Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win
Russia’s economy is now completely driven by the war in Ukraine – it cannot afford to lose, but nor can it afford to win
Western military support for Ukraine is more important than ever.
Cross-posted from: https://feddit.de/post/9438338
Military pay, ammunition, tanks, planes, and compensation for dead and wounded soldiers, all contribute to the GDP figures. Put simply, the war against Ukraine is now the main driver of Russia’s economic growth.
And it is a war that Russia cannot afford to win. The cost of rebuilding and maintaining security in a conquered Ukraine would be too great, and an isolated Russia could at best hope to become a junior partner entirely dependent on China.
This feels like the aside in Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy about the planet that became economically incapable of building anything but shoe stores, but if it was written by the Orks from 40k.
but if it was written
But if it were* written
https://www.grammarly.com/blog/conditional-sentences-was-instead-of-were/
Russia has managed to switch to war economy, that is not really good news for Europe.
How long Russia can maintain it is another question. When most of your produce is intended to get destroyed in near future with nothing in return, you're basically throwing money out of the window.
If you win the war, you can get a lot in return. That is why countries do it. Permanent access to ressources, people, strategic locations...
The difficulty is switching back though. That's why it is so dangerous. Getting locked in a war economy requires to attack ever new targets, deepening the hole.
When most of your produce is intended to get destroyed in near future with nothing in return, you’re basically throwing money out of the window.
That's kind of how war economy works. For me it looks more and more, like we are approaching a full on war against Russia (completely surreal to me, since I was born in Russia).
It isn't good news for Russia either.
It's much worse news for Russia. Total war is impossible to sustain for a people, as attacker: If the home front is completely mobilised for war there's nothing left to fight for in terms of home and culture and even politics, the only source of morale left is survival, and as the attacker Russia doesn't have that, on the contrary it plays against them as they'd all get to survive splendidly by simply retreating to their borders.
OTOH, from the fascist's POV it's all so very inviting: Only war? How splendid! Then we don't actually have to have a culture or politics, that's nice, we don't like that degeneracy anyway.
It seems that Putin read his Clausewitz and then thought "Oh that silly old Prussian goose, what does he know, Hitler knew better he just got too greedy".
Also have you any idea what it would look like if the EU switched to a war economy. Fully, that is, not like into 1/2th gear (which we're getting close to). Germany+France+Italy alone have 10x Russia's GDP.
The first hit on NATO-soil will change the lame economical stance of Europe. Not good news for Ukraine sadly as NATO until then will be dragging its feet. I don't understand why.
Because Ukraine is not in NATO?
Sounds like the lead up to the plot of Metal Gear Solid 4, where the world's economy is driven by war.
But without nanomachines and robots =/
*Yet
They got lost in the sauce 💀
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So Russia is prime for invasion? The US always needs oil.