Ireland, Spain and Norway have announced plans to formally recognize a Palestinian state next week, in a move that is likely to bolster the global Palestinian cause but cause further strain in relations between Europe and Israel.
From the FT story about this, it appears the Israeli far right is going to respond with more repression:
Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, on Wednesday wrote to Netanyahu, demanding “punitive steps” be against the Palestinian Authority in response to the European decisions and other Palestinian moves on the international stage, including seeking action against the Jewish state by the ICC.
Smotrich called for a series of measures including a major expansion of Jewish settlement construction in the occupied West Bank, the establishment of a new settlement for every country that recognises Palestinian statehood, and the freezing of Israeli tax transfers to the PA.
Norway’s not in the EU, so the US, UK and other nations can impose punitive sanctions on them in response. Ireland and Spain are harder to deal with. I imagine Germany will be applying a lot of pressure within EU mechanisms.
Germany does not yet recognize Palestine as an independent state, but an independent Palestinian state within the framework of a two-state solution has long been a firm goal of German foreign policy.
I highly doubt those three countries care enough about the recognition to pick a fight with their own allies. Israel would go for it in a heartbeat, but it doesn't have the teeth.