Let them fight.

nato going to war with israel is too funny to come true

That's the problem with founding a state based on genocide and ethnic cleansing. When you've convinced yourself that you're literally doing the will of God, when are you actually "done" with God's work? Just how big is the "Jewish homeland" supposed to be? The Torah said that Yahweh gave the ancient Israelites all the land from the Nile to the Euphrates. A fundamentalist Zionist can justify, based on a direct religious reference, that Israel can rightfully expand that far based on the direct word of God. And God never said the Israelis couldn't conquer more land beyond those bounds. It's a recipe for self-destructive never-ending conflict.

Israel's MO is pretty obvious at this point:

1. Antagonize your neighbors just over the border until they start attacking you back.
2. When your neighbors retaliate against your harassment and violence, send in the military to secure a "buffer zone," billed as a demilitarized zone like the Korean DMZ. Say you can't have Jews and Arabs living right next door to each other, so a buffer is needed.
3. Once the buffer zone is established, let Jewish settlers in to build towns and cities in what was supposed to be an empty safety buffer.
4. After a few years, Jews and Arabs are once again on each other's doorstep.
5. Start again antagonizing the neighbors (who are usually the same people you displaced a generation ago.)

This has been Israel's strategy for decades. They've seized "buffer zone" after "buffer zone." They let their people move into the buffer zone, and then suddenly they don't have a buffer zone anymore. They use their own civilian population as human shields, putting them in a position where they are guaranteed to be attacked by angry people the Israeli government and settler forces are continually antagonizing. Then when they're inevitably attacked, that can be used to justify expanding the borders even further. Oh, and none of their neighbors can resist this process through direct military action, as Israel has a nuclear arsenal. No one can afford to get in a total war with Israel.

I really don't know where this ends. At this point I think the best thing for Mideast peace would be the Iranians, Egyptians, or Turks getting a nuclear weapon themselves. The only thing that's going to stop the never-ending drive for Israeli lebensraum is if they expand until they're up against someone too tough for them to boss around. And that's probably going to need to be a country that is themselves a nuclear power.

The other problem with this expansion is that it gets baked into the Israeli society and economy. It's a bit like what happened with ancient Rome. Their whole economy became dependent on this process of expanding, conquering peoples, subjugating and enslaving them, etc. They had to keep expanding just to keep their economy running. They paid their retired veterans with stolen land. The only way you can keep that model going is by expanding forever. And eventually they expanded beyond what they could manage. The same thing is happening in Israel. They have whole sectors of their economy dependent on this process of expansion and settlement. At this point, even if they wanted to, they can't just say, "ok, we've expanded enough. These are our fixed borders now and forever." They can't do that without collapsing the part of their economy that is dependent on selling and developing all the land they take. They can't have peace without causing a massive recession. They've become addicted to stealing land.

Turkey, the NATO member?

I need someone to explain Turkey to me

Maybe I'm wrong, but Israel has struggled to fight against some pretty under equipped forces. Turkey would demolish them. The only thing that might save them is the fact Turkey wont want to make America mad, and turning Israel into dust wouldn't be a popular move among the west.

With the protests there tho this might be exactly what Erdogan needs to get people behind him. Since if he gave Israel a bloody nose his people would love it. Kinda makes me think this is staged tbh. So he can look like hes standing up to Israel, and get his domestic situation under control.

Israel and Turkey exist in a symbiotic relationship. Both act as pressure valves for the other. It is no coincidence that Turkey and Israel clashing over Syrian territory comes at the very moment both regimes are under existential threat from their citizenry.

Statescraftsmen on both sides have a shared interest in escalating the situation within a demilitarised common neighbour. If the situation gets too hot, both sides are able to withdraw within their "sovereign" borders.

Both sides also have a vested interest in mitigating the conflict. Neither side wants a direct war, or a war that becomes so expensive and bloody that the benefits of fighting it become moot. The odd bombing of either side's trenches with a loud warning beforehand is likely the kind of "fighting" we'll see, just as Russia and Turkey interacted in thsi theatre for years before.

Turkey has the domestic benefits of:

• Being seen as "stabilising" Syria, thus allowing millions of refugees to return. This has caused economic and social pressures for all of Syria's neighbours.
• Dismantling Kurdish and politically-radical communities on the border of Turkish territories which were in open rebellion up until a few years ago at the latest.
• Expanding the borders of Turkey towards the irredentist goal of a "neo-Ottoman" empire.

Israel has the domestic benefits of:

• Denying Iran a land route to supplying Hezbollah with military supplies needed to recover from the 2024 invasion. This helps ensure the balance of power in Lebanon is as much in favour of the Government/Army as possible.
• Establishing fire control and reconnaissance over souther hours Lebanon and Syria via Mount Hermon. This is necessary to fulfill the goal of returning Israeli IDPs into settlements near the Lebanese border.
• Cheaply dismantling Syrian military infrastructure to permanently deter opposition to Israeli military goals in the future. Such as maintaining a neutral buffer state for Israeli warplanes to traverse to attack Iran from the north.
• Expanding the borders of Israel towards the irredentist goal of a "Greater Israel".

Both states are invested in turning Syria into their shared battleground for as long as possible, and if anything this began long before Assad's government collapsed.

becoming

Article 5! Article 5! Article 5!

Every day I keep hoping Israel steps on a rake but expecting nothing, and every day I become more disappointed despite expecting nothing.