Pretend it never happened
Pivot to China
Additionally/Alternatively they might also slander the shit out of Ukraine and say they misused and abused the wests supplies and it was all their own incompetence that cause them to loose. This will probably be used to justify the continued rejection from them joining NATO.
The Western Allies will suddenly remember how corupt Ukraine is.
Especially that they really do misuse and embezzle those supplies, especially money and smaller things like medicines, small arms, etc. though even if they did not they would still didn't win the war.
Of course they will do this. NATO isn't for losers. If Ukraine wanted in, they needed to win. It's not a pity party for Zelenskyy.
They did this to their old allies in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria. Just threw them to the wolves when they no longer were useful. They don't give a shit. Americans will use you and toss you like a rag.
Russia may win this war in the conventional sense. They may take Kiev, install a Russia-friendly government, and even have military forces occupying the country to keep the terrorists from simply walking in and overthrowing them. But the West will do all they can to spread civil unrest in the populace, to get them to side with the russophobes, to fund and arm those russophobes, and to recreate this same model in all of Russia's neighboring countries. I'm not sure you can actually "win" the style of war the imperialists wage nowadays unless the imperialists lose wholesale. If the US and its lackeys keep channeling their propaganda in a region, keep throwing their money in a region, keep arming fascists in a region, then you have an infection you can't control. And if you crack down and secure it, it makes your liberalized population sympathetic to the fascists because they can't see or comprehend the threat to their sovereignty or lives. This is the game the West plays and has played for decades, and I don't think its going to end until the head is cut off the snake and the fascists are cut off from their platforms and funding.
Of course, everyone here knows this. How this is going to turn out for Ukraine, who can say? The terrorists might slip the leash and attack Europe, immediately turning everyone off from the whole thing and giving Russia a needed reprieve. I suspect Russia may win the war, but the peace will be a grueling and draining affair for years, until the US is forced to divert resources elsewhere and the fascists are forced to go underground as their funding dries up.
It's a mistake to focus on Ukraine as the core of the conflict. Geopolitical outcome of the war is far more relevant. We're seeing much of the world turning away from the west now, and BRICS is already a larger economy than the G7. The trend will be for western economic bloc to shrink and for BRICS to grow. This will cause a deep economic crisis in the west, and I'd argue we're already seeing the start of it happening. Current political system in the west is already unstable, and I don't think it will survive the crisis.
Meanwhile, Russia doesn't have to take all of Ukraine. An alternative scenario to consider is that Russia takes the territory that's largely populated by Russian speakers where there will be little support for any kind of insurgency. They will likely cut off remaining rump state of Ukraine from the sea by going through Odessa and connecting to Transnistria.
The remaining territory of Ukraine will be cut off from most of the industrial and agricultural areas, and it's populated by hardcore nationalists who will be very bitter with the west abandoning them. If the west allows western Ukraine fail then Europe will be faced with a flood of refugees feeding further into the current economic crisis. However, continuing propping western Ukraine up will become an economic black hole for the west.
I expect there's going to be a massive political upheaval in Europe, and possibly in US as well. Losing the war will be the backdrop for the economic crash that western economies are now entering. People were sold on a quick war that was supposed to secure western dominance over the world. There wasn't supposed to be any significant economic blowback in the west, but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.
The west will see itself deeply humiliated, they will have to come to terms with the fact that majority of the world does not stand with the west and actively resents western system. This is going to be a hard pill to swallow for people who've been taught all their lives that they're cream of the crop of humanity.
The big question is where the west is headed once the current system implodes. Unfortunately, all the indicators are that western countries are increasingly flirting with fascism and the right is growing rapidly. Unless the left becomes a lot better at organizing and recruiting, we'll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly.
yeah, they're not gonna come to terms with the rest of the world having real people. they're gonna go full fascist and blame the usual suspects for this loss, and try to take as many people with them in their suicidal death drive as they can.
I definitely expect the west to embrace fascism because that's the natural evolution of the capitalist system in a crisis. The problem the west has right now is that it allowed itself to be deindustrialized, and it's heavily dependent on the rest of the world for a lot of essentials. This problem doesn't really have an easy solution as you can't just flip a switch and create a domestic industrial economy out of the whole cloth. And as western influence continues to shrink the west will loose access to cheap commodities they've been extracting from the rest of the world. We're seeing a perfect example of this happening with Niger asserting its sovereignty and kicking France out. All of a sudden France lost access to effectively free uranium that it was robbing Niger of. Having to deal with other countries on equal terms means higher input prices for western industries, and that will only heighten the economic crisis.
we'll likely see full blown fascism taking hold shortly
With a real possibility it'll be followed eventually by nuclear war
Entirely likely unfortunately.
The left recently won in Slovakia on an anti-Ukraine war platform. It can be done, we're not doomed to fascism. Western and especially European Leftists need to stop being chauvinist succs and actually oppose the imperialist Ukraine War, then they have a chance of taking power. They're losing their window and the fascists are a couple steps ahead. Come on EU leftists, it's time to get serious. You are in Germany 1935.
Yeah, it's not all lost yet for sure. The left really does need to shape up fast though. I think the key reason the right is becoming so popular is precisely because they were the only ones who took an anti war position from the start. The left shat the bed by aligning with liberals.
but now people are increasingly connecting the war with their declining standard of living. This is now translating into a political backlash against the people who championed the war.
Could you elaborate on this? I dont follow. How is our standaed of living connected to this war?
The most obvious way is that productive resources are being directed towards Ukraine rather then being invested domestically. For example, if a country chooses so open a factory to produce artillery shells instead of building hospitals, then this has an impact on the standard of living. The less direct impact comes from the economic war with Russia where western economies are starting see sever economic blowback. Europe in particular has seen a huge increase in energy prices, and this translates into the economic problems we're currently seeing. The rise of BRICS and dedollarization also have an impact as this shrinks dollar based economy.
How is our standaed of living connected to this war?
In the EU at least, believe me we're fucking feeling it (in energy and fuel prices, which are themselves impacting food prices, etc.). Though the war isn't the only factor of course.
I saw things immediately shoot up in price when I go out to get groceries. What might have cost me €20 just 2 years ago, often now steps above €30. The lack of Russian-produced foodstuffs (which were often cheaper) also means there's no competition.
In contrast, the wages have had less of an effect than trying to divert an EF-5 tornado with your jizz.
I wonder if destroying the nordstream pipelines and the cheap natural gas from Russia has any impact on the EU economy and electricity prices, and the resulting de-industrialization? How about the massive unprecedented sanctions on one of the largest resource exporters on Earth? How about the destruction of the grain production center of Europe and the associated infrastructure and ports? This is all not even taking into consideration the global de-dollarization move that is making non-western countries increasingly sovereign and able to resist western neo-colonialism, which increases prices for those in the core as it gets harder to extract from their colonies.
Oh yeah, and sending several hundred billion dollars to Ukraine to get blown up instead of using that money on domestic development. China could have made a thousand new factories with the money that the west has squandered in Ukraine.
gas prices went up $2/gal last year. they came down some over time, but i mean, there's an example
USA accepts the end of their hegemony like a good sport.
Lmao.
USA v. China suicide charge. Maybe some bullying of Mexico. And then the imperialism will have absolutely no options but to turn inward. And this desecrated land will bleed itself until all the toxins are expelled.
I think Russia's fate depends a lot on how they choose to proceed independently of external forces. It really will be a toss up between decaying into an imperialist power, or a reinstatement of the socialist Union.
I do find it concerning how pretty much every presidential candidate is running on the promise of going to war with somebody in the near future. Either Russia, China or Mexico. Maybe some more incursions into Africa in the mean time.
regardless which side wins, ukraine is going to be THE place to set up industries to exploit cheap labour in europe.
I expect a lot of child exploitation.
the bread and butter of western economy
- Like a true loser the US and UK will make it seem like they left of their own accord.
- Half of Ukraine will be a Russian-controlled oblast.
- Europe moves on, and increasingly allies with China and Russia over the US, and accepts the new oblast.
Like a true loser the US and UK will make it seem like they left of their own accord.
If Vietnam is any indication, they will pretend they left of their own accord, but will also perpetrate a stab-in-the back myth: "those damn tankies and Russia dupes sold out America and our Ukrainian allies!" Eventually, the war will be impossible to discuss, because the only accepted narrative will be that we won and lost at the same time.
Doublethink, one might even call it.
europe going full fascist once again, with the excuse they need to defend themselves from "soviet union"
Combine all the fallout of the collapse of democratic Afghanistan and the seething anger from Vietnam
seething anger from Vietnam
Except this time I hope the veterans actually get spit on.
It really depends on the terms of the loss. There’s the potential for stabbed in the back anger from the Nazis there that turns violent against Western Europe, there’s also the possibility that’s avoided and instead they conduct decades of terrorist attacks against Russia with the west’s continued support.
I’m somewhat doubtful Zelensky will be reasonable, so Russia may have to choose between a costly offensive that takes Kiev and chases the government to the west while degrading it or a frozen conflict with Donbas and other newly Russian regions under Russian control but disputed and not recognized as such in the west or by Ukraine. Because Zelensky knows he’ll have a chopper and a plane waiting for him even if Kiev falls whereas if he negotiates the Nazis there or the CIA will kill him.
We’re already seeing fascists in the European Union and NATO calling for more expansion eastward and calling it imperative and a necessity. So I suspect color revolution attempts in CIS countries like Georgia, the -stans. They’ve already pulled shit in Armenia. The goal being to distract and overcome Russia by pushing up to their borders in too many places for them to militarily defend at once with their limited troops.
Long-term I think they want enlargement to indoctrinate the peoples there with anti-Russia sentiment and eventually throw them into a grand conflict with Russia to cause enough internal trouble, instability and profit loss to allow a coup to replace Putin with someone more pliant to the west. They’re not giving up, there are degrees of success for the US and though Ukraine hasn’t succeeded as much as they hoped they’ve in some way’s strengthened their hand by pulling Europe inescapably into their orbit it seems (reactionary populism though could undo that in the next decade or two).
Edit The west is very guileful, very dangerous. They suspect they're not strong enough to pin and hold down Russia and China, let alone defeat them. So instead they implement a short-medium-term plan to create armies against Russia, to put down propaganda and create a sea of hostility around them that can be used to pin them while leaving all of the imperial core and NATO resources free to go after China. They are not bad strategists.
Same thing as when the US lost in Afghanistan. Lots of cry babies and that's basically it. All these countries are just chess pieces to them.
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Donbass is a part of Russia now, the referendum has been held, it has been officially annexed, the status of the new republics enshrined in the constitution. It will not become independent again, and the people there do not want independence, they wanted to be part of Russia. The de facto independence phase was a compromise they had to settle for because Russia wouldn't accept them yet as long as they still held out hope that Ukraine would abide by the Minsk accords. That phase ended after the negotiations failed last year.
East / West
austerity and QoL to be sacrificed for a new permanent European arms industry (probably a subsidiary of US arms).WW3 fr fr by 2050 to try to Balkanize Russia and suck it's resources for western crap-it-all-ism. Oh and Naizs all over the leadership being more brazingly Nazi.
for a new permanent European arms industry (probably a subsidiary of US arms).
It don't look like that. US is whining for more arms expenses from its NATO vassals, but at the same time deindustrialize Europe. It's clear they want all those expenses flow to US MIC and to further dependence of EU on USA, so it will never pivot in another direction. It is after all, one of the primary goals of the Ukraine war.
“The west didn’t even want that territory anyhow!”
Blowback season 10 or so will be dope. Especially because most of us witnessed it first hand.
I'm curious what would happen after the current war-time surge of jingoism cools down in Russia and people notice their material conditions do not improve
Improving material conditions at home was not the goal or aim of this war, and nobody expects it to. Everyone knew they would have to tighten their belts to make it through western sanctions, but that was the only way. The only alternative was to not go to war, and suffer even more in the future during 90s 2.0 balkanization boogaloo.
The west will be in a much worse spot than Russia. Russia will be recently victorious and one of the leaders of the new multipolar world, with its sanctions falling off as the desperate west tries to rebuild its own economy after de-dollarization.
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Bush will come out of retirement for one more job; donning the flight suit for a victory lap
"Dubya, we need you. You're still the best damn war criminal this country's got!"
"You son of a b****, I'm in!"
