) | 834 | 862 |
110 | Stanford | (2-6) | 824 | 1093 |
111 | Temple | (2-6) | 818 | 985 |
112 | Louisiana Tech | (3-4) | 816 | 739 |
113 | Central Michigan | (3-5) | 810 | 885 |
114 | Mississippi State | (1-7) | 805 | 1077 |
115 | Nevada | (3-6) | 801 | 921 |
116 | Rice | (2-6) | 801 | 944 |
117 | UTSA | (3-5) | 799 | 850 |
118 | Purdue | (1-6) | 797 | 1058 |
119 | Florida Atlantic | (2-5) | 790 | 888 |
120 | Utah State | (2-6) | 780 | 879 |
121 | Akron | (2-6) | 767 | 948 |
122 | Florida International | (2-6) | 754 | 874 |
123 | Georgia State | (2-5) | 753 | 942 |
124 | New Mexico State | (2-5) | 752 | 891 |
125 | Massachusetts | (2-6) | 727 | 830 |
126 | UTEP | (1-7) | 724 | 912 |
127 | Middle Tennessee | (2-6) | 720 | 942 |
128 | UAB | (1-6) | 717 | 998 |
129 | Kennesaw State | (1-6) | 707 | 859 |
130 | Southern Miss | (1-7) | 697 | 928 |
131 | Troy | (1-7) | 691 | 931 |
132 | Wyoming | (1-7) | 684 | 885 |
133 | Air Force | (1-6) | 676 | 870 |
134 | Kent State | (0-8) | 592 | 1004 |
What Kennesaw State isn't a quality loss?? /s
It's okay, my poll has Alabama at #20, that should help balance things out a bit.
BTW, how did you format your full ranking? I can't figure out how to get mine to do that.
My computer poll still really likes Indiana despite the relatively easy schedule and still really doesn't like Georgia, despite their win against Texas (though it did help quite a bit).
- Indiana
- Oregon
- Miami
- LSU
- Penn State
- Notre Dame
- BYU
- Texas
- Tennessee
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- Iowa State
- Kansas State
- Texas A&M
- SMU
- Pittsburgh
- Illinois
- Missouri
- Alabama
- Navy
- Army
- Vanderbilt
- Ole Miss
- Colorado
I was so proud of myself for getting Mega Boss for the first time! The. I saw that almost half of people got Mega Boss... π
Here is my ballot from my computer poll:
- Texas
- Indiana
- Oregon
- BYU
- Miami
- Penn State
- Army
- Iowa State
- Ohio State
- Clemson
- James Madison
- Texas Tech
- Pittsburgh
- Navy
- Kansas State
- SMU
- Notre Dame
- Texas A&M
- LSU
- Nebraska
- Boise State
- Sam Houston
- Arizona State
- Ole Miss
- Tennessee
Speak for yourself, my computer LOVES both of them!
Edit: Maybe not as much as I remember, but it has them in the top 30.
Here are the results of my computer poll. I am still tweaking and refining the algorithm, but the basic method has not changed. A little on that below.
My Ratings
Rank | Rating | Team
- 1494 Texas
- 1458 Ohio State
- 1371 Penn State
- 1330 Ole Miss
- 1328 Nebraska
- 1321 Notre Dame
- 1315 Texas A&M
- 1313 Washington
- 1295 LSU
- 1294 Indiana
- 1293 SMU
- 1280 Iowa State
- 1277 Georgia
- 1275 Oregon
- 1265 Texas Tech
- 1259 Clemson
- 1257 Syracuse
- 1245 Kentucky
- 1241 Pittsburgh
- 1235 Virginia
- 1234 Miami
- 1223 Boise State
- 1220 Oklahoma
- 1206 Kansas State
- 1204 Minnesota
Methodology
The computer poll uses both an ELO rating system and a predictor that compares how each team performed against the predicted spread, I call this the Performance Against Spread (PAS). I implemented PAS so that an underdog still get credit for playing a close game and winners can get bonus points for points for performing better than expected... to a point.
The poll starts assuming all FBS teams are equal. For each game, in chronological order, it calculates the ELO and PAS ratings and does an weighted average of them. Since all teams start on equal footing, there are a limited number of games, and a limited amount of movement per game, the computer then returns all ratings to the mean by a certain amount and repeats. It does this many times until the ratings stabilize, then it spits out it's results.
As I refine the algorithm, I am adjusting several variables including how quickly ratings can swing (the K variable in ELO ratings), the weight of ELO vs. PAS, the number of iterations, and the return-to-mean ratio, to name a few. This poll only rates FBS teams and assumes a fixed rating for FCS teams, though I may rate FCS teams in the future.
Yeah, Georgia's drop is in part due to my poll. It's my first week submitting and my computer poll is really down on Georgia atm. I think it has them in the low 30's right now.
I got Hexcodle #348 in 4! Score: 67%
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I'm with you on tiramisu. If I could only have one dessert for the rest of my life, that would be it!
How much strawberry and banana did you add and when? I know you need a lot of strawberry to get any flavor, but I would've guessed banana would come through stronger.