Missiles and Momentum in Ukraine

This is the best summary I could come up with:

On October 13, Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vasily Nebenzya, said that “the so-called Ukrainian counteroffensive can be considered finished” with nothing to show for it but tens of thousands of dead recruits and that Russia had “launched active combat operations along the entire frontline.” (Nebenzya also accused the West of feeding more weapons to Ukraine “like drugs to a drug addict, thus prolonging his agony.”) Two days later, Nebenzya’s boss Vladimir Putin weighed in with his own assertion that the Ukrainian counteroffensive had “failed completely” but, confusingly, added that “the opposing side” was planning new offensive operations in some areas and described the Russian troops’ operations as “active defense,” without explaining how that differs from plain and simple defense.

Then, after two more days, on October 17, Russia got an unpleasant surprise when Ukraine delivered powerful strikes at targets in occupied territories, in Berdyansk and Luhansk, hitting military airports and weapons depots.

Thus ends a prolonged will-they-or-won’t-they saga in which reports last September that Zelensky’s request for the long-range missiles would not be granted during his visit to Washington, D.C. were followed by a quick reversal, albeit not officially announced.

Putin, on his visit to Beijing, predictably claimed that the ATACMS would not help Ukraine but also made a weird invitation to President Joe Biden to take them back and come over to Russia for “tea and pancakes” instead.

Appearing on the 60 Minutes program on Channel One with the husband-and-wife team of Olga Skabeyeva and Yevgeny Popov, retired Russian colonel and TV pundit Mikhail Khodaryonok candidly admitted that if ATACMS strikes continued, this could make it much harder for Russia to use its military aircraft to stymie Ukrainian offensive operations by strafing tanks and armored personnel vehicles.

Pro-Ukraine commentators who are critical of the slow pace of Western weapons deliveries, such as Russian expatriate journalist Yulia Latynina, have been asking why the ATACMS were not in place before the start of the spring/summer counteroffensive, which would have likely ensured far more impressive successes.

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