Is global heating accelerating?
Is global heating accelerating?
Data from Climate Reanalyzer says that daily sea surface temperatures for January 2024 are higher than they were in January 2023.
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While it is possible we hit an unknown and unmodeled tipping point, until we get conformation as to what caused the vast shift in the last year it’s still possible it is temporary and we’ll fall back down to the temperature increases we’ve seen up until this point.
Not that it really matters, seeing as what we need to be done doesn’t change with how high it gets.
Doesn’t help that El Niño is currently in effect, with the next several seasons predicted to be affected by it. Muddies the data, so to speak.
Yeah, but some of those previous years had El Niño too and they're waaaay down below the 2023 and 2024 lines.
Precisely. A lot of them! El nino is not rare
It’s very much the case that El Niño is affecting our perception right now, but La Niña is believed to be making a comeback in a few months.
Then again, that’s not exactly good news. Hurricanes, drought…yay.
This is pure hopium. The science heavily suggests that what you're pitching will not occur.
I’m honestly curious, what science suggests that our current climate models and projected warming are so widely off base?
Our measured data suggests that El Niño is only really a small variation in the rising trend of temperatures. In this diagram, you can see El Niño years as early spikes, of what would become the La Niña plateau a few years later:
2023, as determined by the same organisation and with the same reference temperature, is at +1.2°C. Source
As such, it does somewhat jump beyond the trend so far, but so did 2016, and the hopes that 2016 was just a temporary high, that's now definitely been crushed by 2023.
That's why it would make sense, if it's actually already accelerating. That would explain why we're repeatedly seeing new highs by ever bigger margins...Except according to that diagram 2016 was a temporary high, as we not only saw colder years since but the temperature tended to hover around the 2016 level, not constantly increasing at the 2015 to 2016 rate. If 2016 is a precedent, that than precedent is that the temperature should hover around 2023 levels for the next decade or so, not continue to increase at the same rate as we saw in 2023.
Oh, yeah, that's what I meant to say. Non-temporary high, as in absolute temperatures. I guess, I missed that you said "temperature increases" in your initial comment...
