538 predicts a 2020 sized Harris victory, Georgia and North Carolina flip. THQ predicts a tight Harris win, mostly in the Rust Belt & maybe a NC grab? RCP predicts a tight Trump victory via Pennsylvania.
All 3 agree on Georgia going red and Michigan and Wisconsin going blue. Those states have held their colors firm for quite some time.
Whether former swing states, captured ex-solid states, or states that have always had close margins. I picked 7 for each side(I was gonna do 3, then 4, then 5, but the number on one side always felt awkward like one side had a weird outlier edge case or something. Pink has a clean base of 4 while Cyan has two main ones and then like, 5 is the next one where it all fits)
Pink States are Iowa, Ohio, and Florida(former Swing States in the 2000-2016 era), Texas, South Carolina, and Alaska (Red States weakening) and Indiana(2008 pick up that's been red before and after).
Cyan States are Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and New Hampshire(former swing states in the 2000-2016 era), plus Maine and Minnesota(perpetually teetering states) and New Jersey(Blue state weakening).
Still got the 5th most votes of any presidential candidate ever. (1st is Biden 2020 and 2nd is Trump 2020, 3rd is 08 Obama, 4th is 2012 Obama)
Also that second to last point isn't 100%, but there's a lot of rumor and evidence to suggest the plan at the end of Clinton's term was to bring in Gore, and then either when he lost or ran out his terms JFK Jr. was to be the next guy in line. Him dying and Al Gore losing put them in a tough spot in 2004.
I will note the idea Harris was picked at the 2020 primaries is bunk, people don't vote on a President/VP ticket then(though that would be an interesting system). Harris was picked by Biden, and while she was on the 2020 ticket in the national election it's impossible to say how many people she swayed.
I don't think she's perfect, but unlike Hillary at least Harris was picked by circumstance, even if unfortunate circumstance, not appointed years in advance like Hillary was. (Hillary had been intending to go for it after she gained some political experience and Bill's scandal faded. Al Gore was supposed to carry the democrats, but that didn't work out, and JFK Jr who was being courted for a 2004 run died in a plane crash in 1999, so they had to work with John Kerry which didn't go well. Then Hillary was ready and initially had party favor, but Obama came in like a locomotive without brakes: All the DNC's horses and all the RNCs men couldn't stop Obama in 08, no my friend)
Today is an all time high on slightly right leaning RCP, and a slight rebound on 538(But not to 12th/13th/15th levels). More like 16th or 11th evening. RCP tends to lag a bit on D rises and vice versa for 538 so we'll see. Still suggests the overall strong growth trend passed and we're nearing a ceiling. Not a bad ceiling, a winning ceiling, but it's there.
Canadian, not my fight. Our liberals ain't doing so good
Before anyone starts getting a bit too high off their own supply Harris's polling averages peaked on August 12th. They were stagnant or declining on the 13th and 14th, briefly spiked on the 15th, and that spike was completely undone on the 16th. Today is dropping again. Not big drops, like 1/10th of a point every other day(which day depends on which conglomerates you use), but the growth trend is over.
Decided to check since people said Trump was scrambling for endorsements. No former president or former vice president alive supports him. Most of the failed candidates for both don't either(Romney, Ryan). Sarah Palin is the only VP Candidate willing to back him.
That's literally what I said, hence I feel like this poll was off-there. Might have been too red in Nevada tho.
If Georgia is a toss up North Carolina is lean red. Nevada probably isn't that red though
Ehhhh. Where does CPR lean? The fact that Nevada is 3 points red and North Carolina is more blue than Georgia is...odd. Right leaning polls tend to show Nevada as really close, centrist polls too, I get it has a small sample size, but that's odd. Also NC turning while Georgia holds is weird, the trends are similar in both states, but Georgia was blue-er last time.
In terms of the averages Georgia is still red, and this solidifies Nevada. NC has too many other red polls for this to change that. Does push Arizona into dead even or lean blue average and Pennsylvania solidly into lean blue.
r/politics told me to go here for image posts
For a quick TL:DR on each.
The Libertarians were founded in 1971, initially stuck to a pretty core Randian Libertarian message albeit gradually weaning off the hard AnCap stance. Then they tilted right for a bit in the 90s to take advantage of the disgruntled Republican bloc, then tilted left during Y2K as the Reform Party turned right, but tilted hard right during the Tea Party era and later Trump Era, ultimately culminating in a Party Civil War in 2022 which saw a hard right Trump faction take over the party, followed by a counter takeover by a Moderate and Leftist faction, leading to the hard rights abandoning the party on mass for the GOP and the Moderates trying to go for RFK, but they've been kept in line by Chase Oliver's left leaning faction who are currently nominated. They have been the strongest third party since around 2006, though they've collapsed in the polls following internal conflict this year.
The USA Green Party was founded in 1991(though the current version broke away in 2001 and the remnant faction died off in 2019) as a mostly environmentalist and progressive party. After some initial issues with the Natural Law Party they surged in 2000 taking advantage of a right wing takeover of the Reform Party, under the leadership of Ralph Nader. Following Ralph leaving briefly in 2004 for the Reforms combined with Obama rising the Green Party nearly collapsed in the late 2000s, but since then the modern Green Party has mostly consolidated under the tight control of Jill Stein, who has been the dominant figure in the party since 2011. It's very much her party as seen by the bad under performance in 2020 when she didn't run. They were briefly the Number 1 third party in the early-mid 2000s and have been solidly Top 2 for their entire existence. They're set to outpreform the Libertarians for the first time in 20 years this year, though their future is iffy with Jill's coming retirement and the soaring PSL cutting into their base.
The Constitution Party was founded in 1990(As the Taxpayer Party), as part of a broader wave of Right Wing dissatisfaction with the GOP following Bush breaking his 'Read My Lips' promise. While initially working together, the Reform Party faction and Constitution Party factions broke up in 1992. They believe in Christian Nationalism, Hardline Constitutionism, and were the dominant party of the Tea Party bloc. While traditionally considered part of the Big 3, both because they almost always come Third Place and because they can consistently run their own primaries and get their own candidates(Most of the dozen or so active other third parties can't, usually working together as a coalition to nominate a single candidate. Rocky De Le Fuente is a recent example of this), but they're far behind the other two, only getting 1/5th of a percent nationally at best(Though on the state level they've gotten as high as 4%). After rising in the Obama era as a major Tea Party contributor, they've weakened massively following the rightward shift of the GOP and infighting with other small right parties like the AIP(Of George Wallace 'Foreva' fame) or ADP. They've been outperformed by hotshot independents and coalition candidates several times, but most notably in 2020 did worse than the newcomer and potential new '3rd Third'.
The PSL (Party for Socialism and Liberation, or Socialist Liberation Party) is a Communist-Socialist-Marxist party founded in 2004. They are the fastest growing Third Party in the USA. They went from not even being the Top Communist Party in 2008(getting slightly fewer votes than the Socialist Workers Party, who are the second oldest third party active RN dating back to the 1930s and are the second largest communist party here even today), to top of the Communists in 2012, to 5th best overall in 2016(Behind the Big 3 and Evan McMullin) to Top 3 in 2020. They're widely predicted to eclipse the Constitution Party(arguably already have) and get comparable numbers to the Greens in the states they run in. They're also 4th overall in Ballot Access(Behind the Libertarians, Greens, and RFK Jr) this year. Their final totals could be quite close to the Libertarians given how badly they've fallen apart as of late, and between that and Jill Stein's retirement after this election they're set to be the biggest 3rd Party nationally by 2028. They've also gained a reputation for avoiding the purity checks and hardline member stances of the other parties, instead focusing on co-opting and controlling grassroots leftist movements, using on the ground operatives for more media exposure, and absorbing smaller communist parties.
That really only effects the question if Georgia is the last state to matter which is highly unlikely in most scenarios (If it goes Blue it's a 2020 repeat and if it goes Red there's tight races elsewhere to focus on like Arizona and Pennsylvania). Not the question.
If I recall correctly Gore (probably) won with a full state wide recount, but in the counties he asked for he ironically (probably) would have ended up losing. I say probably because both of these are tight enough to be within the margin of error. Or fix the butterfly ballot issue. Of course Gore also only won New Mexico by a 366 votes so who knows what that would have ended up with if either side actually cared(not enough EC to matter if they lost Florida, but still dead close and recounts probably favored Bush).
That doesn't really answer the final question though. Is it going to be called Election Day like 7 of the 11? The day after(or really the morning after) like 2004 or 2016? Is it going to last days like 2020? Or weeks like in 2000?
Off topic, but looking for an active thread.
How long do you think counting will take this year?
Out of the 11 elections in the current (6th) party system, 7 of them were called before midnight on election day. (1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996, 2008, and just barely 2012 although that only just barely got called before midnight). Out of the other 4: 2016 was called about 2 hours after midnight and 2004 was called about 10 hours after midnight(so both the next morning). 2020 took about 3 days to call, albeit there was no concession here so the exact end-time isn't clear. 2000 took over a month infamously.
Every trustworthy non-partison poll in Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina has gone exactly one way. The Wisconsin and Michigan red polls are either old or by very Republican sources, the Blue Georgia poll and dead even North Carolina polls were by Democratic Party sponsors Progress Action and Carolina forward.
Trump couldn't comfortably get above 'dead even' in Wisconsin and Michigan when it was still Biden and he had the shooting bump, just in very right leaning polls like Trafalgar, and now with Walz? Gone. Harris can't get ahead at the near peak of a solid blue wave in the Media outside of known biased pollsters, she isn't taking them in November barring a miracle. Georgia has been a GOP spending ground since they lost it in 2020.
This is going to come down to Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania, and it's going to come down to whether or not Nebraska passes the winner take all law.
Pennsylvania is the single most important. Win it, and you win unless everything else here goes wrong(Nebraska law not in favor, lose Arizona and Nevada, lose one of the 4 probably safe-ish states mentioned above). You wanna win without PA, everything else needs to go right. If Nebraska does pass it's still the most important single state(it plus any other state is a win while Nevada + Arizona isn't) but winning without it becomes plausible albeit it would be a tie.
Also the Ohio thing makes sense when you look at the Senate map. There are exactly two remotely competitive races, Montana and Ohio. Ohio is leaning blue and Montana is leaning red. Picking JD boosts Ohio and Trump is campaigning in Montana right now. Those choices were both made when Biden was still in so seemingly the idea was to secure the Senate and grab an extra seat or two so it's not razor tight and vulnerable to RINOs.
(That's a tie, BTW)
I just heard her speak for the first time today.
Better than Joe, but I don't think she's Obama tier. That man was king of the mic.
A necropsy found that the cub had “blunt force injuries consistent with a motor vehicle collision,” the Department of Environmental Conservation said, but little else was revealed about the mystery.
All I'm gonna say is that if they get this wrong, it's the biggest upset in the betting circuit thus far.
They had Kamala ahead of Biden for a full 5 days prior to him dropping out and she had been solidly second place since the 30th (Newsom initially had a spike, but then fell), trading first place with Biden several times before that final soar.
JD Vance was solidly Top 2 in the Rep VP race from early June onward and was Number 1 most days in July outside of one or two brief Burgum spikes.
They were pretty solid on Trump being the Rep nominee from the start of 2023 onward, only a brief dip around the midterms.
Shapiro has been in the Top 2 solidly since betting opened on the 23rd-24th(And by that time people like Newsom and Whitmer who might have had an early lead had betting opened on the 21st or before Biden dropped had publically said no) and has had an extremely strong lead since the 30th never dropping below 20 points ahead of second place and briefly getting as high as 50 points ahead of everyone else.
There also hasn't been a consistent second place option ala Burgum, Kelly was the other guy to hit first place and traded spots with Shapiro initially, but he tanked horribly on the 30th-31st and never recovered. Beshear has been first once or twice and was a strong 3rd or 4th prior, but he's never gotten to 20% or higher. Same with Buttigieg. Walz is the strongest right now, and he admittedly was handicapped a bit as he didn't get put on the poll until the 31st(His name wasn't on the initial first week list at all and by the time he was popping up hard the betting already opened), but even accounting for that at his best he's never gotten to the level of Mark Kelly pre-30th(who was in the mid 30s point wise peaking at 44%), let alone Shapiro post-30th (who has been anywhere from 55-77%).
read that in a bad Obama impression for some reason...been watching too much jibjab
(Wouldn't be the first time someone just googled Shapiro and got Jovial Josh mixed up with Blitzkrieg Benjamin)
For example, the 2016, 2020, and the pseudo- 2024 Democrat Primaries have shared a significant crowd. People have come and gone(Bernie gave up in 2024. Biden didn't stick in 2016 long due to family issues), but for the most part you'll see the same people. Or the Republicans from 2008-2012, mostly the same guys. Heck, Hillary and Biden, the future nominees, both did really well in 2008, coming second and 3rd(ish) overall. Al Gore had tried prior to Bill getting in. Even way way back you had guys like Henry Clay trying and trying and trying.
But then you compare something like 2012 Republican Primaries to the 2016 Republican Primaries. None of the big names return, no Mitt Romney, no McCain, no Newt Gingrinch, no Rick Sanctorum, no Ron Paul, no Fred Karger. The ONLY returnee at all out of like 15-20 serious contenders was Rick Perry, who was a minor nominee that dropped out early both times. The big 5 or big 6 or even big 7 were completely different.
