With U.S. aid still stalled and its army at a breaking point, Ukraine warns: We will lose
With U.S. aid still stalled and its army at a breaking point, Ukraine warns: We will lose
Ukraine has been left exposed on the front lines — running out of ammunition and men — while its energy system now faces an onslaught that is exposing its depleted air defenses.
This is sending a giant red flag to America's allies: we will not support you in times of war, do not rely on us since we will drop you whenever it is politically convenient to do so.
Sadly, this shouldn't be the case and it's indicating an abdication of responsibility in being the Arsenal of Democracy for the free world.
I think a lot of people forget how before the war, but after the 2014 annexure, Ukraine begged to be able to buy western weapons, such as the javelin, because one random guy can take out a whole tank (great force multipliers against the russian bear). Great deterrent. But they were not approved because they fought giving arms for Ukraine would provoke and not deter, and that dialog and greater economic integration with Russia would be the solution.
So the west miscalculated, luckily Russia as well and Kiev did not fall, but now Ukraine is in a war, and unlike previously where they could have put resources into acquiring western weapons, they now have to input their resources into fighting and defending their country.
The EU and America have stepped up initially, like 90% of the pledges went straight back into the American economy, since the give Ukraine their old stock and manufacture replacement stock for themselves. EU is close to matching USAs total contributions and if you look at France and their economy's size they are percentage wise out spending the US in contributions.
The nice thing here is most support money gets spend in their own country, stimulating their economy, Ukraine is putting their own citizens and soldiers life on the line and it will weaken a common Nato foe. But not supporting Ukraine will emboldened Russia and now that most of their military ineptitude and corruption has been exposed and is being improved, Russia might calculate further expansion, since that is their modus operandi.
Thing is, even with the massive influx of weapons, Ukraine is going to face a severe risk of mutiny and exhaustion because they just don't have enough people to rotate through the front lines.
Even with the recent news of the expanded draft, the AFU just recently ended the service limit for conscripts and is still outnumbered by Russian troops on the front line.
Either Ukraine will have to extend the draft further, seriously hindering their economy, or another country will have to get involved directly. France was supposedly considering deploying troops to the Ukrainian-Belorussian border to free up troops to fight in the East, but that clearly isn't coming to fruition (yet?).
The opportunity for Ukraine to get any kind of decisive victory and a decent peace deal was within the first year of the war. Russia was always going to have time on their side.
I bet as people die, the amount of weapons needed to fight Russia increases. There will be a point of no return.
Nearly every country dragged its heels.
RepubliQans! MFrs
This is the best summary I could come up with:
The shortages forced Kyiv’s military to withdraw from a key eastern city in February, and with no progress in Washington, Ukrainian soldiers are now desperately trying to hold on to their positions along some 600 miles of the front line.
Ukrainian leaders, backed up by Western officials, are pushing Republicans to break the logjam before it is too late, fearing the Kremlin could seek to take advantage by launching a new offensive over the summer or sooner.
He told Congress that Ukraine will run out of artillery shells and air defense interceptors “in fairly short order” without new U.S. support, leaving it vulnerable to a partial or total defeat.
Russia has turned its attention back to Ukraine’s energy grid, striking key facilities in missile and drone attacks that have exploited a shortage of air defense systems across the country.
Zelenskyy said last week he was still hopeful for a “positive vote” in Congress, and even suggested that Kyiv would be willing to get the aid in the form of a loan rather than a handout, an idea floated by House Republicans that seemingly originated with Trump.
Just six months out from the U.S. election, the possibility that Trump could cut off Ukraine completely or try to force it to cede territory as part of a truce deal with Russia may be focusing minds in Kyiv.
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