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'The most economically illiterate speech I have ever heard', analyst says • FRANCE 24 English

FRANCE 24's Sharon Gaffney speaks to Scott Lucas, professor of US and International Politics at the Clinton Institute at University College Dublin, about the tariffs unveiled by Donald Trump. He says that Trump's announcement on tariffs was filled with lies and distortions and it was the 'dumbest and most economically illiterate speech I have ever heard'. #Trump #trade #tariffs

21 comments
  • The man thinks like a toddler. "If I put tariffs on goods from other countries, other countries will have to pay to do business here and America will become rich, we are the biggest market so they have to live with what we demand"

    He doesn't think the rest of the world can stand without them or he doesn't think that reciprocal tariffs will hurt America as bad as they hurt us.

    First every company has a cost to produce goods. Typically they cannot go below this. That means putting the tariffs on finished products means the only way non US companies can continue to sell in the USA AND pay the tariff, is to raise the price to the US buyer. If the buyer is the consumer then shit , things get more expensive. If the buyer is a manufacturer based in the USA buying components from abroad, then they have to spend more to built the product, I.e their cost goes up and, shit, things get more expensive. That means the consumer gets hurt or the USA business swallow some of the pain but ultimately both get hurt, because the cost of the goods may become prohibitively expensive reducing the demand. Manufacturing overhead increases as a result so either the company has to fire the newly idle staff or the price goes up. Price goes up and fewer sell again and it gets stuck in a death loop for the business unless it is an essential product that people have no choice but to pay for.

    Now the other side of it is that he thinks that imposing the tariffs mean everyone in the USA will buy American and it will be good for American business. Except the USA doesn't make everything it needs nor can it, at least in the short term. It is not simply a matter of switching suppliers to USA suppliers on the 5th of April. It is a matter of there being no alternative. Any prospective USA based supplier would have to set up a factory, tool up and gain experience in the manufacture of every tyoe of product all of which takes months if not years. Or foreign companies have to establish manufacturer at the cost of millions in a highly volatile country where the rules change on a daily basis. Also any company from overseas is at risk of having any employees who are not white Americans being detained or deported by ICE. Not what could be called a safe bet, or good investment Either way, by the time US suppliers come online the businesses that rely on those parts will very likely have gone under through the increased costs levied on them.

    In the mean time, the world outside America is bigger. It will hurt us too, but I expect trade barriers to come down in the rest of the world and non-US manufacturers will be able to find alternative suppliers to the US ones they may currently use.

    I was thinking devices like iPhones may become too expensive for people outside the US until I remembered they aren't manufactured in America, but with all the boycotts which will be exacerbated by reciprocal tariffs, I expect business is going to become very hard for American companies outside the USA.

    If I were an American company right now I would be seriously evaluating moving outside the USA. Losing the US market is less harmful than losing the ROTW markets.

    At the end of the day, there is an arrogance in these tariffs that says the world needs American goods and services more than America needs the world's goods and that we will cave before America. We all crave our McDonald's and Coke and Netflix and Teslas so bad that we'll give in and play by trumps rules. He thinks that there will be short term pain for long term gain for the USA, but I think it will be like that for the rest of the world and America is in for long term pain.

    Ultimately America won't be the biggest market very soon, because buying power is going to go off a cliff and I think for Americans, it's going so stay down there. There will probably come a course correction in a few months time when the pain has become so bad for Americans that they demand heads roll. When that happens I don't think the ROTW is going to just say all is forgiven and go back to how things were. More likely this will cause lasting damage to the US and it's businesses and the rest of the world will adapt to avoid working with an unstable partner.

21 comments