If Neelix had been truthful about rescuing Kes and they simply beamed her out instead would the caretaker probe still have been attacked by the Kazon?
I have't seen "Caretaker" in a good minute, but they still needed to rescue Kim and Torres from the same planet. So, plot-wise, there probably still would have been an encounter with the Kazon, and they still would have gone back to the Array to see if it could get them home (and the Kazon would probably have still investigated that).
I would guess, anyway. Like I said, memory's a bit hazy as I haven't seen that episode in a while.
Kim and Torres were guests of the Ocampa, and Kess knew how to get in and out of the shielded area. The Kazon were in the area but not directly involved yet.
So by beaming her up immediately, they would have had far more time available to do thing.
Now, whether they ask the right questions quickly enough to get in and out of the caves/cracks Kess got out through, who's to say.
Either way, if I recall correctly, the kazon knew not to fuck with the Caretakers station, so while I'm sure they would eventually have tested it to see if anyone was still home, it wouldn't have been as quick.
Ultimately I believe if Neelix had been truthful, the crew would have had enough time to figure out how to send themselves back to the alpha quadrant, and possibly been smart enough to set spatial charges to blow it up soon after they left to make sure the kazon don't get their hands on it.