How much should you worry about a collapse of the Atlantic conveyor belt?

It’s not yet game over for the AMOC. As we discussed in part one of this post, the actual observations of 3D AMOC flow through the North Atlantic are still too brief to separate natural variations from long-term trends. And a modest decrease observed over the last 40 years has just been revised in an even more modest direction.

More papers on AMOC evolution, including follow-up studies by several of the authors above, are already in the pipeline. And more forecasts of AMOC-collapse timing are surely on the way. Some 100 presentations and posters related to AMOC were featured in December at the American Geophysical Union’s 2024 annual meeting in Washington, D.C.

There are myriad ways to adapt to climate change that’s already unfolding or imminent, many of them spotlighted here at Yale Climate Connections, such as moving to higher ground and making communities more heat-resilient. It’s far less clear how one might prepare at this point for a possible AMOC collapse, given the huge uncertainties in both the timing and details of potential impacts.

Perhaps the best way to channel AMOC anxiety would be to work toward emission reductions that could help prevent or at least forestall an AMOC collapse in the first place. That can include everything from demanding climate action on the local, state, and federal levels to talking climate with neighbors and colleagues, as well as inspiring others by example through a lower-emissions lifestyle.