Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Bulletins and News Discussion from December 2nd to December 8th, 2024 - May A Hundred Hazel Flowers Bloom - COTW: Russia
Image is of one of the six salvos of the Oreshnik missile striking Ukraine.
The Oreshnik is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that appears to split into six groups of six submunitions as it strikes its target, giving it the appearance of a hazel flower. It can travel at ten times the speed of sound, and cannot be intercepted by any known Western air defense system, and thus Russia can strike and conventionally destroy any target anywhere in Europe within 20 minutes. Two weeks ago, Russia used the Oreshnik to strike the Yuzhmash factory in Ukraine, particularly its underground facilities, in which ballistic missiles are produced.
Despite the destruction caused by the missile, and its demonstration of Russian missile supremacy over the imperial core, various warmongering Western countries have advocated for further reprisals against Russia, with Ukraine authorized by the US to continue strikes. Additionally, the recent upsurge of the fighting in Syria is no doubt connected to trying to stretch Russia thin, as well as attempting to isolate Hezbollah and Palestine from Iran; how successful this will have ended up being will depend on the outcome of the Russia and Syrian counteroffensive. Looking at recent military history, it will take many months for the Russians and Syrians to retake a city that was lost in about 48 hours.
Even in the worst case scenario for Hezbollah, it's notable that Ansarallah has had major success despite being physically cut off from the rest of the Resistance and under a blockade, and it has defeated the US Navy in its attempts to open up the strait. Israel has confirmed now that their army cannot even make significant territorial gains versus a post-Nasrallah, post-pager terrorist attack Hezbollah holding back its missile strike capabilities. In 2006, it also could not defeat a much less well-armed Hezbollah and was forced to retreat from Lebanon.
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Israel-Palestine Conflict
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against Israel. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on Israel's destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
English-language PalestineResist telegram channel.
More telegram channels here for those interested.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Defense Politics Asia's youtube channel and their map. Their youtube channel has substantially diminished in quality but the map is still useful.
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don't want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it's just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists' side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR's former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR's forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster's telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a 'propaganda tax', if you don't believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
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Given the situation seems dire it seems credible. This seems like it's too late though, unless the US would start using their assets in the region to help.
What will Assad's fall mean for the Axis of Resistance?
Imo it changes very little.
Hezbollah will need to smuggle its weapons through Syria but this won't be very difficult. Some losses will be incurred but most will get through.
Besides this, not much? Gaza and the west bank will go on as they have. Hezbollah is probably in a rebuilding phase. I suspect south Lebanon is not goign to be recovered.
Hamas is unaffected. They've been cut off from everywhere and making do by themselves for a long time. They themselves seem to support the islamist rebels in Syria rather than Assad.
The situation for Israel itself is unchanged, they are not strengthened by this and are still on course to collapse unless they can bring and end to fighting, rocket/drone attacks, the blockade by the houthis, fix the international divestments and boycotts.
A charitable interpretation is that Israel has regained some aerial assets that it was committed to using to regularly bomb Assad.
The minorities in Syria are probably fucked though.
"They themselves seem to support the islamist rebels in Syria rather than Assad."
What is this based on? Ive only sern an interview with someone who apparently wasnt in Hamas anymore then and nothing else. Would be szrange if they supported a faction who explixitly seek good terms with israel
I haven't checked the evidence but was told by some people i trust that it was the case in 2015 so I've had little reason to check into the current position, I'm not sure they're in the business of meeting up and making formal organisational statements at the moment either.
This apparently strained their relations with hezbollah and iran considerably in the past.
This is essentially my position, yeah. Hopefully it also delivers a firm message to Pezeshkian to redouble support and to not hesitate as much any more, nor sign any backroom deals. Of all the organizations for the Resistance to lose, Syria is probably the least impactful. It did very little over the last year directly against Israel and its most useful factor is who it borders; smuggling is universal and unstoppable, the strongest governments in history never managed to stamp it out.
It's very important to take a step back and think in terms of resources and assets.
The biggest harm to the region this does is the potential that this brings about an extremist islamist state.
If this happens it will of course become a great justification for Israel to wage war on it, and to take the land for Greater Israel.
I mean isis hasn't attacked pisrael in the past. The isis inside/friendly rebels on the outside provides quite the asset to cia, to train anti-russia/china/whole central asia tbh rebels.
I rather suspect the biggest danger is them doing that, than attacking pisrael. Accounts posting friendly coverage of them very suspiciously talk about chechnya/uzbekistan/xinjiang/iraq, and not a word of palestine (i assume those are bots of pisrael or qatar, but whatever it shows shaping of direction)
I'm not saying they'll attack izreichell. I'm saying that the israeli supremacists will have every excuse they need to fulfill their dream of biblical Greater Israel expansion. There will be little political opposition to them fighting religious extremists compared to Gaza.
I rather think they don't because cia says so, pisrael is usa's pony not the other way around. They paid for hospitals for those fsa/al nusra rebels, i'd rather think they'll go along with a charade, unless they are attacked. Rebels for the same reasons won't attack them, and will do the above.
but this won't be very difficult. Some losses will be incurred but most will get through.
What's the basis for these parts of the claim?
I don't have evidence just vibes. Seen a lot of smuggling over the years. It gets through even in better and more secure states. Syria will be anything but.
US will probably identify some of it and bomb it in transit but I think it'll be a small amount. Vibes really. The transportation itself will be harder and require more effort to hide it though.
But put it this way, if the US/Israel knew of the shipments already they'd have bombed them even with Assad in power. The change in power won't amount to a tangible change in information of weapon shipments until the state becomes far far stronger.
Interesting angle that I haven't considered. From how the coalition of jihadists barely tolerate each other and will almost certainly begin fracturing, possibly on ethnonational lines, there probably won't be a strong anti-resistance state anytime soon.
To stop smuggling, a strong (anti-resistance) state has to be build, which would involve the strongest warlord taking out his rivals in a brutal civil war, and this warlord would have to entirely focus on offing his rivals before doing anything else. He can't exactly send troops to Lebanon to fight Hezbollah because troops that are in Lebanon fighting Hezbollah won't be in Syria fighting rival warlords' troops. An uneasy truce between warlords would just mean a weak/non-existent state that can't meaningfully police its borders and stop smuggling. Worst case scenario for the Resistance is probably if an anti-resistance warlord controls territory that borders Lebanon and Jordan and has consolidated his hold enough that he can't be easily dislodged.
The people of Syria are absolutely fucked though.
Worst case scenario in my opinion is the US decides to back one of them entirely to destroy the others and consolidate the state, possibly under the agreement the kurds are left alone (not even sure of that).
Yeah, that's the really bad scenario. He could also leverage his status as America's golden boy to get the other warlords to lay down their arms. I don't know what the best case scenario would be. Most likely it would be an anti-Resistance state where the state is too busy state-building to be too much of an obstacle to the Axis of Resistance and Syrians within this state live in okayish living conditions. But I don't think that's going to happen at all.
I don't think that's viable. leaders might stand down but this would just give rise to new factions as it would change the differences between groups that make them seethe at each other.
Yeah the resistance to Israel has taken a blow, but they are in no way going to stop fighting. It has entered a new stage.
Assuming the new government is aligned with Israel, it means Hezbollah loses its re-supply lines with Iran.
I refuse to believe Israel will just win again and again forever. I don't care how delusional that makes me, I don't care if I'm wrong, I'm sick of colonial powers getting to do whatever they want forever and ever. This one loss isn't the end of the resistance, and it ain't forever.
Why does it feel like half of y'all are giving up just because ISIS is doing what it's always done?
Why does it feel like half of y'all are giving up just because ISIS is doing what it's always done?
what do you mean by "giving up"? Do you think Assad's government will persist if hexbear.net supports him hard enough? Posting isn't praxis
Of course we aren't affecting the outcome of the war here! Of COURSE Syria is still doomed to years of slightly reskinned ISIS rule, AGAIN! I simply don't like the implication that this means Israel is suddenly going to bounce back from failing to do anything but throw tantrums and murder indiscriminately for over a year and somehow instantly claim all of that territory as "Greater Israel". The armor, missiles and men they've lost already will take years to restock if they can at all. Even the USA is running out of shit to give them!
It ain't over until it's over.
The armor, missiles and men they've lost already will take years to restock if they can at all. Even the USA is running out of shit to give them!
Please understand that for a nuclear armed genocidal state, itβs never going to get to them conceding defeat after running out of weapons. When small arms and conventional weapons are no longer available, theyβre just going to escalate to tactical nukes, and if they really are going to be militarily defeated, nuke the entire region so nobody else can have it.
Whenever there's a complex/bad situation developing, there's always a feeling of doom and catastrophism here, and it produces a feedback loop where it makes people with more balanced/positive opinions shy away, thereby further increasing the concentration of catastrophism. I've tried resisting it, I've tried fighting it, and now I'm just ignoring it until the situation is clarified.
Don't worry about what's going on in Syria - the Resistance is still in its ascendancy over Israel. Israel has done even worse against Hezbollah than expected by even the pessimists, Israel does not have the military or economic capability to create Greater Israel (it would first have to, y'know, re-expand into its own borders and re-settle the northern settlers), its land army is large but incompetent, its air forces are becoming increasingly unimportant as they are unable to create military victories.
Raw comparisons of casualty numbers are misleading to the point of doing hasbara; look at literally any successful anti-colonial war, the natives always took massive losses compared to the settler forces and yet still won. North Vietnam had 3-4x the military losses (let alone civilian) of the imperialist side, and yet they won. 4-5x times as many Algerian soldiers died as French soldiers, and guess who had control of the country at the end? Guess who took heavier losses in WW2 between Nazi Germany and the USSR. Guess who won. It's simply not a statistic you can take out of context to judge the progress of any war, but especially anti-imperialist and/or guerrilla wars. The full picture demonstrates that both Israel and Hezbollah are battered and bruised, but Hezbollah is the clear victor when judged from any historical standpoint; it's actually pretty incredible the degree to which they won, considering that wars of this type often involve heavy land losses before the settler forces are attrited and repelled, and often last years, while (if the ceasefire holds, which it may or may not) this one was really over in a couple months.
North Vietnam had 3-4x the military losses (let alone civilian) of the imperialist side, and yet they won.
βYou can kill ten of my men for every one I kill of yours. But even at those odds, you will lose and I will win.β
I mean defeating israel is done in the west, not the east. Again, bds blah blah but denying 1 million of sales of israel goods is equal to no work for a settler for 20 years.
Deny sales of a 10 billion worth of products in a year, and suddenly its noticeable on balance books. I don't think its that impossible to convince 100 friends not buying sodastream/hp/puma/poisoned fruits, and find a million people to do it.
imo the new government, if one even forms before collapsing into infighting again, probably won't be solid enough to prevent smuggling through syria.
This is basically my only hope
unless the US would start using their assets in the region to help
isn't the US-creature FSA at least part of the attack on Damascus? lmao
lmao US is about to get their dream handed on a plate so either this is utter BS or Assad really thinks Biden would suddenly turn face out of nowhere and save his ass
In my opinion this was probably communicated when Aleppo was attacked and is only being reported now.
If it's being done now it's just complete and total desperation. It makes much more sense that this was attempted right at the start.