Why Ukraine Still Isn’t About to Lose
Why Ukraine Still Isn’t About to Lose
Why Ukraine Still Isn’t About to Lose
It hardly seemed like good news for Ukraine when Donald Trump won in November, but the reality has been worse than most expected. While pursuing a thus-far illusory Russia/Ukraine cease-fire, Trump labeled Volodymyr Zelenskyy a “dictator,” embraced Vladimir Putin’s version of the war’s history, demanded that Ukraine hand over much of its mineral wealth, and castigated Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. Yet as the U.S. pulls back from its role as Ukraine’s central backer and Europe struggles to fill that void, the actual battlefield in Ukraine has not changed very much. Given the international headwinds, can this equilibrium last much longer? To get a picture of the military and political reality in Ukraine and what the rest of 2025 may bring, I called Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment, whom I have spoken with several times since Russia launched its full-scale invasion three years