yea your luck modifier decreases after you get lucky, but it resets each day. just only play blackjack on high luck days and only once each day. i recommend downloading a mod to show an icon when you are having a good luck day. also carry a rabbit's foot and eat luck increasing food
"Did you install a mod before walking into my Casino? I can tell."
A rabbit foot doesn't actually increase your luck stat, but can be traded for a wallet item that permanently give +1 luck
dang no wonder i keep losing then
Also yes, a casino will give you a hundred billion dollars if you win enough because they are bound by the rules of the shadow games
if the pitboss asks you to leave after winning, you are legally allowed to shadow realm them for disrespecting the heart of the cards
“The arc of history bends towards the gambler.”
-The Dark Cowboy
I constantly say this quote to people around me as if they'd know it. It's just a good quote.
Marx: a coat is worth a combination of a roll of linen and the labor put into manufacture
Liberalism: the richest person on earth is worth 32 instances of hitting 21 baby
Probability understander has entered the chat
I at first thought your profile picture was the man in the image.
I mean he seems about as dumb as two hammers, but a lot less useful
I don't think this person understands how gambling, casinos or the passage of time work.
I used to work in customer support taking phone calls. I once chatted with an older bloke from somewhere in USA who claimed to have made a living playing poker, never having had a real job.
He said "You don't even have to be good at poker. You just have to be better than the people you are playing with."
Wild.
I knew a couple that did that, old hippies and math geniuses, they raised a kid and have a pretty nice house. It's basically sticking to a formula that eeks you out a bit of profit over a long period. It seems worse than working a real job to me.
Any time I find myself in a casino it's the only thing I do, I almost always win some money but I can't imagine relying on something like that for actual income. I've heard many stories of people having mental breakdowns during extended cold streaks.
Counterpoint for live poker specifically - it's incredibly cathartic taking a whole bunch of money from an obnoxious trust fund kid.
It's true. There was a short time in the early 2000s where playing online with even a vague knowledge of stats (or a calculator) and a conservative playstyle could net you a very comfortable living.
Then the bots started. But it was fun.
Yup, it's the only game at a casino where you can have positive EV (other than some rare exceptions like counting cards at blackjack and such). But you don't just have to be better than people around you, you have to be better enough to overcome the rake.
it's interesting to track the evolution of poker strategy over the decades, slowly changing from a vibe-based stylistic approach to a rigorous statistical one, then over the last few years shifting to mostly studying solvers.
You should check out Why do I choose this for a living
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poker has an element of competitive skill, and also since you're playing against other gamblers and not the house, you're not gonna get ejected for winning.
This is even crazier than the 10,000 tomatoes guy
as long as i play the games really slowly it doesn't seem that hard
if my back of the napkin math is correct, you have less than a 1 in a 50 million chance of winning 32 hands of blackjack in a row, and that is assuming the very very optimistic odds of 50% per hand. But really it should be lower odds than that.
But did you take into account that there is at least 24 hours between each win?
No. Silly me.
Isn't it roughly 1 in 4 billion chance? 1/2^32?
you're definitely closer to correct than I was. it's whatever this number is as a percentage: 0.000000000232830643654 = (or 2.32830643654e-10)
No? I think you're not very good at maths. The chances are 50%, because you'll either win or lose
so true bestie
but I don't think the odds of winning are fifty-fifty. every card dealt changes the odds that you'll win based upon how many later cards could have you win, as well as the rest of the table/dealer winning first. Say you get a face-value card first. you odds of winning are pretty good, as you can get really close to 21 without busting with whatever your next card is, there are 11 cards that could make you a lock on victory the next round, so the odds of winning in two rounds are 12/52 times 11/50. But, someone else could also get those two cards theoretically, and their odds are 11/51 times 10/50. but in actuality, your odds change when they get these cards, so i you both get face-value cards on the first deal the odds you' both get them the second deal are 12/52 time 10/50 and 11/51 times 9/49 respectively. Then either you bust first or get an ace. The odds of getting an ace are 4/48 at this point. meanwhile, the odds of busting are 44/48. so all in all, the odds of winning a perfect game would be 12/52 times 11/50 times 4/48, which equals a 0.423(rounded) percent chance. That is just one way to win, obviously, but my point is that the game is not 50/50, but a complex interaction of different probabilities.
okay, now do the odds of winning 1 hand 32 seperate times
I think to properly calculate this, we'd have to work out every possible winning hand in blackjack, then work out the probability for each one individually coming up in a game. There's a more annoying question of how likely you are to win by not busting while others do, which makes the question unanswerable so we'd have to put in stock variable to work through it with.
This is the most I have thought about math in years and I'm surprised I can actually work it out somewhat.
But if you lose even once, you're fucked.
Just bet on literally everything possible and you'll come up rich as hell.
Disclaimer: I once applied for a job that was at a place that had a financial planning department somewhere in the building.
Nah the reply is pretty smart if you're a Divination Wizard with the Lucky feat, since your Portents and Luck points reset upon a long rest.
what if i have negative net worth?
I think currently I'm sitting like -$40k or so and I'm doing better than most americans
Life pro tip: if you bet -$40k and lose, you're $40k richer
Lmao gambling is oldest grift in the book
I love it when people think they can trick math like this “hahaha math is a sucker, it doesn’t even know that I did a statistical event detached from the statistical event I’m about to do”
Why yes, I roll my ttrpg dice multiple times between actions to prime the rng generator for a good roll.
Odds are a little 'noisier' , this is some clean baby theoretical stuff, also if you win like that just twice they start getting real suspicious too, no way are you making it to the full 32.
Does anyone know the maximum return on investment in a standard blackjack hand, and the typical number of players in a round?
I am not looking for a world where I am "the statistical probability of winning 32 hands of blackjack in a row" away from Elon Musk. I am looking for one where I am "The amount of time it takes to play 32 hands of blackjack" away from him.
