Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.
The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.
Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.
Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful. Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section. Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war. Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis. Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language. https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one. https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts. https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel. https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator. https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps. https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language. https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language. https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses. https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
And just like that, the Baath government in Syria is no more. I'm very emotional right now, many mixed feelings, one part of me is very happy and relieved, another part knows that some American and Israeli ghouls are sharing my happiness, which makes me question that happiness. There's much to dissect in the events of these last 10 days, we'll do that slowly and carefully over the next weeks. But wow, I can't believe that this even happened. 14 years, what was even the point of all this pain and destruction? Congrats to Jolani, he has cemented his place in the history books as the conqueror of Syria, he did what Alloush, Baghdadi and countless others couldn't do. Assad goes into the trashcan of history, another failson goes.
I think this is the end for baathism as an ideology, another form of regional socialism may rise but that branch is probably over
I dont think the transitional goverment will be stable, in just the rebels there are simply too many factions that will now try to take over, plus you have others like the alawites and kurds who if they dont like the terms of the new gov will probably make their own independent states.
I hope it just doesnt develop into another civil war
Baathism definitely goes into the trashcan of history now, parasitic ideology that took Nasser's beautiful pan-Arab socialism and turned it into father and failson hereditary dictatorship. I can't predict anything about the future right now, but I hope Jolani keeps behaving well.
Yeah this shit sucks dude. I was never really on board with all the pro Assad posting (though I did always get a chuckle out of the Who Must Go memes) but the last thing I would want is this outcome. This is gonna be so bad. That is a hell of a power vacuum and western vultures are gonna swoop right in to pick apart the bones of what is left behind.
Jolani will probably get killed by some other radical Islamic terrorist group. If the Syrian Army knew Assad was a fucking idiot, why didn't they ask the Iranians or Russians to help them remove him?
I guess the Syrian Arab Republic really was very corrupt and it was a miracle it lasted for 14 years after the civil-war started. I doubt we will ever see Assad again, no way he will be the head of any warlord-esque rump state in Syria, he is probably in the UAE.