Best-case scenario [model]: 5% [would] survive Milford Sound tsunami
Best-case scenario [model]: 5% [would] survive Milford Sound tsunami
New research shows that a tsunami in Milford Sound could leave no survivors, making it New Zealand's worst disaster.
A recent Master's thesis has found a Milford Sound tsunami - triggered by a landslide - may leave no survivors, with as many as 3500 dying if the wave hits during the peak of the tourist season.
The new modelling, which builds on more than a decade of research, shows the best chance of survival relies on people running for higher ground before the shaking stops.
The best-case scenario shows 5.2 percent of people would survive the wave, and in this case the tsunami would have to hit at night, during the winter offseason, when only a few hundred people would be in the area.
Edited title to make it sound less like there was just a tsunami and everyone died.
Alright, well I’ll cross that place off my rental search list.
Scary, yes. But it's funny really in some regards, when you think about our tolerance to risk - I live practically on top of the Alpine Fault yet barely give it a second thought. And we're up in Auckland for the weekend - I was surprised to discover that Rangitoto Island is only 600 years old - 2M+ people living 'on' a barely dormant volcano is kinda terrifying.
I'm sure there's a name for the formal Fallacy that applies here - Acceptable Risk maybe?
Well, I guess when you size up the risk it may not actually be that high compared to everyday activities. What's the risk of being killed in a car crash vs a volcanic eruption happening on Rangitoto over the course of a lifetime?
Hubris
Oh thank god, I seriously misinterpreted that headline.